Drawing Dead and Getting There!

Sometimes poker decisions can get mighty complicated and tricky. A combination of mathematical analysis and hand-reading skills are necessary to draw a correct conclusion. Great poker players learn to do both well. Of course, sometimes, no matter how correct your analysis may be, and no matter how carefully you think through a problem, you're just dead wrong.

I recently sat down in a tight, tough $30-$60 game. After viewing the lineup, I immediately asked the floorman to put me up on the transfer list. The value in poker does not necessarily come from how well you play, but from the difference in ability between your opponents and yourself. Being a good handicapper of both your own and your opponents' abilities has a great deal of value in the poker world. The game I had sat down in stunk! Nonetheless, I was stuck in it until my name came up on the transfer list.

I posted the entry blind behind the button. Three players were walking, looking for the game to change texture, so the game was being played sevenhanded. A tight pro raised up front, and everyone folded between us. I looked down to an A-K offsuit. Thinking this was a nice way to start my session, I fired $90 into the pot. The button folded and the small blind, a very nitty, tight, struggling pro, made the pot four bets to go. The big blind folded and the opener called the raises.

The four-bettor was never the type to mess around, particularly from out of position with my three-betting the pot. I knew he held a huge hand. I had never seen him four-bet without a pair of queens or better. Even though I had position on the field, I did not want to reraise him with an A-K. I flat-called the fourth bet.

The flop came down 5-4-4 rainbow. The four-bettor led into the pot and the original opener folded. There were 14 bets in the pot, giving me 14-1 current pot odds. Assuming that he had A-A, K-K, or Q-Q, he was even money to have Q-Q. I calculated that by analyzing the number of combinations of each hand that were possible and comparing the combinations to each other. There were six combinations of Q-Q available, and three each of A-A and K-K, since I held an ace and a king, removing three of the combinations possible of each pair. Therefore, in 50 percent of the scenarios available (the ones in which he held Q-Q), I would be drawing to two overcards. In 25 percent of the scenarios available, I would be drawing to three wins (needing to hit an ace when he held K-K), and in the other 25 percent of the scenario, I would be drawing to two runners, needing running K-K when he held A-A. Of course, in all situations, I did face a redraw if he improved his hand on the river.

Since I was getting 14-1 and needed to have only around a 45 percent chance to win if I hit (a little more than 6-1 was neutral) to make the price correct, I was getting an overlay from the pot at that time. I had greater than a 45 percent chance to win if I hit an ace or a king. Those odds need to be adjusted if you think your opponent is more likely to gain further bets from you than you are from him if you hit your hand. In this case, I thought it was neutral. I called the bet.

The turn card was the K. I liked my hand much less when he bet again. Still, I thought he might well bet Q-Q in that spot, hoping that I had a smaller pair. I called his bet. The 10 came on the river. He fired again. I called. He showed me A-A and took the pot.

I was drawing practically dead. I hate drawing dead! Anytime I find myself drawing dead, I make an extra effort to analyze the hand in retrospect to see if I could have avoided the trap. When you draw dead, the money has no return value on the investment at all, and it takes away a lot of value of marginally correct situations in order to make up for that lost value. That said, sometimes it cannot be helped. It is often correct to take the risk that you may be drawing dead, due to the fact that the pot is offering you a large overlay should you be drawing live. In some of those scenarios, inevitably, you will be drawing dead.

Sometimes, no matter how right your analysis seems, you're just wrong. That's just part of poker, and for that matter, often part of life. I guess the good news for me is that I've been hitting my fair share of draws in life. I'd much rather draw well there than in poker.

Editor's note: Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas – please see his ad on Page 123.