Learning No-Limit From Scratch ­- It’s About Ranges, Not Hands: Part II

In part one, I discussed how to estimate your opponent’s range. In this column, I’ll discuss some of the ways in which you can utilize your read of your opponent’s range to develop a clearer edge.

Hand ranges are often discussed in poker literature, but most players don’t vary their play enough based on their opponent’s ranges. Once you’ve determined his range, you need to establish the best play against that specific range. And that doesn’t mean that you should make those determinations based on the percentage chance that you currently have the best hand. These determinations need to be based on how your hand performs expected value-wise (EV-wise) against the totality of his range.

A simplistic example of this concept is calling an all-in player with Q-Q when you know his range is A-A, K-K, or A-K. He has 12 combinations of better pairs (AA-KK) and 16 combinations of A-K, so Q-Q is a 4-3 favorite to be the best hand. But, the problem with the all-in call is that A-K still has significant equity against Q-Q. And the equity Q-Q gained by being about 56 percent-44 percent against A-K for the 16 times is not enough to overcome the equity lost from being about an 80 percent-20 percent underdog the other 12 times. The pot has to lay you a price large enough to cover the equity lost on the current call against the blended range to generate positive EV.

All that said, most poker-range problems are much more complicated. And your “range read” is much more likely to be erroneous. In these situations, I assign my opponent a range of hands; I then assign the percentage chance I think that particular opponent is making a “deception play.” Sometimes that percentage is zero, sometimes it might be as high as 80 percent. Then, I ask myself, “If I was in error, was it on the loose or tight side?” Whatever the direction of my thought, I adjust slightly.

Then, I compartmentalize my opponent’s range into sections. Ones that beat me, ones I beat, draws, and air. I loosely calculate how I think my hand will play against those ranges. I take particular note of hands with little equity as well as those with great equity. For example, if you have A-A, and your opponent’s range contains sets and overpairs to the board, you have terrible equity against the sets and great equity against the pairs, but how you do overall will be a blend of the equity/EV of all your opponent’s range.

If, against my opponent’s range, I have few, if any, scenarios with great equity, and a greater number in which I have meagre equity, I know I must have a significant number of plausible scenarios in which I have positive equity to play my hand forward. By that, I mean if the equity on your significant edge situations is leaning more towards the meager equity side, you’ll generally need a lot of marginal positive equity situations to make up for the large equity lost the times you are in terrible shape.

By calculating and compartmentalizing in that manner, I can loosely estimate my EV and adjust my play to create the best equity for specific portions of his range. For instance, if air is a reasonable portion of his range, but the other portion is hands that have me in serious trouble, a small wager causing him to fold his air range might be the best play if the pot is laying you a price, even though it’s a big favorite to fail.

Furthermore, your analysis of your opponent’s range should determine your bet sizing. Which hands will he call what size bet with? How does the EV of the bet, the size and the propensity to call add up overall? What is your optimum strategy? Will keeping your bet small and inducing your opponent to call with some of his weaker hands more than make up for the equity lost from the hands he will call a big bet with? Determining such factors is a big part of what makes no-limit such a complicated game.

Getting good at designing effective and creative plays based on range-reads is a major factor in what separates the great players from the also-rans. How can you best exploit the lines your opponent takes with his range? Does he 100 percent continuation bet if he raised preflop? If he does, his range will contain a lot of “air” and a raise-bluff might be profitable. Does he always check the turn after continuation betting the flop if he missed? If so, flatting the flop may be a better play, particularly if you have something to draw to. You’ll still win when he misses the flop and turn by betting.

Make sure that you blend the equity of all the plausible scenarios when analyzing the equity of plays. Keep in mind, your hand’s value isn’t just about its equity against an opponent’s range. You also need to quantify how you can outplay your opponent into the equation or if you may get outplayed.

By constantly thinking hands through in this manner, even those hands that you’re not involved in, you’re going to get better at processing these types of equations. Over time, your brain will automatically start processing them, you’ll calculate the answers much quicker, and you’ll define your opponent’s ranges much more accurately.

The totality of all this is too complicated for current computers to solve, so it’s not going to be possible for you to indubitably solve either. But by keeping your thought process within your mental capabilities, making it as simple to process as reasonably possible while keeping it relatively accurate, you’ll come to good enough “rough justice” answers to your poker equations.

And if you can do that effectively, you’re going to be in the top echelons of the poker world. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally in Las Vegas for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke