Why Do You Win?

The following is a selective re-creation of a conversation I've heard in cardrooms many times. It's both amusing and instructive, and goes something like this:

Player (exasperated): "This game's unbelievable; there's a zillion chips in every pot and nobody can play a lick! So how come I can't beat it!!??

Friend:

"How do you expect to beat it?"

Player (incredulous): "Are you kidding? These guys are terrible, they're in every pot to the river – and I play good!"

Friend: "Really? How do you play good in a game with no 'play' in it?"

Player (irritated): "What are you getting at?"

Friend: "Doesn't 'playing good' involve formulating and executing some kind of strategy? What's your strategy for this game?"

Player: "OK, that's a valid point, which reminds me – what's a legitimate starting hand in this game, because I sure as heck can't figure it out! I know that in big fields, suited connectors are supposed to go up in value, but this game's ridiculous – every hand's capped before the flop and the only cards in the muck are mine. I mean, is K-J suited a four-bet hand? Is pocket eights? I just don't know."

Friend: "Tell me something, how's your bankroll? Are you flush? Can you stand big swings?"

Player: "Actually, I'm kinda short-rolled."

Friend: "So, let me get this straight. You're playing with a short roll in a big-swing game in which you haven't figured out what hands to play – and you see yourself as a favorite?"

Player: "But it's a good game – and I'm a good player!"

Poker is one of those things at which most people assume they're above average, just as most people think they're good drivers, have excellent taste, and are great in the sack. But unlike driving, aesthetics, and sexual prowess, poker is strictly a competitive affair in which the idea of playing "good" has far less meaning than the idea of playing "better than." The 10th-best player in the world is more than just good, but if he spends all of his time playing the top nine, he's just another joe calling for more chips. A player with a fraction of his skill who opts to match wits with rich, clueless drunks is, comparatively speaking, a genius, for in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. This brings us to the question: Why do you win?

Many players spend a great deal of time analyzing why they lose, but that process is often little more than identifying obvious mistakes – "I got married to some hands I should have divorced," "I tilted a bit after those two bad beats," and so on – and resolving to eliminate them. That's all well and good as far as it goes; the trouble is, it doesn't go far enough. There's nothing wrong, of course, with plugging leaks, just as long as you don't confuse it with other essential tasks, like formulating strategy and objectively appraising both your opponents' play and your own. If the moment the losing stops, so too does your reflection, you're making a mistake, for understanding why you win is as important as understanding why you lose.

On any given day, your winning may owe to better play than your opponents, better cards, or a combination of both, and it's important that you know the difference; otherwise, you're in the dark as to whatever edge you may possess. Of course, the not knowing automatically reduces it anyway, for without a firm grasp as to its nature, you can't possibly take full advantage, either in game play or game selection.

Edge is not constant; since games and lineups vary widely in texture, edge bobs and weaves both in nature and degree. In a loose-passive Omaha eight-or-better game, for instance, in which your starting-hand requirements will be quite different from those of many of your opponents, your primary edge will derive from superior preflop decisions. Never mind the other facets of your game; the lion's share of your profit here will result from your opponents playing, and trapping themselves with, lots of costly third- and fourth-best hands that you won't get involved with in the first place. Your ability to make moves, to execute bluffs, or otherwise manipulate – abilities you'd routinely employ for profit in other games – will be of limited benefit to you here. The poker maxim that the most costly mistake is generally the first one tends to be a more democratic truth in Omaha than in many stud and hold'em games (in which the expert's ability to outplay his opponents on later streets makes the "mistake" of playing more starting hands not a mistake at all).

Establishing an edge in many hold'em games, by contrast, games in which many of your opponents are tight-aggressive but fairly predictable, requires the deployment of a different set of skills. Although you may very well make adjustments in your starting-hand choices in such games, those choices will still be closer to those of your opponents than in the loose-passive Omaha game, which is why your edge here will derive primarily from your post-flop play – superior hand-reading, exploiting position and your opponents' predictability, employing setup moves, and generally being more creative than the rest of the table.

Transfer those aggressive opponents to the Omaha game and fail to adjust, and some of your edge disappears. Even with adjustments, enough of it may evaporate to prompt a search for greener grass. Will you recognize that greener grass when you see it? If your strong suits are discipline and patience, but you haven't yet developed a feel for playing players, you may be toast in the aggressive hold'em game, yet have an excellent chance in another typical Omaha game. To an experienced player with plenty of weapons, comfortable in either game, the choice may be less obvious, and may be determined by other factors. With someplace else to be in two hours, he may opt for the game in which his post-flop skills are more in play; with more time at his disposal, the decision might be a coin toss.

When all is said and done, the best game isn't necessarily the one with the hugest pots. The "best game" is the game that best suits your game, the one that plays most to your strengths and away from your weaknesses. Identify those strengths and weaknesses, and those of your opponents, and you'll be in position to exploit the games in which your edge is greatest, and avoid those in which you don't have one.