When Revenge Works Best in Basketball

We are in the midst of that part of the basketball season in which there are lots of "revenge games" on the daily schedule. Revenge can often be a key factor when handicapping basketball, but it is not the only factor. If handicapping were that simple, all of the wise sports bettors would have all the money and there wouldn't be many luxurious hotel-casino resorts in Las Vegas.

Life in the sports-betting world, of course, is not simple. In the first place, oddsmakers are also quite aware that a revenge motivation can be an important part of a handicapper's analysis, so they tend to adjust their opening line accordingly. And they are prepared to move the line further at the first sign of heavy action on the revenge-seeking team. In the second place, not all revenge situations are the same. The handicapper, once he learns the spread on a game, should take a closer look. Here are some situations in which revenge tends to work a little better than others.

Recent losses are better. It's usually the case that the more recent the loss, the better. Today's basketball players, even in the NBA, have very short memories. This was demonstrated in recent years in baseball, when a poll of major leaguers revealed that many of them had no idea who Jackie Robinson was, nor whether he is still alive. In fact, most of today's players are more concerned about the number of minutes they're getting, their course work in college, or having fun on the road than about avenging any previous loss to an opponent. The longer the time between the first loss and the revenge game, the less likely revenge will be a key factor. One obvious example is that in-season revenge tends to work much more often than revenge from the previous season.

Humiliation is worth considering. Losing big can be an attention getter. But, in order for humiliation to be a major factor, the margin must be substantial. My research has shown that a loss of about 35 points or more will do the trick. However, the "A" and "B" teams tend to do better at avenging such a big loss than the "C" teams. The lower-echelon "C" teams usually become kind of used to losing during the season. And during their depressing strings of defeats, even the big ones don't stick out so much.

The more memorable or meaningful the loss, the better. Even with their short memories, players tend to remember losses that cost their teams dearly. And even if the players don't remember, their friends, fans, and coaches usually do a good job of reminding them in the period leading up to the rematch. Losses that cost a team a playoff berth, or league title, or NCAA bid are worth noting in the next meeting – and so are those games in which the opposing players or opposing team's fans "pour it on" or get out of line in terms of rowdy behavior.

Teams that have good chemistry, are playing to their potential, and are in a good rhythm tend to do best in revenge situations. It's these teams that will go out of their way to win by a decisive margin in the rematch, or that will tend to overachieve as underdogs in the next meeting. If a team doesn't "have it together," sports bettors can get in trouble by counting on them to get it together just because they have revenge on their side. It's such erratic, disappointing teams that bring to mind the advice I got from one of my old, late mentors years ago: "Don't expect a sick cat to get well." I haven't. And I'm usually glad I haven't. Well-coached teams, with good morale, momentum, and hustle, tend to take greater advantage in revenge situations, even if they're still young and up-and-coming.

You gotta have the guns. This is the most important element of all in revenge situations. Regardless of the recency of the defeat, or the size of the loss, or the significance of the setback, if a team doesn't have the material to strike the mortal blow to avenge the defeat, it's usually going to have a problem getting the cover. This doesn't necessarily mean that the revenge-minded team has to be the favorite. While it's true that the superior team usually has what it takes to pay back an opponent with a decisive win, revenge underdogs can also be interesting wagers. But, you have to be sure that such underdogs are not outclassed. Also, revenge underdogs can work when they're facing a favored team that is sloppy on defense, or doesn't have much depth, or that is coming off a tough stretch of games, or that is peeking ahead to a very important upcoming game. In those cases, the favorite can be very vulnerable if an underdog plays with more determination from start to finish.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.