More About Bluffing: Part IX

One of the things that makes poker interesting intellectually to a game player is the number of factors that must be taken into consideration before one can make the correct decision.

In fact, there may not be any rational way to work out what is correct, especially with the limited amount of time available when actually playing a hand. Variables relating to your opponent, his current state of mind, recent history, and stack size add an overwhelming amount of complexity to seemingly simple situations. Picking up from the last column, let’s look at one relatively common situation and examine the options.

Here is a typical cash game situation: preflop after several folds you raised on the button with 7 6, as first-in. The big blind reraised, and you called. You both started the hand with around 200 big blinds (BBs). Now a flop of 10 4 3 arrives and he checks. As discussed in the previous column, you have a variety of plans available. Whatever plan you decide to follow, and it may depend on your opponent’s actions and the cards that come on the turn and river, you face an immediate and important decision. Should bet or check and take a free card?

It is always good to start by examining what you have, what you think your opponent has, and what he thinks you have. Before the flop as aggressive players, you both have wide ranges. You have a very weak hand, but it does have some potential. You have a gutshot draw to the nuts with any five. A spade gives you a draw to a low flush and a nine gives you a draw to a low straight. A six or seven will give you a low pair that might be good.

What does your opponent have? His range has become polarized. I would expect him to bet most of his intermediate hands. Why? If he has a hand like J-J, A-10, J-10, 9-9, 8-8, etcetera, he would probably bet. It is too dangerous to allow you a free card that might create an overpair for you. He might have a very good hand, like A-A or a set, and be planning to check-raise. He might have a weak hand hoping for a free hand that helps, like K-Q, 9-8 suited or 2-2. Note that even his weak hands currently have you beaten.
He knows your button raise could have been based on a wide range of hands, so he can’t really put you on any specific type of hand. He probably assumes you don’t have A-A or K-K or you would have four-bet preflop, although this isn’t guaranteed. Since you haven’t done anything yet on the flop, he can’t narrow your range.

There are 16 or 17 BBs in the pot. This assumes your button raise was to three BBs, and his reraise was to eight BB. The effective remaining stacks are around 190 BBs. Should you bet or check? Let’s examine each play to see what its advantages and disadvantages are.

If you check against his polarized range, you both get a free card. If he has a strong hand that was planning a check-raise or even a bluff that was planning a check-raise, you are much better off checking. Your weak hand will pretty much have to fold to a check-raise. This means you are losing the opportunity of winning a monster when he has a hand like a set, and the turn is a five. In this case, he will bet the turn and you will raise. You have a great chance to win all or most of his stack unless the board pairs on the river. This won’t happen often, but losing this opportunity is very costly.

You could bet. Clearly this bet is mostly bluff. Typically you would bet an amount that is at least half the pot, say 10 BBs, up to approximately the size of the pot, say 18 BBs. Presumably he will call the smaller bet more often, but if he has the strong hand and check-raises you will lose less. This bet will gain immediately when he folds. I would expect him to fold his weaker hands most of the time. He really doesn’t want to play a hand like Q-J suited, J-9 suited, or 2-2, out of position. For all he knows, some of his outs are tainted. Imagine calling with J-9 suited, when you have J-10. The turn jack that helps him, makes you two pair. With a nine you are still ahead with tens. Even if he is lucky enough to pick up a straight draw, he may still face a big bet on the turn. If your bluff gets these hands, which are already ahead, to fold, there is a big gain. Your bluff also seizes the initiative. Even if he calls, you can fire another bullet if the turn helps you. In fact, I would definitely fire again with a neutral turn, such as the board pairing threes. He may have ventured a speculative call, with overcards. Now he has to worry, that he is drawing to make a pair against an opponent who may already have a full house.

Is the correct action clear? Not really. Betting rates to win a small pot frequently, but checking will occasionally result in winning a huge pot. It helps if you have a read on your opponent (in live games) or use tracking software (online) to know his tendencies. Unless I suspected he had a strong hand, I would probably bet around 10 BBs one-third of time, bet 15 or 16 BBs another third, and check the remaining third. The reason I don’t bet every time, is that I don’t want my opponents to know that when they check the flop, I always bet. If they know I’ll always bet in this spot, they can check-raise all their good hands plus a lot of bluffs. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With 2 WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.