Dealing With the 'Off Teams' in the NCAA Tourney

Shortly after this issue of Card Player hits the stands, the always exciting NCAA basketball tournament will be tipping off. And, as always, the field will include a dozen or so "off" teams – that is, teams from lower-echelon conferences whose games are not listed on the regular, main Las Vegas line. What should you do?

Well, one obvious answer is to "pass" on those games and focus your attention on handicapping games that involve opponents with whom you are very familiar. As I've written many times before, in the endeavor of sports betting, it's not a good habit to take wild guesses about the outcome of ballgames.

However, handicapping the entire NCAA tourney field has become a popular pastime, not only for professional sports bettors, but also for part-time sports fans who have to fill in the tourney brackets for the many variations of their office pools, personal head-to-head contests, and the like. And once you start dealing with the entire 64-team NCAA field (let's ignore that new play-in game for the 64th spot), you must deal with the "off" teams.

Here are a few approaches that have proven useful in the past:

First, get some information. Usually, but not always, more information is better than less. Newspapers and Internet columns will be full of stats and notes for a day or two after the field is chosen. A solid background publication such as the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook is also very helpful. Those who are really serious should have invested some time in the previous days watching the televised conference tourney action leading up to "Selection Sunday." For me, it's beneficial to see the players in action.

Ask yourself the basic question, "Can this team play?" If a team is truly mediocre but enjoyed great fortune in its conference tourney due to upsets involving the league's best teams, I become dubious of supporting it. It's not wise to count on serendipity in sports betting, even though strange things always can happen. Look for teams that thoroughly dominated their league in the regular season, and then rolled to their conference tourney title. Last year in the NCAA tourney, the 12 "off" teams in the field ended up going 5-7 versus the spread, and were eliminated in the first round. Two of the three "off" teams with the best straight-up records (Holy Cross 26-4 and Troy State 26-5) covered in their first-round games (Weber State, also 26-5, came within a half-point of covering against Big Ten champ Wisconsin). It's good to be good.

Schools with well-established programs tend to do a little better. Teams from Western Kentucky, Gonzaga (now both on the regular line), Weber State, Murray State, and a few others have enjoyed some success in recent years. The College of Charleston is trying to join that group. Programs at these schools and several others are designed to contend for the postseason year after year, not just now and again.

Consider the league pedigree of the "off" teams. For example, Big Sky representatives are 2-10 straight up, but 7-4-1 versus the spread the last 10 years. Teams from the Patriot League are 6-4 versus the number. Teams from the American East are only 2-9.

Experience counts. "Off" teams tend to do a little better versus the spread when they have a core of very seasoned players, especially in the backcourt. It is true, however, that experience is less of a factor these days than it was in the past, at all levels of basketball. It's a relatively simple game. Coaching and broad exposure at the high school level gets better every year.

Find out if the "off" team can shoot. Some teams in lower-echelon leagues can win even if they don't shoot well, especially if those teams have either lots of height or lots of quick athletes to press. Those edges often disappear when they step up in class, however. If a team can't shoot, it's going to have a hard time keeping pace in the NCAAs with teams that can.

Check if it has an outstanding player or two. Not just a good player, but a dominator at his level, because that player is likely going to have to come through with a terrific performance if the "off" team is going to hang in against classier opposition.

Look for a "low-variance" opponent. For my money, this might be the most important guideline. Without getting specific regarding the math, "off" teams have a better shot of covering their game if they're not facing a team with a volatile offense that likes to run up a lot of points, even if it might also give up a lot. "Off" teams often do well when they're facing teams that like to control the pace and are patient. Such disciplined teams often beat a foe thoroughly and control the game from start to finish, even though the final margin isn't eye-opening at the end. One example from last year might be Big 12 champ Oklahoma – tough on defense but controlled on offense – which won only 71-54 over totally outclassed South Carolina State, with the Sooners laying 27 points. (It helped that Oklahoma tried to give lots of rest to star guard Hollis Price, who was nursing a sore groin after the rigorous Big 12 tourney.) Also, East Tennessee State, getting 12 points, stayed within reach of ACC power Wake Forest in a 76-73 loss, as the Deacons played most of last year without a true point guard to ignite their offense.

With just a little homework, you'll soon learn which of the "off" teams are worth the risk and which ones aren't likely to be trustworthy.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.