Irrefutable Southern Logic - If they’re going to fold, and you don’t have anything, might as well get ‘em to fold.

Now that we have made it through the middle stages of the tournament, everyone’s sights are set on the money. Players are busting out more slowly as they become more risk averse with the money approaching. Strategy from here until the money varies greatly with stack size and table dynamics. Sometimes it is correct to play every single hand, sometimes our opponents will automatically assume that we never have anything.

In my previous column, we discussed sailing through the middle stages, and if things have gone our way then we have a healthy and above average stack. The closer we get to the money, the more we should be looking to get players to fold hands that they otherwise wouldn’t. I have seen players fold aces on the bubble, but I haven’t seen anybody fold aces two away from the money.

As with every other hand of poker, we must evaluate the likelihood of making money on the hand. Sometimes our cards are good enough to merit putting more money into the pot. Sometimes our opponents are going to fold often enough to make raising profitable regardless of what cards we are holding, and even if we assume never winning after the flop. This can be quantified quite easily by assigning ranges to opponents preflop. For example, it folds to us in the cutoff. We estimate that button will call or reraise 22 percent of the time, small blind at 11 percent, and big blind at 28 percent. Therefore, all three players will fold (78/100) * (89/100) * (72/100) = 499,824/1,000,000, or just shy of 50 percent of the time. Now, given blinds of 1500-3000 (500 ante), this means that there will be around 8,500 in the pot preflop. If we get folds 50 percent of the time with a raise to 8,000, then we profit about 500 every time we take this opportunity. If we can get folds just as often with a raise to 6,500, then we are making 2,000 each time.

The key to seeing these spots is doing this math problem on the fly. Correctly evaluating how often an opponent is going to fold, on this hand, is essential to effective stealing. Pay attention to your opponents and learn their tendencies. Sometimes they will telegraph their intentions. There are plenty of times that I am in middle position but can raise with nothing because I know several players behind me are folding 100 percent of the time.

As we approach the bubble, these ranges do silly things. Some players get extremely tight, other players will play more hands, assuming that I too am playing more hands. If they never fold, then there is no reason to put money into the pot unless it is with the best hand. When they do fold, it doesn’t matter what my hand is.

When doing this math, remember that we are simply evaluating the odds of them folding right now. If they reraise, then I am folding, and my cards don’t matter. If they call, it is likely that I have the worst hand. Sure, sometimes I will win the pot, but many times I will lose chips too, since my hand is worst.

We can expand this principle to any bluffing situation. Deduce the percentage of times opponents will fold and do a math problem. If they’re folding 40 percent of the time, a half-pot sized continuation bet (c-bet) is profitable, while a pot-sized bet is not. Usually players will fold to a pot-sized bet more often than a half-pot sized bet, but the point is that all these spots can simply be broken down into math problems.

In the context of the bubble, it is often best to attack stacks smaller than yours, but not too short. Stacks of fewer than 20 big blinds fold less often than stacks in the 20-40 big blind range. Since the short stack can shove widely, it is better to attack the medium stacks that have more to lose. Covering these stacks allows great leverage with the money looming. These stacks are less likely to voluntarily put money in the pot, increasing our opportunity to win the pot with napkins.

Sometimes we are going to be in that short-to-medium stack range, and except at the softest of tables, we are likely going to have to tighten up. ICM is a concept that I bring up here from time to time. ICM stands for Independent Chip Model, and represents the fact that a tournament chip won is worth less than each chip acquired before it. Simply put, doubling up now will not double your chances of winning the tournament and therefore cannot double your equity. ICM essentially adds several percentage points to where our equity needs to be to risk chips, and closer to the bubble this factor is increased.

When near the money and short stacked, your first mission is to make it to the money. Even when extremely short stacked, scoring that min-cash is a big part of your return on investment (ROI) percentage. Do not punt, rather, protect those last few chips desperately. This does not mean that I am folding aces ever. Nor am I folding any other big hands. But I am going to feel like I made a mistake every time I lose chips with a poor hand.

With fewer than 20 blinds, I am not going to be stealing. Min-raising and folding before the flop is going to deplete my stack by at least 10 percent. I’m going to open hands that I think are the best. I’m going to reraise all-in with hands that I think are the best or when I think my fold equity is great enough. With a medium stack, I’m going to be playing a nitty form of small ball, doing my best to win small pots without ever risking my entire stack.

The bubble is a great time to accumulate chips. Pounce on the players playing too tight, but don’t bluff off your stack, because missing the money when this close to the cash is a tragedy. ♠

Bryan Devonshire has been a professional poker player for nearly a decade and has more than $2 million in tournament earnings. Follow him on Twitter @devopoker.