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March 9 — Oftentimes you should bet or raise large when you back into a hand that you perceive to be the nuts.

We all know that backdoor draws are very profitable in no-limit holdem. Especially if you have been the preflop raiser, it can sometimes be difficult for your opponent to see when you make a strong, backdoor hand, especially after continuation betting the flop and then checking the turn.

One of the best situations you can have happen to you is backing into a set that is lower than top pair on the river or backing into a straight. Backing into a flush is valuable too, but most opponents will see a three-flush on the board, and if you raise their river bet large, they may think twice about calling with a hand like top pair. However, if you run into something else strong and they bet on the river, you can really pound them and almost always expect them to call.

This type of situation occurred to me recently while playing at the Commerce Casino’s $5-$10 no-limit hold’em game. The action folded to me on the button and I raised to $35 with 7 7. The small blind in the hand had been playing rather loose preflop, but had been making some impressive thin value bets on rivers. He called, as did the big blind. We all had about $1,700 and saw a J 3 2 flop. The action checked to me, and I decided to make a protection/value bet of $55. The small blind called rather quickly, and the big blind got out of the way. The turn was the 9, completing the rainbow, and the small blind checked once again. I thought that this spot was kind of close, as I likely would not get a jack to fold and did not want a hand like a smaller pocket pair, or ace-high to fold, especially if this opponent was capable of bluffing the river. You could certainly make the case for betting here sometimes, but I decided to check. The river brought in the beautiful 7, giving me a very hidden set, and my opponent bet $165. I took a look at the board and analyzed the situation. There was literally no way that I could not have had the best hand, as I thought that this player would definitely reraise with pocket jacks or pocket nines preflop. I also thought that if I raised the river large, my hand would be confusing to my opponent, as I would be representing an extremely thin range—maybe even just 7-7.

I have seen other players make big sizing mistakes in similar situations, only raising to maybe $375 to ensure a call. However, in this case, I thought that I should raise a very large amount and made it $600. My opponent thought for about 20-30 seconds and called with J 9. After he tabled the hand, I wished that I had moved all in. There was no way I could have known that he had top two pair, but I doubt seriously that he would have found a fold with any jack.

March 15 — Against good players small pocket pairs from OOP are rarely profitable

If you are the type of player that limps in with any small pocket pair no matter what the position or opens for a raise and calls a three-bet if the effective stacks are deep enough, you might want to start rethinking your preflop strategy, especially against good players. In my normal game, which is $5-$10 no-limit hold’em, I normally open any pocket pair that I will play when I am first into the pot. But in smaller games like $5-$5, where raises get many calls and you do not have the normal stack depth to barrel people off of hands, I usually limp.

I have always preached the rule of 15 times the raise size in order to profitably set-mine. To put it simply, this means that if someone raises to $20, you need to have at least $300 effective stacks in order to call. You do flop a set more often than this, but this little equation tries to take into account the times when you flop a set and your opponent misses the flop or won’t give you action due to overcards to their pair.
But I think, especially in today’s games where even recreational players will do some light three-betting, against good players, it is rarely profitable to play small pocket pairs heads up as a limp-call or calling a three-bet from out of position. In fact, I have even heard some of the best no-limit players talk about three-betting or folding pocket pairs out of the blinds when a tough player opens from late position. The simple fact of the matter is usually you are going to miss and, unless you are prepared to make a move at the pot, you will lose. A lot of the time you will be forced to fold the best hand. And when you do hit your set, your opponent’s range may be so wide that he will not pay you off or he is skilled enough to get away from his hand.

March 13 — If you think your opponent has missed a draw sometimes checking the river when the highest card pairs can be a smart play from OOP

A few weeks ago, I found myself out of position to a maniac. This guy came to the casino to gamble and did not care if he called a raise with 7 3 or three-bet you preflop with J-5 offsuit. He also had the tendency to bluff rivers when he missed his draws even in spots where it was obvious that he was going to get called.

In this particular hand, he had been winning a little bit and raised from middle position to $40. I was in the big blind with 8-8, $1,000 effective, and called. The board came out K 7 6. I checked to him, and he made a $60 continuation bet. I called, thinking I could possibly have the best hand. The turn was the 8, bringing a backdoor flush draw and giving me a set. Not wanting him to check through on the turn, I decided to come out and bet $130, which he quickly called. At this point, I thought it was likely that he could have a draw because the board was so wet, and a king was in his range as well. The river brought the K and I thought for a moment about the most optimal play. Not only did I think that he would bet trip kings at the end if checked to, but I thought if I checked the king that that would give him the green light to bluff at his draw—since so many people would not check trips to him from out of position in this situation, especially if they took a check-call, lead turn line. So by not betting, I induce him to bluff the king and I also do not lose value if he has a king, since he will do the betting for me.

Even though this opponent was extremely wild, you can absolutely use this concept against more standard types of opponents. When the top card pairs in a limped pot or you have taken away the betting lead from the preflop raiser, oftentimes by checking at the end, you show a lot of weakness. The one exception to this is when you are the preflop raiser and have shown a lot of strength. In that case, checking the river when the top card pairs makes it look like you have an overpair and you are playing it cautiously, but in actuality are ready to check-call. ♠

Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on Twitter @CrushLivePoker and @BartHanson. Check out his poker training site exclusively made for live cash game play at CrushLivePoker.com where he produces weekly podcasts and live training videos.