Combining The New And The Old In No-Limit

I will begin with a brief summary of the old and new ways deciding how to play a hand. Then I will examine a very common type of situation in some detail, and try to suggest a middle path, which combines the old and the new.

Old: When I first started playing no-limit hold’em seriously, it was common practice to try to put someone on a specific hand. In some cases, it was possible to base your line of play on the hand you attributed to your opponent. Even if you decided they had a range of hands, it was very narrow. If you raised and got reraised, you assumed you were up against Aces, Kings, or perhaps A-K suited. When you were unable to put them on a specific hand, the default was to use clues from bet sizes, behaviors, and tells to determine if the hand was weak, medium, strong, a draw, or a bluff.

New: The modern procedure is to put someone on a range. When a tight player raises under the gun, he has a hand in the top 15 percent. Then you examine the flop, and see how it intersects with his range. If his range rates to connect with the flop and he takes aggressive action, assume he has a good hand. Attempt to substitute math for table feel or card reading, and act accordingly.

Situation: In a medium-stakes cash game, a tight aggressive player raises to three big blinds from under the gun. Everyone folds to you on the button. You call with 8 7, and the blinds fold. (Stack size: 75 big blinds) The flop is K 7 2. He now bets five big blinds into a 7.5 big blind pot. What is your chance of winning, and what should you do? You are getting 2.5 to 1 (12.5 big blinds to 5.) If there was no more betting, you would want to call whenever your hand will win 30 percent of the time or more.

How often will you win: Old style (you think he has A-K or A-Q) shows you will win about 53 percent of the time. Let’s assume he might occasionally have some other strong hand and round this down to 50 percent. New style (you think he has a range of the top 15 percent) shows you will win 47 percent of the time against this range. Let’s round this up to 50 percent since he might also have decided to bluff a weaker hand. Note that both the old and new styles lead you to believe you will win about half the time.

What should you do? If there was no more betting, it would be an easy call. Unfortunately, there may be more betting, which means you have negative implied odds. He will keep firing with his best hands and with a few bluffs. You rate to lose some chips as the hand plays out. Let’s say, on average, you will lose another 10 to 15 blinds. New style suggests you go with the math and fold. You are giving up a lot of equity here, but saving all the equity you rate to lose later in the hand. Old style suggests you read your opponent. Your goal is to call whenever he has A-Q, and missed, but to fold whenever he has A-K and hit the flop.

Recommendation: I think the new style has worked well getting you to this decision point. Using the top 15 percent range is more sensible than putting your opponent on a few specific hands without much evidence of what he really has. In this case, both methods suggest you will win about half the time. New style suggests folding. Old style suggests calling. I suggest merging the two. If you have absolutely no idea what your opponent has, then follow the new style and fold. I think that some combination of table feel, his betting pattern, and subconsciously picking up a tell should allow you to make the correct decision a lot more than half the time. If you manage to get it right 60 percent of the time, you will be calling his continuation bet with the best hand 60 percent of the time. You will be calling with the worst hand only 40 percent. Now you have not only current pot equity, but also positive implied odds. You will make even more money as the hand continues! The great players like Phil Ivey and Doyle Brunson have great table feel and probably get this type of decision right closer to 80 percent of the time vs. average players. (Phil Hellmuth refers to his correct play as “white magic.”)

Take-away: When in doubt, the new style (thinking in terms of ranges and using math) is more effective than the old. At the same time, try to incorporate the old style use of table feel, subconscious reads, betting patterns and finding tells into your game. In the big bet (no-limit and pot-limit) games, making the correct decision on one hand a night 70 percent of the time instead of 50 percent can be the difference between being a small winner and a big winner. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.