The Political Attitudes of Poker Players: Card Player Poll Results

Since the poll questions were posted in Card Player last month, there have been several late-breaking political developments. First and foremost, the Democratic nominee for president will almost certainly be Sen. John Kerry. Second, President George W. Bush's poll numbers continue to decline. Third, many Americans are increasingly concerned about the state of the U.S. economy and the military's mission in post-war Iraq. Finally, a new wild card has been thrown into the political lexicon, referred to by some as a "culture war."

The objective of this poll was to measure the political attitudes of poker players. I was particularly interested in comparing these attitudes with those of the general population. It should be noted that Card Player traditionally has a strong policy of nonpartisanship and takes no political affiliation. This poll is truly unique, as it is the first attempt to measure the political attitudes of the poker subculture.

In order to determine if the political attitudes of poker players differ from those of the rest of society, the following poll numbers were compared to poll results from two mainstream news sources: The Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted on Feb. 6, and the CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls conducted Feb. 5 through Feb. 8. It was vital that all poll results be taken within roughly the same time period. This ensured that the responses were within the same context of political and economic events.

Here are the results, along with my comments:

Question 1: If forced to choose one political philosophy, do you consider yourself to be a liberal or a conservative?

Liberal – 44 percent

Conservative – 56 percent

(1,499 respondents)

Comments: According to the Card Player poll, poker players tend to be slightly more conservative than the general population. The mainstream electorate is split right down the middle on this question, as the majority identify themselves as "moderate" when at least three options are listed. However, when given only two options, recent USA Today and Gallup polls showed that conservatives outnumber liberals – 52 percent to 48 percent. Although it was not done, breaking down this question into two subcategories – economic and social attitudes – might have been even more revealing. I suspect that the majority of poker players identify themselves as "economically conservative" and "socially liberal." Yet, when forced to align themselves with just one political philosophy, the conservative tag appears to fit slightly more poker players.

Question 2: If forced to choose one political party, do you consider yourself a Republican or a Democrat?

Republican – 56 percent

Democrat – 44 percent

(1,624 respondents)

Comments: According to the poll results, more poker players lean toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. This should not be surprising, given the results from Question No. 1. Most would agree that the Republican Party is generally considered to represent conservative interests, while liberals tend to align themselves with the Democratic Party. So, these poll numbers are entirely consistent. One possible explanation for why more poker players identify themselves as Republicans could be the widespread legalization of poker in Western states, which – except for California – is widely considered to be Republican territory. The Democratic stronghold lies in the Northeast, where only a few states (notably, Connecticut and New Jersey) offer legalized poker. That's another way of saying these poll results could be skewed in favor of a larger poker-playing population base in Western (that is, Republican) states.

Question 3: In general, do you believe George W. Bush is doing a good or bad job as president?

Good job – 47 percent

Bad job – 53 percent

(1,718 respondents)

Comments: President Bush's national approval ratings stood in the 52 percent to 53 percent range when this poll question was posted on the Card Player website. The Washington Post/ABC News poll numbers gave the president an approval rating of 52 percent, while USA Today showed the number was slightly higher, at 53 percent. Therefore, we may conclude that a higher percentage of poker players hold a negative opinion of President Bush's job performance than the general population. In fact, 53 percent of poker players do not approve of President Bush's job performance – a difference of 6 percentage points from the national polls.

Question 4: Are you "better off" now than you were four years ago – defined as February of 2004 contrasted with February of 2000?

Better off – 75 percent

Worse off – 25 percent

(1,408 respondents)

Comments: This question has been used by pollsters in every presidential election since 1980, when then-candidate Ronald Reagan asked voters rhetorically, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" These results were surprising, especially when compared with the slightly unfavorable views toward President Bush. Respondents seem to be saying they are "better off" than four years ago, but are still dissatisfied with the current national leadership. One possible explanation for this apparent abnormality is that poker players as a class (particularly those who voted on the Card Player website) are more affluent, and therefore more satisfied with their own financial status, than members of the general population. As evidence, the latest Gallup poll showed that mainstream America believes they are "worse off" now than four years ago – by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent. So, the Card Player numbers show that poker players perceive things in a drastically different way.

Question 5: Does a candidate's views on gambling and casinos influence your decision to support or oppose that candidate?

Yes – 62 percent

No – 38 percent

(1,245 respondents)

Comments: The notion that gamblers are not a bona fide political "constituency" are gone. Years ago, there was no consensus "pro-gambling" voting bloc that had any measurable impact on the political landscape. Now, with the proliferation of casino gambling over the past decade, combined with poker's emerging mainstream popularity, gamblers have effectively become a constituency with power at the ballot box. By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, poker players say they consider a candidate's views on gambling when casting their votes. Political candidates can no longer pander to unfounded fears and blind ignorance about gambling issues and expect to win broad support.

Question 6: If a candidate is adamantly opposed to legalizing gambling and poker, how important is that as a factor in your decision to be for or against that candidate?

It's important – 81 percent

It's not important at all – 19 percent

(1,368 respondents)

Comments: Poker players have a very clear message for political candidates. Those who are opposed to legalized gambling and poker will not receive the votes of poker players. By an overwhelming 4-to-1 margin, a candidate's views on gambling may very well indicate whether or not that candidate will receive the vote of the poker player. Included in this voting bloc is a sizable percentage who believe a candidate's views toward gambling are a litmus test for broader, more weighty political issues. I suspect that many poker players believe that a candidate's support or opposition to gambling reveals his or her views on personal freedom and individual responsibility. Supporters of legalized gambling generally believe that individuals should be permitted to make decisions for themselves, and don't want the government assuming the role of "Big Brother."

Question 7: Is casino gambling and/or casino poker legal within driving distance of your home? (Note: This does not include online poker.)

Yes – 75 percent

No – 25 percent

(1,691 respondents)

<>Comments: For those who think poker is "everywhere," consider the following: Only about one-third of the U.S. population lives within driving distance of a poker room (if defined as within 100 miles). So, poker still has a long way to go to truly become the new national pastime. Internationally, the majority of the world's population still lives in the Dark Ages. Although poker has made great progress in many regions, relatively few countries offer poker. Given the poll numbers on this question, it's pretty clear that Card Player poll respondents are concentrated in areas where brick-and-mortar cardrooms exist.

Question 8 (only for voters in areas where no legalized gambling or poker exists): Would you support a local referendum that would allow casino-style gambling and poker in your area?

Yes – 95 percent

No – 5 percent

(647 respondents)

Question 9: It's been suggested that third-party Libertarians represent a sizable percentage of poker players for their progressive views on freedom and individual responsibility. Have you ever, or would you ever, vote for a Libertarian candidate?

Yes – 53 percent

No – 47 percent

(1,459 respondents)

Comments: I thought it would be interesting to see if poker players are more open to considering a third-party candidate than the general public. In most elections, Libertarians win no more than a tiny percentage of votes. In fact, third-party candidates do quite poorly – no matter what their political affiliation. However, based on these poll numbers, poker players appear to be much more open to the possibility of supporting a third-party candidate, specifically a Libertarian. Based on numerous political discussions I've had over the years, many poker players believe the two-party system severely limits real dialogue and discourages adapting real solutions to our problems. It appears that poker players tend to be much more independent-minded than the general population.

Question 10: Do you intend to vote in the general election in November?

Yes – 89 percent

No – 11 percent

(1,411 respondents)

Comments: The Gallup poll conducted in February revealed that only 72 percent of American adults plan to vote in the November general election. Of course, we know from previous voter turnout that the actual voting percentage is much lower, closer to 50 percent. It's impossible to say if poker players are more politically active than the general population. But based on these percentages – 17 points higher than the Gallup poll numbers – it appears that greater numbers of poker players will be taking an interest in the next election.

Question 11: If the general election were held today, would you most likely vote for President Bush or the Democratic nominee?

President Bush – 47 percent

The Democratic Nominee (Kerry) – 53 percent

(1,604 respondents)

Comments: These percentages are consistent with previous poll numbers on President Bush's approval rating. By the exact same percentage – 53 percent to 47 percent – poker players say they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate, expected to be John Kerry. However, it is important to point out that this poll was conducted when there were four viable Democratic candidates in the race. It remains to be seen if Kerry receives all of the support of the anti-Bush bloc. Bush supporters can also argue that the Democratic candidate's poll numbers are inflated – both in the poll and nationally – due to intense media coverage of the Democratic primaries and the barrage of anti-Bush rhetoric by the opposition candidates.

Question 12: In general, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the nation's future?

Optimistic – 59 percent

Pessimistic – 41 percent

(1,226 respondents)

Comments: By nearly a 3-to-2 margin, poker players are optimistic about the future of the country. This is slightly higher than Gallup poll numbers. In that poll, voters were asked about their level of confidence in the economy and several other issues; 51 percent said they are optimistic about the country's economic future. Smaller numbers expressed optimism about social conditions and international policy. The fact that 59 percent of poker players are "optimists" suggests strong differences in attitude from the general population. There are two possible explanations: Poker players (who responded) are more affluent, and therefore more optimistic about the nation's future. The other explanation may be that poker players, by nature, are optimistic people. We tend to believe we will win prior to any given poker session; otherwise, why would we play? This same optimism applies to their degree of personal satisfaction (Question No. 4) and level of optimism for the future of the country (Question No. 12).