Don't Miss the First Round of the Playoffs

In sports betting, as in poker, one of the first things each person must determine is his own attitude. That is to say, you must decide whether you are "playing" to win, or merely "playing" to play.

If you're betting just because you enjoy the thrill of having a few bucks riding on the outcome of a game, you can have a lot of fun, because, except for a few days every year, there's action in one of the major sports every day, with more games than ever on TV.

However, if you're "playing" because you want to win, that's a different deal. If you're determined to win – instead of just "play" – you have disciplined yourself to study the players and the teams a little more, search the sportsbooks for line value, practice proper money management, and limit your wagers to teams that are "in the favorable fishing waters" for sports bets each day or each week. A little research over the years has shown that the first round of the NBA playoffs contains lots of those positive situations.

Last year at about this same time, I pointed out that I would look at the results of the first round of the 2002 NBA playoffs with great interest. That's because the NBA had decided to change round one from a best-of-five series, with which we had become familiar in recent years, to a best-of-seven series beginning in 2002. Since the first round involves the usually marginal seventh- and eighth-place teams in each conference, I wanted to see if the longer series was going to negatively impact some previously profitable pointspread tendencies that I had begun to count on during the sports betting annual calendar.

The good news is, no. Despite the longer series, once again the first round had a trend element. I never recommend making bets on trends alone; you must always consider the overall picture. Still, it can be very useful to know previous trends.

In last year's first round of the playoffs, the zigzag teams were 23-17-1 versus the spread. And the zigzag home teams in the first round were an even better 16-9-1. That's 60 percent, which is a very good percentage in sports betting.

Over the last six years in round one of the NBA playoffs, zigzag teams are now 97-68-1 versus the spread. And the zigzag home teams in round one are now 56-28-1 – 66.7 percent.

"Zigzag" teams are nothing more than the revenge teams in a playoff series – that is, the teams that lost the previous game straight up. And the zigzag home teams are those that lost the previous game and are at home in the ensuing game. The first round of the playoffs is now set in the familiar 2-2-1-1-1 format, with each team playing two of the first four at home, and then alternating home-and-home until one team gets its fourth win.

The zigzag theory embodies one of the simplest angles in sports betting – that the loser in a game usually tends to play just a little harder in the next meeting between the same two teams, while the team that previously won might tend to let its guard down a little. It's basic human sports psychology. Of course, the oddsmaker adjusts the line a little to include the revenge angle as one of the aspects of the game. But as recent history has shown, the adjustment hasn't quite been enough – in percentage terms – when the zigzag team is playing before its home fans.

Here's one other note: In four of the previous five years in the NBA playoffs, the "unders" outnumbered the "overs" in round one. Such was not the case last year in the return to the best-of-seven format for the first round. In 2002, the "overs" outperformed the "unders" 31-17-1. That represented quite a turnaround from the previous five years, when the "overs" trailed the "unders" by a 71-93-3 count.

My first thought is that the best-of-seven format ended up giving the best offensive teams in the league just a few more games to do their thing, thus producing a few more "overs." Still, that doesn't explain such a dramatic reversal of form compared with the previous five years. Quite naturally, I'll be watching the totals in round one this year. And if I see an early indication that last year's strong "over" tendency is continuing, I'll be prepared to look at the "map" (that is, the sports betting card), searching for some "favorable fishing streams" in which to test the waters.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.