The Ugly and the Bad

Playing in an Omaha high-low tournament, I had an average amount of chips going into the third level, $50-$100. In the big blind I picked up an ugly 10 4 2 2. The player to my immediate left raised before the flop, and there was only one caller around to me. Should I defend my blind?

Although I probably would avoid these second-best holdings in loose Omaha high-low games with five or more callers (because making my low or flush would too often be second-best), in shorthanded play, this ugliness is not so bad. So, I defended my blind.

To give you an overview of this situation, the opponent on my immediate left had the A 9 and a 6 and a deuce; the other opponent had the A 5 and a 4 and a jack. Running these three hands on Mike Caro's Poker Probe indicates that before the flop, opponent No. 1 wins 42 percent of the time, opponent No. 2 wins 27 percent of the time, and I win 31 percent of the time.

The flop was favorable – J 5 3, giving me a draw for a wheel, a 6-high straight, and a spade flush. Everybody seemed to like the flop; I checked, and there was a bet and a raise to me, which I called. Simulating these hands with this flop on Poker Probe indicates that opponent No. 1 now wins only 32 percent of the time, opponent No. 2 (with top two pair) wins 38 percent of the time, and I win 30 percent of the time.

The turn card was the less-than-helpful 3, giving opponent No. 1 the big heart-flush draw in addition to his nut-low draw. I checked, he bet, and both opponent No. 2 and I called. This turn card did not change the expectations much. According to Poker Probe, opponent No. 1 now wins about 32 percent of the time, opponent No. 2 about 40 percent of the time, and I win 28 percent of the time.

I was rooting for the final card to be an ace, a 6, or a spade, but it wasn't. However, the card that did come gave me the whole pot (about $1,000 in chips; no one bet), which put me in contention. Quiz question: Can you figure out what the fifth card was? The answer appears at the end of this column.

With two tables remaining, the stakes went up to no-limit with the blinds at $100-$200. After suffering a big loss, I was down to $2,900 in chips remaining – and $200 of that was now in the pot as my big blind.

Two of the eight remaining players limped in for $200; both of them were also short-stacked. The small blind called. Based on their previous aggressive performances, I judged that no one had a good hand.

Looking at an 8-5 suited and an ace and a queen, I attempted to pick up the $800 in the pot by moving all in with my $2,700!

The two limpers folded; the small blind, who had about $5,000, held pocket jacks, a suited king, and a 10. Would you call a $2,700 raise with this hand, with $3,500 total in the pot?

"I can't let you steal it," he said, and called. We turned our hands faceup. Although some might find his high hand attractive, it was actually a bad call, as his hand rated to win less than 30 percent of the time against a typical raising hand such as an ace with several low cards.

Note that although his hand is a good one in high Omaha, in Omaha high-low, a high-only hand has a sound positive expectation only when there are several callers and a high flop.

The actual result was that his jacks lost high when I made two pair (or, more often, when there is an ace on board). I also made an "emergency" low, which would have saved me half the pot if he had won high. The bottom line is that he should have found a greener pasture to invest more than half of his chips.

Answer to the quiz question above: The final boardcard was a third 3! Hence, my tiny full house won the whole pot (there was no low).