Final Table Takedown: Michael Estes Earns Second WSOP Circuit Ring

Michael Estes started playing variations of seven card stud by himself when he was just eight years old. Tired of watching his parents battle in their semi-weekly nickel game and upset they wouldn’t let him sit in, Michael took a patient approach and studied the game, until deciding three decades later to become a professional poker player.

Estes currently lives in Chicago with this girlfriend Katie and his two feline companions ‘Whitecat’ and ‘Dolly Purrton.’ This despite his trusty, everlasting St. Louis Cardinals hat which was once referred to as “a false sign of homelessness.”

Although falling apart, the lucky hat has seen some deep runs in the last 12 months, starting with his first WSOP Circuit ring and a $48,464 payout in Chicago last November. He then followed that up with the biggest cash of his career, banking $293,032 in the $3,000 no-limit event at the WPT World Championship at Wynn in December.

After final tables this year at the Canterbury Park Winter Poker Fest, the Running Aces Minnesota Showdown Series, and the Mid-States Poker Tour East Chicago stop, Estes added his second gold ring by taking down the WSOP Circuit main event at Horseshoe Hammond in October. The score added another $198,576 to his career totals, giving him $1.1 million in cashes since the summer of 2022.

Card Player caught up with Estes to talk about his latest win and break down some key hands he played en route to victory.

Craig Tapscott: You’ve really been putting up some numbers the last couple of years on the circuit. What has been the biggest improvement in your game?

Michael Estes: I’m no longer waiting for spots to come to me, I create them. Unlike a couple years ago when I first started playing poker again, I’m able to go for it in situations that were previously too complex or simply not worth it. And I no longer fear looking stupid even against tough competition. Since I’ve taken on this mindset, my results have soared.

Event: WSOP Circuit Chicago
Buy-In: $1,700
Entrants: 746
Prize Pool: $1,130,190
First Place: $198,576

Stacks: Mike Estes – 7,000,000 (88 bb) Villain – 2,300,000 (29 bb)
Blinds: 40,000-80,000 (80,000)
Players Remaining: 8

Action folded to Villian in the small blind who raised to 200,000. Estes called from the big blind holding J 5.

CT: That’s not a very pretty hand. What was your plan?

ME: Well, the good news is I’m the chip leader in a pretty big tournament. I don’t mind playing trash in position, especially when the price is right. It’s nearly a min-click to call so I put it in there without much thought.

I also want to give this guy a sweat and put it in his head that I’m happy to battle in future blind versus blind situations.

Flop: K Q 7
Villian checked.

CT: It would seem that the Villain would fire a continuation bet on this board. Could he have been trapping with a monster?

ME: Yes. Villain’s check is surprising as this flop should favor him more than me. The check is either a trap or weakness. Trap hands are purely K-K, Q-Q, 7-7, with A-A and K-Q also begging me to fire. Weak hands are A-X and medium hands that have become bluff catchers are pocket pairs eights through jacks.

CT: Put yourself in the Villain’s shoes.

ME: Personally, I would c-bet all my monsters, pairs, and good draws to either take down the pot now or build something for later against a very wide big blind range. The fact he’s checking leans towards weakness, but with his small preflop raise, I can’t throw out that he might be inexperienced and wants to check-jam all in to negate any post-flop play.

Estes bet 220,000.

ME: I fire out 220,000 and see what shakes. I think it’s a little more than GTO would like, but I need to know if he has the goods or not. If so, he should be check-raising or jamming a lot of hands for max protection, and if he doesn’t and just calls, I’ll know he’s capped at one pair hands that are unlikely to hold a king. He’ll also fold here a ton which is great not only for this hand, but with some meta-game points moving forward.

Villain called.

CT: Did you pick up anything from the call?

ME: In live poker versus non-pros and crushers, quick calls usually mean your opponent does not have a great hand, otherwise he would’ve thought a bit about his options. I confidently removed all sets and two pairs from his range. I also removed A-A, though I leave a small possibility of A-K due to ICM.

My read is Q-X, medium pairs, and possibly something like A-J. These hands that go unimproved on the turn, will have to fold to aggression on future streets.

Turn: K
Villian checked again.

ME: A great card for me as I don’t put the Villain on trips, but I certainly can have them with my preflop call and flop bet. My only decision is whether I should go for it.

CT: Break it down for us.

ME: The pot is 920,000 and my stack and position allow me to apply maximum pressure. I think of a size that I would bet with K-9, while also setting up a river jam on “clean” rivers. I come up with…

Estes bet 460,000.

ME: Villain thinks a bit. He’s counting and recounting his chips and cherry-picking out a calling stack. He keeps looking back at the clock and then at me for tells. If he calls, the pot will be less than 1 SPR (stack-to-pot-ratio) and he will be left with under 20 big blinds.

Villain called.
River: 8

ME: This is a complete brick for him and nearly a brick for me unless I have K-8 or a sick 8-8. Villain tanked and while he’s tanking I already know what I’m doing if he checks or bets small.

Villain checked.

ME: I go through the entire hand one more time to ensure my actions are consistent with trips and I concluded it’s a resounding – Yes! I tanked a bit more to collect my composure and tossed in a single chip to say “all in.”

Estes moved all-in.

ME: The Villain took another three to four minutes, counting his stack, looking at the clock and examining the stacks around him. He knows I could have squadoosh with all the draws missing, but I know he can’t call for his life here in this spot.

Villain folded. Estes won the pot of 1,840,000.

ME: Tournament poker is fun. I show the bluff to hopefully put some fear into the rest of the table and make it known I’m playing to win.

Stacks: Michael Estes – 13,500,000 (90 bb) Villain – 8,200,000 (54 bb)
Blinds: 75,000-150,000 (150,000)
Players Remaining: 4

CT: Do you have any better reads on the four remaining players at this juncture?

ME: I know this Villain a bit from cash games in Chicago. He’s a tricky player who doesn’t mind playing big pots. Though I had never seen him in a tournament environment before today, he was second in chips and was pretty active and playing well.

Estes raised from UTG to 300,000 holding A 8. Villain raised from the small blind to 960,000 and the big blind folded.

ME: There were two short stacks at the table looking to ladder into third. It’s an odd situation going up against me, the only guy who can take him out, therefore I ranged the Villain with mostly premiums.

I went through all my options. I could four-bet light and retake initiative, fold and keep the chip lead and continue to wait out the short stacks, or call and play a three-bet pot in position. I ultimately decided correctly or incorrectly to…

Estes called.
Flop: A 2 2
Villain bet 650,000.

CT: You flopped top pair but could still be in a load of trouble.

ME: There’s a lot to unpack here though I immediately know my action. I’ve flopped top pair (yay!) but with a trash kicker (sigh). I had a backdoor flush draw (yay!) but there’s also a front door flush draw on the board (sigher).

Against Villain’s range, A-X will be good a lot of the time, but the times it’s not, it’s losing piles. Taking a step back, we were now four-handed and I believed I had the skill advantage with a small chip lead. The two short stacks are folding nearly every hand hoping the other goes out first to net an additional $28,000.

CT: Did you calculate the ICM?

ME: I only started playing tournament poker farily recently and don’t understand ICM on an advanced level. I ultimately decided to block everything out and play the hand in a silo as if I was in a cash game. I have plenty of chips and even a small beat won’t hurt me too much if at all.

CT: Walk us through your decision process A-Z?

ME: First, who had the nut advantage? He did but there’s only one combo of A-A. Would he bet here with the implied nuts? It’s not impossible but unlikely as he should be checking this hand a lot.

Second, since I have A 8 and the ace and two of hearts were on the board, that leaves two combos of A-2 suited for a flopped boat. Would he three-bet A-2 suited though in this situation? It’s four-handed, so maybe. Don’t I have A-2 suited though? If I’m calling A 8 I’m surely calling all ace-suited wheels.

Now the next level after the nut advantage. He should have the better aces. This is the most likely of winning hands but again it’s unlikely given I hold an ace. With respect to sizing, it appeared he was range betting.

Personally, I would check everything because I know my opponent would either have an ace or nothing. But he could be trying to get a pocket pair to call or semi-bluffing with Q-Q. If he has something like tens, this is a great bet that deduces whether I have an ace or not and can take the pot down now easily.

I was never folding here and there’s no reason to raise as I’m way ahead or way behind.

Estes called.
Turn: 7
Villain bet 1,200,000.

ME: Now I faced a more binary/polar situation of whether he could have a flush, or another hand that wants to continue adding to a pot that is now ballooned over 4 million.

I didn’t know if he is capable of three-betting all suited Broadways but K Q, K J and K 10 “could” take this line. So yes, they exist and would certainly continue betting on this board.

CT: You’re very good at breaking down your options in each spot. Many players struggle with that on a deeper level. Let’s do it again.

ME: My hand seems too good to fold, but too weak to continue. I was clearly a bit confused. I went through my three options again. If I fold, am I playing scared and essentially opening myself up for exploitation? Or is it wise because I can get it back versus short stacks and wait for a better spot.

CT: And if you raised?

ME: A min click raise would allow me to see where I’m at. If he calls the raise and checked river, we’ll realize equity. If he reraises or jams, I’ll have an easy fold. If he calls and leads out on a river, then what? Call and lose the maximum?

CT: And if you call?

ME: I thought a call would turn my hand face up, essentially saying, “Yes, I have an ace, and it’s not a good one.” In the same realm of raising, what am I going to do facing a river bet outside of a black eight or another deuce?

Finally, I thought about what hands would take this line that I was beating right now. There’s K Kx, Q Qx, K Qx and possibly some ace-wheel hands, though I put those in a bucket more likely to check-call than double barrel. And perhaps even J-J with a heart would likely showdown here.

I thought about all of these things, but in real-time, it’s very hard to keep all your thoughts coherent and in cohesion with the others. This is something I have to work on. So I…

Estes called.
River: K
Villain bet 2,500,000.

ME: I then realized something I should have thought about on the turn. Do I have any flushes in my range? I only thought about my actual hand which in hindsight was a mistake. The answer is yes, but probably not many.

CT: Okay. One last time, take us through it.

ME: He knew I didn’t have a boat, knew I didn’t have A-K, and was pretty sure I didn’t have a flush. I was as vulnerable as can be and that gave him the green light to press the pedal to the metal.

I was beating J-J/Q-Q and I guess K Qx. Betting those hands just felt more suicidal after I called the turn. If he had A-K or better, a value bet like 2,500,000 seemed right. To negate a chop with say A-J, I would suspect him to go even higher though. I wasn’t too sure.

CT: And any other possible hands?

ME: The K-K with a heart just snuck in for a boat. And A-A the whole way, though fishy and improbable as it sounds, felt logical. I didn’t know how Villain would play flushes. But he would definitely bet something on all three streets. Having already put in over 2,500,000 myself, I played my worst hand of the tournament…

Estes folded. Villain won the pot of 5,845,000.

CT: Did he show?

ME: He did not, and I have not found out since. This was a very tough spot, but one I could have navigated better instead of reverting to cash game play. Tournament poker is hard and I have a lot more to learn. ♠

*Photo by WSOP/Poker.org