Simple vs. Complicated Strategies

The World Series of Poker is underway. During its first week, many players have complained about the dealers. After a dealer error or some confusion, it is common to hear a dealer say, “This is my first, (or second or third) day dealing poker.” I respectfully suggest that the WSOP offer a cheap dealer training course for a week before the series starts. If 1,000 potential dealers signed up at $100 each, the WSOP would make about $100,000 and have a pool of reasonably trained dealers for the series. I hope Jack Effel reads Card Player.

Now to the real topic of this article. In many situations, you have a choice of following a simple strategy or a complicated one. In general, simpler strategies are easier to learn and to use. They are also harder to exploit. Complicated strategies can be more effective, but they are harder to create and to implement. Here is a common tournament situation: the bubble is far way, you are the button at an eight-handed table, antes are 100, blinds 400-800. Unfortunately, your stack has dwindled to 12,000 (15 big blinds or an M of 6.) You have four strategic choices: 1) Fold, 2) Call, 3) Normal raise of 2.5 to 3.5 big blinds, or 4) Shove all-in.

One simple strategy is to fold or shove. Even this simple strategy, takes a lot of work. What hands should you shove? Here is one strategy that easy to memorize. Shove all pairs, shove the following suited hands or better A-2, K-2, Q-7, J-7, 10-7, 9-7, 8-7, and shove unsuited A-2, K-9, Q-9, J-9, and 10-9. Remember it is pairs, suited K-2+ and X-7 (where X is bigger than 7) and offsuit A-2 and Y-9 (where Y is bigger than 9.) How many hands is this? 13 pairs times 6 = 78 plus 38 suited hands times 4 = 152 plus 22 unsuited hands times 12 = 264. This is a total of 494 hands or about 37 percent of the time. It is certainly a reasonable strategy for this situation. If you know anything about the blinds, you can modify it slightly. For example, if they fold too often, shove with a few more hands. Is this the optimum strategy, probably not.

Now let’s begin to approach a really complicated strategy using all four of the options listed above. Just trying to construct this strategy gives me a headache. You need to divide your playable hands into three groups: limps, normal raises, and shoves. You need to construct unexploitable ranges for each action. How should you play your best hands A-A, K-K, Q-Q and A-K? If you put them all into one group, then the other two groups become too weak. You could limp A-A, normal raise with K-K and Q-Q, and shove with A-K. Or you could glance at your watch and if second hand between 0 and 20, limp; if it is between 21-40 make a normal raise, and between 41-60 shove. There are any number of variations of frequencies you could follow. You also have to consider follow up strategies if you limped or made a normal raise. What if you limp and he raises? What if your opponent shoves? Your limps and raises must include enough hands that you will call a shove. If not, they can shove with any two cards.

What does this mean? You raise to 2,400, and the big blind three-bet shoves. He is risking 11,200 to win a pot that is 4,400. Suppose you call with only your best 25 percent of hands. Even if you win every time you call, he still shows a profit shoving with any two cards. The math is simple. Three-fourths of the time he wins 4,400. That is worth 3,300 (¾ times 4,400.) One-quarter of the time he loses 11,200, which is worth 2,800 (1/4 times 11,200.) He has at least 500 in profit shoving with any two cards. Your minimum defensive frequency should be over 30 percent to prevent this. I’d suggest calling the shove with around 40 percent of your initial raises. Which circles back to our initial problem of deciding which hands you put into your normal raise basket. You have to feel comfortable calling a shove with about 40 percent of these hands.

If all this wasn’t complicated enough, slight changes could call for totally different strategies. What if your stack was 15,000, not 12,000? What if you were the cutoff, not the button? What if the ante was still 100, but the blinds were 300-600? What if the big blind plays very well? What if you are seven players away from the money? You get the idea of how complicated, a complicated strategy can get. My advice is to find a strategy that you can memorize and implement. For most of us, that means simple. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.