Real Poker: It’s All About The Expectation!

All wagers are not created equal. Some have positive expected value (EV), some negative. Some, are effectively neutral, like betting even money on a coin flip. But transcending that, in poker, the EV of the positive and negative wagers vary, causing your bets to possess differing values. An opponent calling a bet drawing dead has dramatically different value from a bet that an opponent is correct in calling. And that’s a very important concept to understand in selecting your strategy choices.

EV (expected value) is the mathematical amount you will win with a wager against a given hand or range. Unless the EV number is 100 percent or zero, it’s a different number than the wagered amount. If you bet $100 with 80 percent chance of winning, with no past or future wagers, your EV is $60. Over 100 trials you’ll win $100 80 times ($8,000) and lose $100 20 times ($2,000) for a net win of $6,000, or $60 per trial (your EV). In most poker situations EV cannot be exactly calculated and can only be estimated. That said, you shouldn’t dismiss it and your best EV estimation should be included in all your judgements.

All gaming equations should be quantified expectationly. The sum of all your EV will equal your earn over time. The vast majority of players think in nominal terms. If they make a play that obtains them a bet, they pat themselves on the back for earning the dollar value of that bet. But they really didn’t earn the nominal value of the bet; they earned the EV of that bet. In select circumstances, the nominal earn of that bet might be –EV. Do you understand why? If you don’t, you need to work on your conceptual understanding of poker.

Most players and many poker books state you should determine your strategy based only on the immediate situation, with little to no consideration of how the hand will play out. If they have two opponents pre-flop and they have 40 percent equity, they raise based solely on that information. But what they often overlook is how that raise will affect the play and EV of future streets. Will it prevent an opponent from leading into you post-flop, a wager you can raise with high EV? If so, you may have made a small EV gain but cost yourself a large EV gain on a future street. Not an optimum strategy.
The plausible scenarios in most situations are many, and once again, too complex to quantify exactly. But the concept that is important to remember is: don’t take a small EV edge early if it is likely to thwart a large edge play later in the hand.

However, you must estimate what you might gain against what you might lose. Factors to consider in determining when to sacrifice a current edge in the hope of obtaining a larger edge at a later time include pot size, risk assessments, size of bet, edge of bets, and probability of any future event happening (e.g. a scare card that thwarts your plans). A simplistic example of this is to flat an opponent on the flop that you read for a 10-10+ or A-K range with a set on a non-threatening board with the intent to obtain an increased edge on future streets.

While many other issues apply to the situation, the point is to maximize the EV of your hand, not to “protect” your hand, not to have the highest win percentage for your hand or to lose the least the times that you’re beat. Continuously getting your money in with optimal +EV will increase your long-term profits.

Accurately assessing the best EV strategy is often complex and an issue for a later day. But it’s important to understand the concept so that your thinking and play selection strategies can grow from that fundamental concept. After every hand go back over your thinking and analyze whether you could have obtained higher EV.

Could you have delayed your bet and created higher value for yourself? Could you have raised an opponent out and removed his equity from the hand? Could you have slowplayed and trapped a low-equity holding into making big –EV calls? Could you have isolated an opponent with the propensity to get money in poorly? Etc.

Do not base your post-hand analysis on the results of the hand, or the cards that happened to come. Instead, base it on the information you held at the point of decision.

And once you develop the skill-sets to maximize your edge, you’ll be amazed how much higher your edge over your opponents will become. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters -including purchase, sale or mortgage, his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com.