Why You Can’t Beat Low-limit Games — Part III

Parts I and II showed that you need a huge edge to overcome the high costs of low-limit games. If you haven’t read them, do it at cardplayer.com. Unless you see and believe the evidence, you’ll probably continue to play the same old way, lose money, and make the same silly excuses listed in Part I:

“There are too many idiots.”
“They don’t respect my raises.”
“They chase with weak draws.”
“My good hands don’t hold up.”
“I can’t push anybody off a hand.”

Accept That Frequent Bad Beats Are Inevitable.

This acceptance is absolutely essential. Bad beats can’t cause your long-term losses because you get them only when your opponents chase with weak hands. Since that mistake increases your expected value (EV) and profits, you should want them to call with weak hands, even though someone will frequently draw out on you. Frequent, painful bad beats are an inescapable part of most low-limit games.

If you can’t accept – without whining (openly or silently) – that painful fact, don’t play in low-limit games.

If you can’t accept it, but play anyway, you’ll probably lose money, and you’ll certainly get upset again and again. When you’re upset, you’ll probably make costly mistakes.

After accepting the game as it is, you can make intelligent adjustments. This column discusses game selection; future columns will discuss strategic adjustments. Game selection is always the most important poker decision, and, when the costs are high, it’s particularly important.

If you select the wrong games, nothing else matters much. To overcome the high costs, select games with:

• The best combination of rake, jackpot drop (R&JPD), and bonuses
• Spread-limits
• Many weak opponents
• The right kinds of weak opponents

Since you’ll rarely find games with everything you want, you should evaluate the entire package. For example, if the game with the best combination of bonuses and R&JPD has the toughest players, go somewhere else.

Best Combination of Rake, Jackpot Drop, and Bonuses

In Las Vegas the maximum rake is $3-to-$5, and the JPD is $0-to-$2. We’ll defer evaluating bonuses until a future column. It’s obviously harder to win with a larger R&JPD and poorer bonuses, but many people foolishly try.

Spread-Limits

Some states don’t allow no-limit games, but do allow very wide spreads such as $5-$60. Since they are not low-limit games, we’ll consider only small games such as $2-$6 and $2-$10. Unfortunately, only a few rooms offer them.

Because spread-limits make games more complex, skill becomes more important, increasing your edge. They offer weak forms of some of no-limit’s advantages without the huge swings. You can use two more skills than in fixed limit games: (1) Varying your bets; (2) Reading your weak opponents’ cards from the size of their bets.

Varying your bets: Betting a much larger percentage of the pot helps you to bluff and to protect your good hands. Larger bets also help you to exploit low-limit players’ major weakness, calling too loosely.

For example, if a $4-$8 player limps, you can raise only $4, and he and (sometimes) the BB get satisfactory odds to call. In $2-$6, you can raise $6, three times the limper’s and BB’s investment. If they fold, their investment becomes dead money. If they call, their odds usually make calling –EV.

The flop offers the same advantage. If you’re BB in a $4-$8 game and one player limps and the SB completes, the pot is $12. If you bet $4, your opponents risk $4 to win $16 (before the R&JPD which make the odds much worse). If you’re BB in a $2-$6 game with the same preflop action, the pot is only $6, and you can make a pot-sized bet. Your first opponent gets only 2-to-1 (before the R&JPD).

Bluffs are obviously more effective when you bet a larger percentage of the pot.
Paying off weak players usually costs less. They usually draw out on the turn and river. If you’re heads up, have aces, raised preflop, bet the flop and turn, and lose to a runner-runner flush, he pays the same amount to draw, but receives 25 percent less after drawing out. In $4-$8, he pays $20 ($8 preflop, $4 flop, and $8 turn) and wins $8 on the river. In $2-$6, he pays the same $20 ($8 preflop, $6 flop and turn), but wins only $6 on the river).

If he draws out on the turn, he pays more to draw, but wins less (pays $8 preflop, $6 flop, and wins $12 on the turn and river versus $8 pre-flop, $4 flop, and wins $16 on turn and river). These differences may sound trivial, but – over time – they add up.

You can also make blocking bets when you’re out of position against weak opponents. For example, you can bet $2 with fairly weak hands. If you checked, someone might bet the maximum, and you shouldn’t call. Of course, you shouldn’t make such bets into strong players. They would quickly recognize and exploit your predictability.

Reading your weak opponents’ cards: It’s obviously easier to read their cards when they can vary their bets. You have much more information, and you’ll slowly learn that some opponents make small bets with weak hands, while others have different patterns.
Many Weak Opponents

You can’t get a large enough edge unless your opponents are much weaker than you are. Don’t complain about “too many idiots.” Choose games that are full of them. I’m not kidding. Ignore those excuses for your bad results, and pick games with the weakest players. Most of your profits come from your opponents’ mistakes, and you want players who make one mistake after another.

Will they occasionally give you bad beats? Of course, they will, but you get bad beats only when you’ve been way ahead. Your edge is obviously bigger against the weakest players, and you must never forget that you need a huge edge to cover the high costs.

Since most players overestimate their own skills and underestimate their opponents, ask a coach or respected player to evaluate you and your opponents. Pick a critical, knowledgeable person who will tell you the truth you need to learn, not the lies you want to hear. (“You’re great, and they’re terrible.”)

The Right Kind Of Weak Opponent

Weak opponents aren’t enough. You need the right weaknesses. You probably can’t cover your costs unless most opponents are both loose and passive. In tight games the pots are so small that the R&JPD are an extremely high percentage of the pot. You need a much bigger edge in small pots, and your cards will rarely have a large enough edge over the quality hands tight opponents play.

In loose-aggressive games the pots will be large, but — because the pots are large and these players are hard to read — you’ll be forced to call with marginal hands.
With loose-passive players the pots are generally large, reducing the R&JPD’s impact. Your carefully selected hands have a large edge over theirs, and it’s easy to read their bets and raises. ♠

“Dr. Al” ([email protected]) coaches only on psychology issues. For information about seminars and webinars, go to propokerseminars.com. He is David Sklansky’s co-author of DUCY? and the sole author of four poker psychology books.