Betting the River

Knowing when to bet the river is a nice source of profit for a good hold'em player. Failure to collect an extra double bet on the end when you have the best hand can cost you money over the course of a year. Furthermore, the river presents some interesting bluffing opportunities that a good player knows how to exploit. However, always betting the river because you think you might have the best hand or can bluff is a costly mistake and could seriously erode your long-term earn. So, what factors come into play? Perhaps the following hands taken from live play will illuminate some of them. It should be noted that these hands were taken from real games, and not all of the plays leading up to the problem in question are sound.

Hand No. 1 ($40-$80 game): You limp in with the A 3 from middle position behind two early-position players and another middle-position player. The cutoff and small blind also limp in. There is $280 in the pot and seven players. The flop arrives with 5 2 2, giving you a gutshot-straight draw and an ace overcard. The small blind checks and the big blind bets. It is folded to you. You are getting 8-to-1 pot odds and have anywhere from three to seven outs. You make a very dubious call. The cutoff raises and only the big blind and you call. There is $520 in the pot and three players. The turn is the K. Everyone checks. The river is the J. The big blind checks. What should you do?

Answer: Bet. With everyone checking the turn after a big card shows up, it looks like no one has a deuce or a king. Your two opponents were probably playing with drawing hands or a lower pair than kings. Note that your check on the turn does not deny a king, since you could be merely "checking to the raiser." The offsuit jack appearing at the river is unlikely to have helped anyone. One of your two opponents has checked. You have an outside chance of picking up this $520 pot with an $80 bet. Both opponents will fold a busted draw unless one of them happens to have the J. A guy with a better ace, a pair of fives, or even a higher pair may fold as well when looking at two overcards on the table.

Hand No. 2 ($15-$30 game): You limp in under the gun with the K Q. A middle-position player also limps in. A top pro who normally plays $30-$60 raises from the cutoff seat. Only the big blind, you, and the middle-position player call. There is $130 in the pot and four players. The flop is 7 5 3, giving you two overcards and a backdoor-flush draw. Everyone checks. The turn is the 10, giving you a flush draw. The big blind checks. You bet, having nine outs to a flush plus six additional outs to top pair. Your three opponents may fold, and you have 15 outs if you get called. Only the big blind calls. There is $190 in the pot and two players. The river is the 9. The big blind checks. What should you do?

Answer: Check. Despite not having an ace, your hand is good enough to show down in this particular situation. Your opponent will call with any pair, so your bluff works only if he has an ace and will fold. But what ace could he have? He called a raise from the big blind and did not bet the flop, but he check-called the turn. Would he call your turn bet with an ace and no pair? He may have ace-little in diamonds. He may have A-2, A-4, or A-6, which would give him some outs to a straight in addition to his overcard outs. But this seems too remote. There are other drawing hands he could have that didn't get there and that still give you the best hand.

Hand No. 3 ($20-$40 game): You are in the cutoff seat with the K 9. A very loose middle-position player opens with a raise. You have observed this player open-raising from middle position with small pocket pairs and small suited connectors. Of course, he will raise with his good hands, as well. You make a speculative call. The button calls. There is $150 in the pot and three players. The flop is 9 5 3, giving you top pair, excellent kicker, and a big flush draw. The middle-position player bets and you raise. Both opponents call. There is $270 in the pot. The turn is the 3. It is checked to you. You bet and only the button calls. There is $350 in the pot and two players. The river is the 2. What should you do?

Answer: Bet. The river card is a blank, and worse hands will call. If the button was playing a worse 9 or a medium pocket pair such as sixes, sevens, or eights, he will pay you off. He might call you with most anything if he thought you were drawing and missed.

Hand No. 4 ($20-$40 game): You are in the small blind with the 4 4. An early-position player and two middle-position players call. You also call. There is $100 in the pot and five players. The flop is K 10 4, giving you bottom set. You bet, the big blind folds, and the early-position player calls. The first middle-position player raises and the next player folds. You reraise, and only the raiser calls. There is $240 in the pot and two players. The turn is the 5. You bet and your opponent calls. There is $320 in the pot. The river is the J. What should you do?

Answer: Check. This card not only makes a flush possible, but a straight as well, especially if your opponent had A-Q with a club.

Hand No. 5 ($15-$30 game): You are in the cutoff seat with the A J and open with a raise. Only the big blind calls. There is $70 in the pot and two players. The flop is A 7 6, giving you top pair, decent kicker, and a backdoor-flush draw. The big blind checks, you bet, and he calls. There is $100 in the pot. The turn is the 8. Your opponent checks, you bet, and he now raises. He may have you beat, but he may be semibluffing a big draw, since there is both a two-flush and three parts to a straight on the table. You call. There is $220 in the pot. The river arrives with the 10. Your opponent now checks. What should you do?

Answer: Check. If your opponent had a hand you could beat, like a weaker ace, he probably would not have check-raised the turn. It is unlikely that you will get calls from worse hands given the betting sequence. A better hand, like two pair, will always call. An opponent having a better hand may not have bet because he is concerned about the four parts to a straight now on the table. Finally, if your opponent was drawing, the 10 could have given him what he was looking for, and he might be checking, hoping you will bet so that he can raise.

Hand No. 6 ($30-$60 game): You limp in from middle position with the A 7 behind an early-position player. Another middle-position player, the cutoff, and the small blind all call. The big blind raises and everyone calls. There is $360 in the pot and six players. The flop is Q 8 7, giving you bottom pair with an ace overcard. The small blind checks and the big blind bets. The early-position player folds. You call and everyone else folds. There is $420 in the pot and two players. The turn is the A, giving you two pair. The big blind bets and you raise. He calls. There is $660 in the pot. The river is the 2. The big blind checks. What should you do?

Answer: Bet. If the big blind had a heart flush, it would be the nut flush or close enough to it that he would have three-bet you on the turn. When he just calls you on the turn and now checks to you on the river, your two pair looks good. You will get calls from A-K or maybe even pocket kings.

Editor's note: Jim Brier has co-authored a new book with Bob Ciaffone entitled Middle Limit Holdem Poker. It is available through Card Player.