Tangibles vs. the Intangibles

A few weeks ago, a loyal, longtime subscriber to the late telephone service at my home base of The Gold Sheet in Los Angeles asked me my opinion of several games he was considering as wagering vehicles that week. Inasmuch as we have done quite well in recent years on our football phone service and had gotten off to a very good start (knock on wood) in the 2001 season, I asked him why he was interested in that particular string of games.

It's always been my idea that unless you are a well-heeled professional "volume player" (who considers every game that has an edge to be in the "a play, is a play, is a play" category, and is prepared to take a couple of 10-21 losing weekends each season), you shouldn't screw up your high-potential winning days by adding a lot of low-percentage or 50-50 plays to your wagering list on any given weekend. Taking low-percentage plays and guessing at games is a good way to give back some of your hard-earned profit to "the man."

Upon questioning, our customer did have a reason or two for considering wagers on the teams he inquired about. But, it struck me that virtually all of his reasons involved either some trend that he had uncovered or had read about or some psychological or motivational edge that he perceived would make a difference.

It was at that point that I advised him he shouldn't be so quick to emphasize intangible edges over the fundamental matchups in the games (the tangibles). "Such as what?" he asked. Such as QB experience, a stronger defense, a superior offensive line, a veteran secondary, team speed and depth, and an established placekicker. Those were some of the factors I quickly rattled off. He just as quickly shortened his list to a few teams with which he was very familiar.

My point was not merely to discourage him from expanding his wagering list until there were no more high-percentage games left. It was to point out that the tangibles should always be considered before the intangibles are considered. If you choose games just on their intangibles, you're going to have a hard time winning in the long run. Fundamentals are the most important element in handicapping. Intangibles such as psychology, technical trends, travel factors, schedule dynamics, and the like are always worth considering, but they must be kept in perspective.

In fact, it has long been my stance that most perceived psychological edges in a game usually exist more in the mind of the bettor than they do in the minds of the players and coaches. No matter how much hype, hate, or revenge is discussed in the media going into any football game, most veteran handicappers know that once the players stop their pregame jumping up and down and smash each other in the mouths for about 15 or 20 minutes, the perceived psychological edge goes out the window and the fundamentals and momentum-swinging big plays take over and decide the game.

Here are a few notes on some other popular intangibles. I believe they're popular among the wagering public because ideas such as revenge, technical trends, home-field advantage, extra rest, difficult travel, short turnarounds, "must-win" games, "look-ahead" games, "sandwich" games, "hangover" games, and on and on are more easy to identify and discuss than the intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of each team (which take a considerable amount of hard work to uncover and follow). Following are a few brief caveats regarding these intangibles:

Revenge: Easily accounted for in the pointspread by the oddsmaker. Often neutralized by other factors (youth, dissension). Works best with veteran teams who "have the guns" to pour it on.

Technical trends: Many of the best end every day. The Cowboys used to be a powerhouse. You can look at the past to get keys to help you gain perspective, but you can't use the past, in and of itself, to predict future results (if you could, life would be so easy).

Home-field advantage: Very often overrated, especially in the NFL, NBA, and baseball playoffs. The visitor covered every game in last year's NBA finals. The visitor won four of five in this year's A's-Yankees playoff.

Extra rest: Most NBA teams travel in luxurious comfort and are used to back-to-back games. Visiting teams on Monday Night Football adjusted to the following shortened work week long ago. "Bye" teams in the NFL facing unrested teams the next week are only 13-22-1 vs. the spread the last one and a half seasons. For them, the rest meant rust.

Must-win games: Just because a team wants to win doesn't mean it can win. The other guys want to win, too. For weak or mediocre teams, "must win" usually means "can't win," as those teams aren't used to the extra pressure.

Sandwich games: Momentum can help teams play through "sandwich" spots. Back in October, upstart 6-0 Maryland won a big nationally televised overtime game at Georgia Tech, and then had a "sandwich" spot (laying 25 points) vs. winless Duke before facing ACC dominator Florida State in Tallahassee. The Terrapins led 35-7 after 20 minutes vs. the Blue Devils, and won 59-17; no turtle sandwich that week.

Hangover games: Was Fresno State experiencing a "hangover" after it upset Sports Illustrated's top team (Oregon State) on a Sunday night and then had to travel to Wisconsin to play the powerful Badgers? Not exactly. The Bulldogs won 32-20 in Madison. Auburn, after beating top-ranked Florida, however, all but succumbed to the effects of the celebration, being forced into overtime the next week by Louisiana Tech before winning 48-41.

Look-ahead games: Some of these have worked nicely. Miami (-49.5) gave backups plenty of work in its 38-7 victory over Troy State before the Hurricane game at Florida State. Neither Oklahoma (-35.5 vs. Baylor) nor Nebraska (-26 vs. Texas Tech) covered prior to their showdown in Lincoln. A little indifference is best combined with lots and lots of points.

So, don't disregard intangibles. In fact, go ahead and consider all of them. But, if you repeatedly emphasize the intangibles over the tangibles, you will do so at great peril to your bankroll.

Chuck Sippl is senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the "bible" for sports bettors since 1957. To get more handicapping advice, forecasts, angles, power ratings, and emerging-player information, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to review a complimentary copy, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say you read about The Gold Sheet in Card Player. You can check the web at www.goldsheet.com.