Seven Card Stud Eight-or-Better: Big Pair Versus Low Card Part 2

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In this issue on Seven Card Stud Eight-or-Better (Stud8), we are going to continue our discussion on a confrontation between a big pair against a low card on fifth street and beyond. For part one of this series, check out Vol. 35 Issue 7 of the magazine.

While aces are obviously a big pair, we are going to assume the player has a probable pair of kings, because with an ace up there is a different dynamic in play as an opponent will not know (at least initially) whether they are going high or low.

In this example we are playing in a high-ante, six-handed game where a king completes from early position, a low card calls, and everyone else folds. We are going to further assume that the first player has at least one other king in the hole, however, all of the equities displayed below will also leave open the slim possibility that he is rolled up.

As previously discussed, when the low card catches a good connecting card on fourth street, the king should check, and the low should bet the vast majority if not the entirety of their range. However, if on fifth street the low card catches badly, the pendulum of power shifts back to the king as they are now a clear favorite over the low card’s range:

As we can see, the pair of kings should bet into this board and with the exception of a busted three flush the low hand should continue with all of the above holdings.

With the (7-2) 5-6-J there is usually just enough dead money in the pot for a bare low draw with zero high equity to chase, and this particular holding has some backdoor straight potential.

A pair of sixes with the three to a low and a straight is marginal, but is probably good enough to call on fifth and see what happens on the next street. (Contrary to popular stud advice, we don’t have to make our final decision on whether or not to go the entire way on fifth street. In close spots we can call, but then get out on sixth when things don’t go our way.)

It should be noted that none of these draws are big enough where the low hand should feel the need to raise. Only the open-ended straight draw has equity above 50% and when you only have a 51% advantage you will slightly value own yourself when raising as it allows your opponent to three-bet when he is very strong.

There is some older stud 8 literature that advocates raising a straight and low draw (even when we just hold a gutshot) since we have so many outs to split or scoop. However, as we can see above that would be a small mistake as that does not translate into a high enough pot equity.

With an unimproved big pair, it’s a difficult situation to navigate when the low hand picks up a third low card on fifth street as he often has either a made low, two pair, or a four low with a pair. Still it would be a mistake to automatically fold in this spot and there is certainly a huge difference when your opponent is showing 5 6 7 versus something like 2 5 8. Since the pair of kings will often feel obligated to call all future bets, they generally need to feel they have approximately 30-35% equity to continue on profitably.

When showing three low cards on fifth street, the low hand should virtually always bet as the high hand may fold, and a four low with a pair is often a small favorite over an unimproved high pair. Even against kings up, a four low with a pair has around 40% equity with two cards to go. And most often the low hand will have the option to take a free card on sixth street.

If we hold a pair of kings and decided to continue on fifth street in the face of three low cards, we should tend to lead on sixth when improving to either two pair or trips and our opponent hits a high card. While we may sometimes get raised by a straight or a made low with a straight freeroll, we pulled ahead of two small pair and have outs to a full house.

While there is some risk in betting, checking allows our opponent to check back his pair plus low draw holdings, against which we are a large favorite. However, in this sixth street situation we should usually check an unimproved pair of kings, unless our opponent has a weak board resembling something like (X-X) 5 2 8 J where he can’t have a straight and two small pair is more unlikely.

With a low hand, we should usually check behind on sixth street with a pair and four to a low against a probable high pair, and this would especially be the case with a holding such as (7 2) 5 6 2 J. Since our opponent called on fifth he’s certainly not going to fold when we hit the jack, and we only have 41% equity against a single pair of kings.

On seventh street if the action is checked to us and we make two small pair, we can make a thin value bet. Our opponent is forced to pay off with an unimproved pair of kings which is his most likely hand once he declined to bet on sixth street. When villain was unimproved heading into the final street, our two pair is best around 60-65% of the time when all of the cards are out, therefore we will make money in the long run betting.

In tight aggressive stud 8 games, confrontations between a big pair and a single low oriented holding are commonplace. It’s important to recognize when you should continue, when you should fold, when you should search for slim value, and when to deny your opponent a free card when he’s likely to take one. ♠

Kevin Haney is a former actuary of MetLife but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. He is co-owner of Elite Fitness Club in Oceanport, NJ and is a certified personal trainer. With regards to poker he got his start way back in 2003 and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. If interested in learning more, playing mixed games online, or just saying hello he can be reached at [email protected].