Semibluffing

By semibluffing, I am referring to betting or raising with a hand that may not be the best but has outs when it is called, or has a real chance of making a better hand fold to win the pot outright. The semibluff is an important weapon in the arsenal of a good player, accounting for a significant portion of his earn over the course of a year. When properly utilized, it allows the good player to win in many situations without having the best hand. But the key is that you should have a very real probability of winning the pot outright by betting or raising. If the texture of the board, the number of opponents, or the previous betting action indicates that this is not the case, semibluffing is usually wrong. The following five hands, taken from live play, illustrate when and when not to employ this concept.

Hand No. 1 ($10-$20 game): You limp in from middle position with the J 10 behind an early limper. The button and small blind also limp. There is $50 in the pot and five players.

The flop is K Q 3, giving you a flush draw and an open-end straight draw. It is checked to you. You bet and the button raises. Everyone folds to you. What should you do?

Answer: Reraise. With 15 outs and two cards to come, you are a mathematical favorite to make a flush or a straight by the river, and you will be going to the river with this hand. The button may be raising on a come hand himself, hoping for a free card. Not only should you reraise, you should plan on betting the turn unless your opponent four-bets you here on the flop and a blank comes on the turn.

In the actual hand, the player just called. The turn was the 7. He checked and the button bet. He called. The river was the 2. It was checked down. The button won a $130 pot with the Q 10 for a middle pair of queens. Not to play results, but had the player reraised on the flop and followed through with a bet on the turn, the button would have been hard-pressed to call, in my opinion.

Hand No. 2 ($10-$20 game): You have the J J in middle position and raise an early-position limper. The big blind calls. The early-position limper now reraises. You call, as does the big blind. There is $95 in the pot and three players.

The flop is 10 8 4, giving you an overpair and a backdoor flush draw. The big blind checks, the early-position player bets, you raise, and the big blind folds. The early-position player reraises, and you call. There is $155 in the pot and two players.

The turn is the 9, giving you an open-end straight flush draw as well as your overpair. Your opponent bets. What should you do?

Answer: Call. You should just call despite having picked up an open-end straight flush draw. It would be a bad semibluff play to raise here, given the power sequence both preflop and on the flop displayed by your opponent. He either has a bigger overpair than you or might just happen to have the A K. Granted, you have 15 outs to a flush or a straight, and could even make a straight flush, but the problem is that your opponent will not fold when you raise and he might even reraise. Note also that if he happens to have a spade, it is probably bigger than yours, so your flush outs will not win for you 100 percent of the time.

Hand No. 3 ($10-$20 game): You are in middle position with the Q J and limp in behind an early-position limper and another middle-position limper. The small blind also limps in. There is $50 in the pot and five players.

The flop is K 10 3, giving you an open-end straight draw. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, and both limpers fold. What should you do?

Answer: Raise. Despite having an ordinary draw, you have position and it looks like this pot will be heads up. The raise will give you some leverage on later streets, such as allowing you a free card or positioning you to make another semibluff play.

Hand No. 4 ($15-$30 game): You are in middle position with the 7 7. An early-position player and another middle-position player limp in. The middle-position player is very loose and aggressive. You have noticed that he frequently bets with nothing and likes to bluff a lot. You also limp in. There is $70 in the pot and four players.

The flop is J 6 3, giving you second pair (a pocket pair higher than middle pair but lower than top pair). The big blind and the early-position player check. The middle-position player bets. What should you do?

Answer: Raise. You should raise because: (1) you may well have the best hand based on what you have observed about the bettor, (2) you could win the pot outright against three opponents, (3) you have outs if you are called, (4) you can eliminate players, (5) you may get free cards to the river if you choose, since you have position over the bettor, and, most importantly, (6) there is no flush draw on the flop and no real hand for you to be drawing to, which means your opponent is more likely to put you on some kind of made hand, like top pair, good kicker, making it less likely that he will stay with you.

In the actual hand, the player raised and only the bettor called. The turn was the 4, giving the player a gutshot-straight draw in addition to his pair of sevens. His opponent checked, he bet, and his opponent folded.

Hand No. 5 ($20-$40 game): You are in the cutoff seat with the K 10. An early-position player and two middle-position players limp in. You also limp in, as does the small blind. There is $120 in the pot and six players.

The flop is J 9 3, giving you a gutshot-straight draw, a backdoor-flush draw, and an overcard. The small blind bets and only the early-position limper folds. You call. There is $220 in the pot and five players.

The turn is the A, now giving you the nut-flush draw. It is checked to you. What should you do?

Answer: Check. While it is tempting to semibluff, having picked up the nut-flush draw, giving you a total of 12 outs (nine flush cards plus three queens, assuming that the straight will win if it hits), I prefer checking because you have four opponents, making it very unlikely that you will win the pot outright. One could argue that mathematically, a bet would be sound because if all of your opponents call, betting pulls into the pot another $160 for a $40 bet, and a 12-outer is only 34-to-12 against. But, everyone may not call and you could get raised, especially if someone was slow-playing a made flush.