Early-Season Football - a Time to Learn

As is the case with virtually all handicappers, the start of a new football season is one of my favorite times of the season, not necessarily because I have a football "Jones," but because it seems to be my nature to analyze things. And the challenge of analyzing the future prospects of football teams from early-season games is one of the reasons I'm in my current profession.

Here are some of the rules of thumb I am mindful of as the early-season results come rolling in:

1. Don't go overboard on your early-season wagers. No matter how expert you are on football, and no matter how well you've done your preseason preparation, you should admit to yourself that you're still learning about the 2003 edition of each team. You're learning more about the impact of newcomers, of a new coach, or of a new offensive or defensive system. Coaches are still learning about their players, especially in college where there are no preseason games, as there are in the NFL. In fact, coaches say they learn more about their teams in the first two weeks of the season than at any other time. If they're still learning about their teams, maybe sports bettors should also tread a little lightly until the teams solidify somewhat as they incorporate their new players and digest any offensive or defensive changes. It's risky for bettors to be all over the Las Vegas board in the early going. It's OK to anticipate a little, but preserve the major portion of your bankroll until each team's 2003 form is better established.

2. Don't be locked into preconceived notions of a team. You could end up chasing your money. If a team performs much differently in the early season than you expected, be very careful. Don't automatically expect it to revert immediately to the form that existed in your mind. Often, there's a "Bob Dylan factor" involved – there's something happening, but you don't know what it is. Later on in the season, you might find out the reasons. It's usually a good rule of thumb that if a team isn't performing as you expected it to, stay away from it for a while as a wagering vehicle. On the positive side, be open-minded enough to accept the fact that a team you had slotted in a lower echelon could be much better than you expected.

3. Don't overrate any single early performance of a team, especially at home against an outclassed opponent. You probably won't have a very accurate picture of a team until it plays a game or two on the road. It's always best to be a bit skeptical concerning any team's prospects until it plays at least one game before a hostile crowd, and at least one game against a very tough opponent. Generally speaking, the quality of a team is revealed more by who it beats and where, not by how badly it beats an inferior opponent.

4. Look for balanced quality. By and by, the poorly balanced teams lose to the quality teams that are better balanced. To use a basketball analogy, John Wooden used to say that a prime factor in success is "balance, balance, balance, balance, balance." In fact, he couldn't say it often enough. Balanced scoring. Balance between offense and defense. Balance between ability and court sense. Balance between athletics and academics. And on and on. In early-season football, learn to love the teams that can run, throw, defend, and kick well. Note and be wary of those that appear extremely unbalanced. Eventually, the latter will find themselves in very vulnerable pointspread situations. That's when to strike.

5. Look for overrated teams. It happens every year, big-name teams that have a few problems and don't come close to playing up to expectations. Nebraska of last year is an example. It was not the same powerhouse as in recent campaigns. Or, St. Louis last year in the NFL, with its offensive line injuries and turnovers. Remember, pointspreads are usually "sticky" for the "name" teams. The spreads often stay lofty, even while performance on the field is obviously deteriorating.

6. Note and remember the "go-against" teams. There's a simplistic sports-betting axiom that states: If you just bet on the top 10 teams of the season and against the bottom 10 teams of the season, you'll end up with a winning record for the year. Usually, the results of following through on that axiom are either quite positive or close to it. However, there's much more of a tendency for the public to bet on the "hot" teams – even as the oddsmakers increase the "price" – than there is to bet against the terrible teams. Many bottom-of-the barrel college teams end the season with pointspread records of 3-9 or 4-8. The sports-betting public usually loves to bet on the go-with teams; Americans love winners. However, there's often just as much money to be made going against the worst of the worst, especially when they face a motivated foe eager for a good win. Sure, occasionally you'll lose. But just about any handicapper would be happy to win three-fourths or two-thirds of his wagers.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for The Gold Sheet's new 2003 College and Pro Football Annual on newsstands now. To buy your copy of this valuable reference manual, or for an introductory subscription, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.