Irrefutable Southern Logic - There Are Many Ways Between Here And There, But One Is Best

Many times over the years I have heard people complain about tournaments and how they are just festivals of luck. At the end, everybody gets short and then it’s just all about going all-in. I’ve tried to explain that their mistake lies in what happened before that hand, when they got ten big blinds all-in with A-K, and they generally reply with something completely dismissive of what happened before the last hand, like, “but he called with A-Q and sucked out! I run so bad! Everything is different if that hand holds!” While this is correct, it is shortsighted of what got them to ten big blinds in the first place, and that road is generally littered with mistakes. For the next thousand words I will try to explain the middle stages of tournament poker and maintaining a healthy stack.

I consider the middle stages of a tournament to start when there are antes in play, the average stack is reasonably higher than starting stack, average big blinds per stack are much lower than the beginning, and players are starting to go broke regularly. This is when we begin to consider our long term goal and executing a plan of destruction on our foes. In whitewater rafting, I learned that the best way to make it through a rapid I have never seen before is to start at the end. There I see where I want to be and then work my way backwards. If I want to be there then, the easiest way to get there is from that spot. The easiest way to that spot is that way, and to get that way I need to enter on the left here. I approach poker both on macro and micro scales with this method. I want to win the tournament, and the easiest way to do that is to have a bunch of chips at the final table. Having chips before the final table helps me accumulate chips when there are two tables left, and having chips on the bubble helps me accumulate chips then too, helping my goal of having chips before the final table. That means that between now and then I need to pick up enough chips to make a run at the final table, rather than just hoping I get there.

Obviously if the raft sinks then these goals are futile. Take a line too aggressively, smash into a rock, boat is upside down. I’ve smashed many rafts and stacks on hard things and I have learned from every one of them. Sometimes I made a mistake, sometimes it wasn’t my fault, but either way, if my boat doesn’t make it to the bottom of the rapid, then it doesn’t matter the good things I did in the first half of the descent. So, like in the early stages of tournaments, don’t punt. Don’t beat yourself up too much either for the occasional mistake though, because mistakes will be made if you are playing aggressively.

Aggression is key in the middle stages of tournaments. “M” (popularized by Dan Harrington) is the most important concept in these levels, not the big blind size or average stack. One “M” is the cost of an orbit, big blind plus small blind plus antes. At 1,000-2,000 blinds, with a 300 ante, and a ten-handed table, each “M” is 6,000. If your stack is 60,000 that’s pretty good, 10 “M”s. That means you can see ten complete orbits, a hundred hands, before running out of chips. The problem with this is that the blinds are going to be going up soon, and folding down to a six big blind stack or so is tragic. Even over a hundred hands, which represents 90-120 minutes of live poker, only about three of these hands will be 9-9 plus, and two will be A-Q plus. That’s five percent of hands. Many players play this tightly, and their stacks erode beneath them until eventually they shove six big blinds with jacks, get called by A-5 offsuit, lose, and then they wonder why they run so bad. Therefore we need to find spots to pick up chips with speculative hands or else wither away.

It’s all about winning small pots to keep your stack growing slightly. Obviously big hands will clash and big pots will happen, but he who wins the most small pots can lose the most big pots. I am actively trying to win every single chip I can get my paws on when antes are in play without giving anything away.

Preflop steals need to be added to your opening range. If you have a hand that merits raising, then by all means, raise. That isn’t a steal, that is a value bet. Sometimes you won’t have anything but they might fold though. At 1,000-2,000 blinds with a 300 ante, at a nine-handed table, there is 5,700 in the pot. Folds to you, steal or pass? Making a preflop raise of 5,000 means that if everybody folds slightly less than half the time then we instantly turn a profit. It doesn’t matter what our cards are because either everybody is folding or we are losing our preflop prop bet. If you estimate opponents to only be folding 25 percent of the time, then your cards do matter, because stealing is not profitable.

Stealing pots after the flop should follow that same risk-to-reward principle. There’s 10,000 in the pot, I bet 5,000. Opponents only need to fold 34 percent of the time for my flop bet to be profitable. Again, my cards don’t matter if they are folding. If opponents are only folding 25 percent of the time, then my cards do matter, because bluffing the flop is not profitable.

Estimate these ranges is poker. You have to predict your opponents’ most likely actions based on limited information. Sometimes they play way too tight, and I am bluffing constantly. Sometimes they play way too loose, and I get upset at myself for trying to bluff because they don’t fold. Sometimes they play perfectly, in which case I am truly engaging in a variance festival and need to pick a different game. Always be growing your stack, keeping the long term goal of winning the most money in your sights at all times. ♠

Bryan Devonshire has been a professional poker player for nearly a decade and has more than $2 million in tournament earnings. Follow him on Twitter @devopoker.