Value Own The Pros

Lately I see more pro-level players in the lower level — $2-$5 and $5-$10 — no-limit games. I don’t have a clear definition for what it means to be “pro-level,” but the general sense is that simple tricks won’t work very often against these players. You can three-bet them light preflop, but they will defend in a roughly appropriate way. You can double-barrel them, but they will defend against that as well. They won’t just pay you off if you flop a set. They will pick off fairly obvious bluffs.

As you might expect, these players tend to play an aggressive style after the flop. (And they almost all play too loose preflop, but that’s an observation for another article.) If you react to their aggression in a typical way — if you play a hand like a “normal” reg would — they will have an answer for you. If you want to get a little edge on these players, however, there is one simple trick that works fairly well. You can try to value own them.

I’ve noticed a consistent weakness in these players’ games. They try to value bet the river too thinly in certain predictable situations. Here’s an example hand that I witnessed recently in a $2-$5 game.

Two players limped, and a poor player for the level raised to $15. The pro called from the cutoff. The button called. The small blind (SB) called with K Q. The limpers both called, so it was six to the flop with a $95 pot.

The flop came A 9 7, giving the SB a flush draw. He checked, and everyone checked to the pro. The pro bet $75. The button folded. The SB called, and everyone else folded. There was $245 in the pot.

The turn was the 6. The SB checked, and the button also checked.

The river was the 3. The SB checked again, and the button bet $80. The small blind shoved for $300 more. The pro looked bemused and rifled his cards into the muck.

This is a consistent, predictable error that these pros make. They try to bet rivers for value into hand ranges that are too strong. They do this because it feels weak to their aggressive sensibilities to check down top pair.

The key in this hand, as it is in many no-limit hand reading exercises, is the turn check. When the pro checks the straight-and-flush turn card, he’s essentially denying that he has a flush. With stacks what they are in this hand and a hand as strong as a flush, bet turn and shove river is nearly an automatic play for a pro-level player on the button.

When the pro bets into five players on the flop and then checks this turn card, he’s very often going to have just top pair. He might have a draw to go with the ace — hands such A J, A 10, or A 8.

He’s right to check the turn, since after that turn card, A-10 is not very strong anymore compared to what a typical player in the blinds would call $75 with on the flop.

But after the river bricks and the blind checks again, the pro just can’t resist. “Gee, maybe A-10 is good after all,” he thinks. “I can’t bet pot with it, but maybe I can put a small bet out and get looked up by a nine or ace, no kicker. Don’t want to miss value.”
If you have your opponent pegged correctly, after this board and action, when you check the river you’ll usually see a bet.

The thing about this bet, however, is that it’s not backed up by range strength. As the flop caller, you can have flushes, straights, two pair, and more. But the pro has denied many of these hands by checking back the turn. So the pro is betting what in reality is a weak hand into a strong range.

This begs for a check-raise, almost no matter what you hold.

A check-raise works great as a bluff here, because the moment you say raise, it will be blindingly obvious to the pro that he’s misstepped. You can have a flush, and he can’t. He had no business trying to value bet that relatively weak ace. Most pros will just eat the small loss and fold.

In fact, if you think back to the flop action, there aren’t too many bluff-worthy hands you can hold after this action. Maybe you flopped open-ended with 8-6 and paired the turn. Maybe you called the flop with ace, no kicker.

But this is the point. You have many possible strong hands and relatively few weak hands. He shouldn’t be value betting an ace, even after you check twice. You can turn all your weak hands — even hands like A-4 — into check-raise bluffs. In fact, if you hold A-4 you certainly should check-raise rather than check-call, because if you call you’re going to see a lot of A-J and A-10.

You might be thinking, “Well, if he’s going to fold to the check-raise, why play an actual flush this way?”

It’s a fair question. The answer is two-pronged. First, if you are always bluffing when you check-raise the river, you run the risk of being figured out by the pro. Second, if you play the flush in a “normal” way, there’s a good chance you won’t get paid. After all, this guy’s a pro-level player because he’s good at not paying off regs when they play flushes normally.

There are other ways to trick him with your flush. One way, for instance, is to fire a blocking-sized bet on the turn when the flush hits. Instead of checking the turn, you bet $70 into the $245 pot. The pro might interpret this to be a weak hand trying to probe for information.

You want to play a mixed strategy on the turn with your flushes. Some you bet and some you check. But if you check a turned flush, your pro-level opponent checks back, and the river bricks, strongly consider check-raising the river.

Final Thoughts

Pro-level players at a given level — for example, $2-$5 or $5-$10 — are, by definition, a step ahead of pack. If you play unimaginatively against these players, they will pick you apart. If you want to create edges against them, you have to think about what they’re doing and zero in on their weaknesses. Many of these pros are fairly good at mixing it up, but this tendency to value bet too thinly on the river seems to be a quite common failing.

Whenever the hand has played out in a way that marks a pro-level opponent with a likely top-pair hand (particularly if the nuts is nearly ruled out), checking with a plan to check-raise is often a strong plan. If you bet out, these players will likely handle the situation well. When you check, they might not be able to resist the value bet. When you know it’s coming, you can blast the errant bet with a check-raise. Make enough plays like these, and you will be playing like a pro yourself. ♠

Ed’s newest book, Poker’s 1%: The One Big Secret That Keeps Elite Players On Top is available now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can also find original articles and instructional videos by Ed at the brand new site redchipoker.com.