Head Games: Formulating a Plan On the March to the Final Table with With Aaron Massey, Brandon Leopard, Eric Blair, and David Chicotsky

Craig Tapscott: How does your play change and adjust as you get down to the final two tables of a tournament?

Aaron Massey: As I approach the final table, I treat the entire situation as one huge bubble. If possible, I try to apply as much pressure as possible, with both big and short stacks. With pay jumps usually every three places and the big money close in sight, I know that tensions are high with every elimination.  

I treat the final two tables as a hand-for-hand scenario, even though it’s not. I probably pay most attention to the other players’ stack sizes, and their experience. I will try to make optimal decisions based on my interpretation of their understanding of this high-equity situation we are in. It’s interesting to have less experienced opponents as you approach the final table, because your optimal strategy against each opponent will differ based on how much they know, how they play, and how they leave themselves exploited. It’s up to you to figure it out.

Different players have different leaks. Generally I’m attacking the less experienced players while staying assertive enough to correctly take spots against the other good players who are also trying to mash. If I am lucky enough to have an above-average stack, I will definitely be more inclined to take a few more spots, since I can afford it. I’m confident in my short-stack game and sometimes I will gamble a bit as the final table approaches.

Brandon Leopard: I’m most importantly thinking about getting a top-three finish where all the money resides. If I’m multitabling online, I will increase my focus on the tournament nearing the final table. I’ll start to watch for player tendencies that I haven’t run across already in the tournament. 

If I’m short stacked, I’m working on a perfect shove range using Nash equilibrium adjusted against each opponent. The shove ranges are pretty well ingrained in my game by now. But sometimes it’s all about survival, and there is no shame in playing tight poker. If I’m a mid-to-large stack, I’m going to use my position to apply pressure as often as possible, especially when the tournament is between 10-to-14 people. Even a middle stack can easily chip up to a top-three chip stack with some well-applied aggression.

All of this is dependent on the other players. Of course, if my table is full of maniacs, I’m just going to wait for easily exploitable situations. If everyone is tight, I will be three-betting light. Also I will occasionally cold four-bet when I am nearing the final table. It is one of the strongest plays in the game since it usually sets you up for a big hand when you four-bet your monster hands after. The final two tables are undoubtedly the best place to “change gears” constantly so that situations can be manipulated in your favor.

Eric Blair: I wouldn’t say my play changes all that much. I definitely like to look around at the other players and see who I think is scared to play big pots, etcetera. If so, I might go after them a bit with some three-bets.

I think it’s important to guess how other players view you as well. Know your image. If they think you’re a crazy-aggressive Internet kid you should probably slow down and wait for some hands.

David Chicotsky: First of all, you need to know where you stand in the tournament in order to gauge your overall tournament equity and the appropriate steps you’ll need to take to maximize it. If you’re low man on the totem pole, you’ll need to play a hyper-aggressive style in order give yourself a chance at getting top three in the tournament, much less making the final table. If you’re one of the chip leaders you’ll want to pick on weakness, namely the smaller stacks. The larger your stack, the more small pots you’ll want to enter — distributing your risk and giving yourself the best shot at continuing to chip up without getting knocked down.

The old cliché still holds true, play the opposite of the players at your table. Players tend to make a big deal out of the bubble; it’s worth noting that the final table bubble is the biggest bubble of the tournament. Manage your equity considerations properly, while doing your best to accumulate chips.

Generally speaking, you’ll be butting heads with the two players directly to your left, as well as your right — so you’ll want to have a solid understanding as to their tendencies (and exploit them appropriately). When you get to the final two tables, you’ll often be seated with players you’ve played with throughout the day as well as new players. This is the time to review all of your mental notes on these players, as you’ll want to put them to good use when you merge onto the final table. At the same time, don’t over-complicate things. You’ve gotten this far in the tournament, so play towards your strengths and continue to make sure you don’t make any critical errors.

Craig Tapscott: Once you’ve made it to the final table how do you go about formulating a plan?

Aaron Massey: I never really have any specific game plan for the final table or tournaments in general. All my decisions are game flow and opponent dependent. They are also situational, so having a set strategy is kind of lame. I will definitely evaluate my table draw before we begin play though. It’s important to be aware of where the better players are seated, and how that may affect game flow. Specifically, how will each player’s position at the table affect my game flow. I’m also very aware of each player’s stack size, where they are positioned, and how I think they will play the stack they have. I take all of this into consideration, but when the cards are in the air I just play.

If I come into a final table short stacked, I just make sure to take my time before making every decision, since it could be my last. At this point, I have so much experience that many short-stacked situations are straightforward. If anything, I’ll try to exploit good and bad players with my short-stack play, but it is up to me to find out how to effectively accomplish this. I have to make decisions based on how much I think they know about push/fold strategy. From there it’s really easy. 1) Get it in good and hold or 2) Get it in bad and ruin someone else’s day. I’ve been trying to perfect both of these strategies, but to no avail (laughs).

Brandon Leopard: When I reach the final table, I will sometimes research each player individually and understand what this final table means to each opponent. If someone with an ABI (average buy-in) of $50 is playing an $11 tournament, then you can likely assume they will take more risks than a player who’s ABI is $3 and hasn’t had much success. For players where a win would be considered a “great score” for them, I will be constantly putting them in Independent Chip Model (ICM) situations. For wild players, I’ll just be patient and wait for spots to pick them off. 

It’s all so dynamic. I always make an effort to slow down each decision. Taking an extra 5-10 seconds for each decision seems to make me feel the vibe of the table much easier and it also seems to keep your opponents on their toes a bit more. It’s also imperative to eliminate anything that could cause tilt. If I take a bad beat, I will take a few deep breaths and use a quick meditation to reset my focus. Any break should be used to completely clear your mind of poker. When you are playing, your focus and goal should always be on winning. It’s so difficult to stay in this mindset through the bad beats, but when you do and you win, it seems effortless. Mindset is key, attitude is everything.

Eric Blair: You can never have an exact plan going into a final table since the cards dictate so much of the action. A lot of hands play themselves once the stacks are shallow enough where the money is just going in preflop no matter what. When going in short stacked, it’s so important to stay patient and not be embarrassed by sitting on eight-to-twelve BBs. Two double ups and you could be chip leader.

David Chicotsky: Once you’ve made the final table, or what I call the promised land, you’ll want to again take notice of the various chip stacks. I like to break the stack sizes into categories: you might have three biggies, two middle stacks, two short stacks and two tiny stacks. Lumping the stacks together like this makes it easier to keep track of, as you’ll need to re-categorize them as each hand plays out. Being aware of the stack sizes at the table is just one component to being properly situationally aware — part of your due diligence process.

If you’re coming to the final table as a short stack, you’ll want to weigh the need for getting all-in to accumulate with the cost associated with going out before the other short stacks. There’s no golden rule here, you’ll simply need to make estimation-based judgment calls as play progresses. If you’re a bigger stack, you’ll have to strike a balance between going for more chips and simply waiting out the short stacks. Many times you’ll be able to play tight for a level or two — once the blinds and antes increase, and put even more pressure on the shorter stacks (providing ample opportunities for you to either push into them or snap them off when they are forced to shove light).

Keep it simple; look to exploit tight players to your left and loose players to your right. If you’re one of the bigger stacks, you’ll do well to avoid getting tangled up with other large stacks, as very likely both of you will lose expected tournament equity in these situations. Don’t just play your cards; play the players and their chip stacks.♠