Learning No-Limit From Scratch ­- Maximizing your River Value in Position

Too many players, emotionally satisfied just to win the pot, miss valuable opportunities to value bet the river. And since river bets are generally the largest bets in no-limit, that missed EV is considerable.

On the button in a $2-$5 no-limit hold’em cash game, $670 deep and holding A 10, a weak tourist, $530 deep, open limped in front of me. He’d previously open limped with what he considered any playable hand not worth a raise, any ace, any weak Broadway holdings, any pair, as well as most suited one-gappers or better. In several past hands, I’d noticed that he’d folded his limps when someone raised to $25+, but called when it was $15 to him or less.

Thinking I had a much superior hand with position, plus the fact that Mr. Weak-Tourist was an easy read and would play his hand poorly, made playing my holding more valuable than raising and taking it down preflop. Against this particular opponent, with his wide hand range and poor strategic abilities, I could obtain many equity-rich bets post-flop. I made it $20, fully expecting a call. Both blinds folded, Mr. Weak-Tourist didn’t disappoint me and called. There was about $45 in the pot.

I loved it when the dealer flopped A Q 3. That flop hit all my opponent’s weak aces range and, since I felt he would have raised with A-A, A-Q or Q-Q, limited the number of my opponent’s holdings that beat mine. Mr. Weak-Tourist paused for a moment and checked. Looking to build the pot, I fired $30, reasoning that he would call with any ace. He called without much consideration, about $105 in the pot. I thought he had made the decision to call prior to my betting action.

The turn card was also favorable, the 8, I picked up a club draw. Mr. Weak-Tourist checked to me again, and I fired $55 into the pot. Once again, he called, about $215 in the pot.

The river came the K, making a scary looking board with the A, K, and Q out there. Mr. Weak-Tourist checked. Since he bet his hands when he improved and he checked to me on the river, I didn’t think he had a flush in his range. Additionally, since it was a king that came and he would have raised preflop with A-K, the king didn’t improve him to two-pair and he was checking because the flush came. In short, I was still very sure I had the best hand.

Now I had to determine how to obtain the best value out of my hand. I read him for an ace, weak kicker, a hand I wanted a call from. I asked myself, “what size would he call a bet with aces, no kicker on a highly scary board like that?” My best guess estimate was $75 and slid it into the pot. Mr. Weak-Tourist thought for a while and reluctantly called. I turned my hand over, and he showed me the A, said “good hand” and tossed his holding into the muck.

I felt good about the way I’d played my hand, feeling that making that $75 dollar bet on the river had maximized the value for my hand. I’d read the hand correctly, not just because the river value-bet worked, but because of his reluctance with the river call made me think he might have folded to a bigger sizing. Plus, I was pleased with the fact that I made the bet. If I hadn’t been observant of the fact he hadn’t ever check-raised, but always bet when he made his hands, then a river value bet might not have been the correct play. Additionally important was that I had never seen him check-raise bluff.

When considering an in-position river value bet, in order for it to be profitable you need to be a favorite to win when you are called. Betting when you’re only a favorite to have the best hand isn’t correct because the bets value only measures against his calling range. Take note of the difference. You also need to also be aware of, and adjust to, the fact that, assuming you are folding to a check-raise, you are susceptible to a river check-raise bluff that would cause you to fold any equity you might have realized in a showdown. What level of risk you assume depends on the propensity of your opponent to check-raise bluff. The greater the chance you’ll be check-raised bluffed, the more you should extend the percentage chance of having the best hand against his calling range.

In this particular case, since I didn’t think Mr. Weak-Tourist would actualize a check-raise bluff, value betting any hand that was better than 50 percent of his calling range was correct, but against a different textured opponent that would check-raise bluff often, I would require my hand to be stronger than a much greater percentage of his calling range to compensate for the times I would be bluffed out of the pot.

Out of position is a different equation. Sometimes you will want to “set the price” with a marginal hand that you want to get to showdown with, and betting with a hand that is an underdog if called can be correct if you feel you would be check-calling a bet or likely to get bluffed off your hand. This is the subject for another column; I just wanted to make sure that my readers understood that a difference exists.

So, don’t just be happy with winning the pot on the river with position and turn your hand over. Maximize the value of your holding. Bet when you can get the best of it!
You’ll be amazed how much value it will add to your game! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke