Winning Poker Tournaments III – Hand #48

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. In Volume III, PearlJammer, Rizen, and Apestyles analyze the same hands, then I give a summary of lessons learned at the end of the hand. This article looks at hand #48.

Seat 5: 26,844,936 Hero button
Seat 6: 13,044,438 Small Blind
Seat 2: 34,292,614 Big Blind
Seat 4: 8,258,012

300,000/600,000 Blinds, 75,000 Ante

Setup: This is the same final table.
Preflop A A (1,200,000): You raise to 1,400,000. Seat 6 raises to 3,400,000.

What do you do?

PearlJammer

I have picked up the mother of all poker hands in a dream spot where Seat 6 is probably ready to play for his tournament life. It would be fine to four-bet all in since he may well be prepared to call after investing over a quarter of his stack. In fact, I would certainly move all in now, if I’ve made similar all-in four-bets against other players recently and either haven’t been called or have shown down less than a super-premium hand. My opponent would be hard-pressed to give me much credit, and he is almost certainly committed to the pot.

On the other hand, simply calling is very tempting with such a monster hand, and since I’m in position, it is my preferred play, based on my opponent’s stack size. The main risk is that he then gives up if the flop is terrible for him, whereas he may otherwise have invested his whole stack pre-flop. However, because he still has enough chips to fold pre-flop, and he will almost certainly bet about half his stack or shove on the flop, I choose to flat-call and not risk blowing him off his hand just yet.

Rizen

With no reads, I have to use position and stack sizes to determine ranges. Given that I raised on the button, I could have a huge range of hands. However, my opponent, lying third in chips, is unlikely to risk busting out of the tournament before Seat 4 without a premium hand. While it is possible that Seat 6 is three-betting light, it is much more likely that he has a premium hand and plans to call my all in preflop. That seems to argue that I should go ahead and push preflop, but that same leverage, taken to another level of thinking, might get Seat 6 to fold a premium hand such at 10-10, 9-9, or A-Q preflop to avoid busting before Seat 4. Given that I have post-flop position, I would just call preflop and try to get Seat 6 to commit himself to the pot post-flop.

Apestyles

I wish decisions were always this easy. I have aces on the button, and the small blind reraises me with a stack of slightly less than 22 big blinds. I love flat-calling reraises with aces preflop when I believe my opponent will fold to a four-bet, but will frequently make a continuation bet on the flop.

Conversely, if Seat 6 is a competent player, I don’t think he’s going to raise with 22 big blinds and then fold to an all-in bet. If Seat 6 calls frequently, then I’m losing value by not going all in. I might call, rather than four-bet, depending on how often Seat 6 has been reraising and whether or not I’ve ever seen him reraise and then fold with such a short stack. I lean towards going all in because I don’t expect he’ll fold all that often after reraising.

Matthew

PearlJammer would call, Rizen would call, and Apestyles would go all in. The truth is, it really depends on your opponent’s style of play and what you think his image is of you. Against some opponents, it is best to call, but against others, it is better to push. For example, there are some players who will always call a four-bet if they three-bet with 22 big blinds. In that case, it is obvious that four-betting all in is the best play.

Against players who you believe will fold, calling is the best play. Knowing how to play the hand comes down to how thoroughly you’ve observed your opponent’s playing tendencies.
You called. The flop came Q 10 4. Seat 6 bet 3,600,000, and you pushed all in, only to see your opponent fold (he held 9 9).

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III is available in both print and e-book format. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, “Publishing Today’s Best Poker Books.” The latest Dimat release, The Math of Hold’em, is now available in bookstores everywhere.