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May 10 — You can sometimes overbet the turn to add maximum fold equity

The act of over bet bluffing, especially on earlier streets before the river, is somewhat of a lost art. We often talk about situations where it can be correct to bet the turn as a bluff only if you continue on with your bluff on the river and other situations where continuing to bluff the river after your opponent called the turn would be considered spewy. But what if we could actually add max fold equity on the turn and sometimes force our opponent to shove or fold due to stack sizes? This line can actually risk less money in the long run than making standard bet sizes on the turn and the river and can achieve the same rate of success. 

Let’s take a look at a hand I played at the Commerce Casino recently in the $5-$10 no-limit hold’em game. In this particular spot, my opponent started with $1,200 and I covered him. The villain in second position open for a raise to $35, a middle position player called, I called on the button with 6 5 and the big blind also called. The board came out K 4 3 giving me an open-ended straight draw. Everyone checked to me, and I decided to bet out $100. I thought that it was extremely unlikely that the preflop raiser would check a strong hand like top pair here due to the nature of the draw-heavy board, and the player to his left in middle position was also unlikely to hold a strong hand due to his checking. The only player whose hand strength was entirely unknown was the big blind (due to the fact that almost everyone automatically checks to the raiser), but he quickly folded to my bet, which was obviously a good thing for me. Unfortunately, the preflop raiser thought for a bit and called. The other opponent in middle position got out of the way.

In this spot, I think it is fairly easy to read my opponent’s range. A lot of players will bet a king, but will check medium-strength showdown hands like a pair of nines and higher. Because the big blind did not call my flop bet, and the other player showed no interest in the pot, many players would continue on with a hand weaker than top pair. Knowing this, I had a decision to make if I bricked out on the turn. Should I:

1. Bet again, and if called give up if the river does not improve me
2. Bet again, and if called bluff the river if the river does not improve me
3. Check and take a free card.
4. Overbet the turn forcing my opponent to either move all in or fold

Firstly, I think that choosing option three would not be a great play because there is always going to be a fair amount of fold equity against flop check-callers that are just “one and done’ing” you.

Option one has some merit because you very well might convince yourself that after your opponent calls two barrels that he is not going to fold on the river. This would likely be due to the fact that he puts us on a club draw and recognizes that so few people bet one pair for three big streets of value especially in large pots. We also may have incorrectly read his hand and he is actually pot controlling a hand like a king, which he does not intend to fold given our line.

Option two also has some merit if you think an opponent is capable of calling the turn and then folding on the river when the board does not change. If you have read my material in other Card Player articles, you know that I am actually a big fan of calling turn bets and then check-folding rivers when the board does not change because the mere fact that our opponent has bet again is change enough. I call this the concept of playing “fifth street chicken” on my live training site CrushLivePoker.com.

But this article is about option four. With the pot being $340 and our opponent having a little over $1,000 left, what if we were to bet $500 on a non-king turn? This would basically force our opponent into an all-in or fold situation given the pot size and his stack. Also, if you compare this bluffing spot to standard bet sizing in option two, you can see that $500 here actually risks less than betting $200 on the turn, followed by $500 on the river—or if we get frisky and all in on the river. This type of situation becomes somewhat more complex when you have a draw that has enough equity to call an all-in, however. 

But there can be other scenarios where both players are deep enough your opponent does not really have the option of an all in. In these types of spots, you do not have to worry about getting raised off of your draw as much and the same concept of maximum pressure due to over betting still applies. 

May 8 — Most recreational players don’t bet trips strongly on a non-draw heavy paired board. 

If you are looking to pick up some extra money at the poker table, pay attention to non-draw heavy, paired boards—especially in limped pots. The simple fact of the matter is that most recreational players will not bet their trips hard when they feel like they have nothing to protect against. This creates a very profitable situation if you notice when someone bets trips on a paired board that does not contain draws. In this case, there is a high probability that they do not have a strong hand and you can easily take the pot away from them on a later street. 

Let us take a look at a hand that I observed one of my students play in a $5-$5 $500 capped game at the Commerce Casino. Two people, including the under the gun player limped in, and my student overlimped with J 10 on the button. Both blinds checked their option, and they saw a flop of 7 7 2. The blinds checked again, the under the gun player checked, and the middle position overlimper bet out $20 into the $25 pot. My student called, and everyone behind him folded. The turn brought the Q, and the upfront villain checked. My student bet $45, and quickly got a fold. 

This may seem like a trivial hand, but my student was doing exactly what it takes to be a very good player in no limit—he was playing off the range of his opponent, not his own cards. He knew that most villains in this spot would check a seven on a disconnected board like this in order to “trap.” He told me afterwards that he considered raising the flop, but felt that because the trips were the top cards that he did not need to worry about someone overcalling with a deuce. This was pretty sound thinking on his part.

You see, if the board was something like 9-2-2 rainbow, we could sometimes be concerned with a player overcalling with a nine to a single bet or the betting villain not check-folding top pair on the turn. In that case, you could make the case for raising because it makes it very difficult for top pair in the blinds to call two streets cold or for the bettor to continue to a lot of heat. But on this type of board, we can risk the same on our bluff through floating as opposed to bluff raising. 

Be hyperaware, however, of players leading out for large amounts on these types of boards from early position. A lot of times that indicates a big pocket pair that was trying to go for a limp reraise preflop like aces or kings—and good luck trying to bluff them off of those hands even on a paired board. ♠

Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on Twitter @CrushLivePoker and @BartHanson. Check out his poker training site exclusively made for live cash game play at CrushLivePoker.com where he produces weekly podcasts and live training videos.