Winning Poker Tournaments – Hand No. 42

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. In Volume III, PearlJammer, Rizen, and Apestyles analyze the same hands and then I give a summary of lessons learned at the end of the hand. This article looks at hand No. 42.

Seat 1 Small Blind (SB): 785,268
Seat 2 (Hero) Big Blind (BB): 947,976
Seat 3 Under-the-gun (UTG): 1,100,457
Seat 4 Cutoff: 168,736
Seat 5 Button: 309,563

10,000-20,000 Blinds, 2,000 Ante

Setup: There are two tables remaining in a nightly $70,000 guaranteed tournament with a $55 buy-in. The seat directly to your left is the tournament chip leader, and you are second in chips. He has been aggressively taking control of the table while using his positional advantage to make it difficult for you to pick up chips. Given the situation, you’ve been playing fairly snugly, even though a lot of the middle-sized stacks have been playing tight in an effort to make the final table.

Preflop ? ? (40,000): The cutoff moves all in for 166,736, and the action folds to you.
What is your calling range?

PearlJammer

Assuming I know nothing about how the cutoff has been playing, I would call with any pair, A-2 suited plus, A-7 offsuit plus, K-9 suited plus, K-10 offsuit plus, and Q-J suited.

Rizen

The cutoff player has only 8 big blinds (BB) and is probably desperate to pick up some chips, even though doing so may risk his chance of appearing at the final table. I need 41.51 percent equity in the pot to “break even” on this call. So if I assign a range of the top 25 percent of hands (likely conservative given how short stacked the cutoff is), his hands would include deuces plus, A-2 suited plus, A-7 offsuit plus, K-8 suited plus, K-9 offsuit plus, Q-8 suited plus, Q-10 offsuit plus, J-8 suited plus, J-10 offsuit, and 10-8 suited. In this scenario, a calling range with greater than 41.5 percent equity is deuces plus, A-2 suited plus, A-2 offsuit plus, K-9 suited plus, K-10 offsuit plus, Q-10 suited plus, Q-J offsuit plus, and J-10 suited.

However, doing these types of calculations at the table is very difficult. Doing them away from the table is very important, though, as it gives you a better feel for how specific hands fare against certain ranges. In the heat of the moment at the poker table, I would probably call with any ace, any pair, or any two cards ten or higher. Note that this excludes a few hands that are profitable against my opponent’s range, and includes a few hands that are not, but it is relatively close to the correct range. Years of practice running hands and ranges against each other has allowed me to be able to do a reasonable job of coming up with a decent range on the fly.

Apestyles

I face an all-in from the cutoff, the shortest stack at the table. If I call the cutoff’s all-in and win, I become the chip leader, and if I call the cutoff’s all-in and lose, I am still second in chips. The strategic elements of this hand could argue for a slightly looser calling range since the advantage and additional leverage I’ll have over the big stack could outweigh the disadvantage of losing the pot. Also, with five players at this table, there must be either 10 or 11 left in the tournament. If there are 10 left, that means that knocking out the cutoff would put me at the final table and possibly remove me from this disadvantageous situation in which the chip leader is to my left. Therefore, I would also be more inclined to call if there were ten and not eleven players left. With the two benefits of calling and winning outweighing the costs of calling and losing, I would most likely have a slightly looser calling range in the big blind than just straight chip equity dictates.

Without doing any exact calculations, I would assume that the villain’s range is relatively wide, but not quite as wide as it would be earlier in the tournament. He’s probably shoving any pair, any ace, any two Broadways, a number of suited connectors, and some suited K-x and Q-x hands. There is also some chance that he’s shoving a much tighter or even looser range than that, but without any information, I’d guess he’s shoving between 20 and 30 percent of the deck. Usually I’d call with about 20 to 25 percent of the deck, but because of the strategic factors I listed above, I’d loosen to around 33 percent of the deck, which is roughly deuces plus, A-x plus, K-4 suited plus, K-8 offsuit plus, Q-8 suited plus, Q-10 offsuit plus, J-8 suited plus, J-10 offsuit, and 10-9 suited.
Many players might argue calling with an even wider range, or calling any two cards because of the strategic elements, but I don’t like the idea of making intentionally minus expected value (EV) plays because of intangible strategic factors.

Matthew

There are some interesting dynamics that occur in tournament play with two shorthanded tables remaining. Sometimes, you are in a perfect situation where you can easily pick up chips by using your stack against your opponents who are trying to make a final table. In those situations, you might go out of your way not to eliminate an opponent so that you can continue to pick up chips easily.

In other cases, you might find yourself in a poor position. Then you may want the table to break, in the hopes of finding yourself in a better position at the final table. This hand is an example of the latter. Apestyles elects to call with a wider range than PearlJammer or Rizen, based on the merits of possibly eliminating his opponent and getting to the final table. As described, it is unclear whether there are 10 or 11 players remaining. That information would actually affect how wide Apestyles’ calling range might be.

Remember, chip equity isn’t the only factor to think about in a tournament. The top pros are always looking at the table dynamics and how they might change depending on the outcome of a hand.

Rizen called 146,738 with K-10 offsuit, and his opponent showed 9 8. Rizen won the pot when the board came K 6 4 2 Q.

_Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, publisher of Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III available at Amazon, iTunes, and other book stores in both print and e-book format. Also check out our iTunes app Poker Coach Pro for iPad or Holdem Pro for iPhone featuring automated analysis for the Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time series. _