Over/Under Thoughts on the NCAA Tourney

By the time this issue hits the stands, the NCAA tourney will be going full blast. The first two rounds are likely to have been completed, so let's focus on some possible edges in the final four rounds of the "Big Dance."

As always, the "biggest edge of all" is a complete fundamental analysis of the player and coaching matchups in the remaining games. Size, quickness, depth, defense (I like that one), shooting ability, court awareness and shot selection (I like those, too), poise, experience, and team chemistry all become extremely important. If a team is lacking in any of those areas, a high-quality opponent is likely to expose them. If that opponent can exploit the weakness repeatedly, it has an excellent chance to cover that night.

And don't be misled by one team's result vs. a previous opponent. In the next round of the tournament, the matchups, style, and coaching could be quite different.

With the exact matchups unknown to us as this is written, I want to focus on a factor in the NCAA tourney that is interesting as the pressure increases on the players when the games wind down to a precious few. That factor is the over/under situation in the final four rounds of the NCAA tourney.

It is part of my general belief regarding tournaments that as the pressure goes up, the scoring goes down. There are many valid reasons for this.

Some tourney players, many of whom are mostly still "kids" and are in new situations and under the national TV spotlight, tend to "freeze up" at times, departing from their normal, more free-flowing, instinctive performances of the regular season. And many other players who don't freeze tend to go "hully-gully," departing from the team offense and throwing up forced, low-percentage shots that drive their coaches (and supporters in Vegas) crazy.

Tourney coaches, with their substantial egos (not to mention the bonus clauses in their contracts), tend to "grip" too tightly. Many have a tendency to "overmanage" games. And, as their tension increases, it takes a rare breed of coach to keep that anxiety from flowing to the players. The result is often fewer shots per game than normal, and more effort devoted on most possessions before a shot is even attempted.

Tourney referees, as the importance of the games increases, tend to give a little more leeway to the players. The good refs try not to be the determining factor in important games. There is a tendency to allow more "incidental" contact than to call a foul, as they might have done in a regular-season game. The result is often tighter defense in big games, a little more contact allowed, and sometimes fewer fouls called, resulting in fewer than a normal number of attempts from the free-throw line.

What has been described in the three previous paragraphs is a recipe that favors the "under" more than it does the "over" in pressure-packed NCAA tourney games. Most oddsmakers and handicappers know this.

But there is another refinement that could give the astute handicapper the edge. Extra rest and extra preparation time appear to be bigger advantages for the defense than for the offense.

In rounds No. 3 and No. 5 of the NCAA tournament (the "Sweet Sixteen" and the national title semifinals), the "unders" have had a definite edge the past three years, going 18-12 (60 percent) vs. the spread. And, except for a rather aberrational 6-2 "over" mark in the 2000 Sweet Sixteen (the only time in three years that the "overs" were above .500 in the third or fifth rounds), that 18-12 mark might be even better.

The key appears to be the four or five days of preparation time that teams have for opponents in the Sweet Sixteen and NCAA semifinals vs. the single day of prep time for the ensuing games in the "Elite Eight" and finals, respectively.

Coaches will tell you that it is easier to focus and prepare their defense for a particular opponent, if they have lots of time, than it is to customize and elevate their offense for a particular opponent. At this late stage of the season, a team's offense is what it is. Extra time for coaches to break down film on each foe – deciding the best defensive matchups, and preparing presses and "change-up" defenses to confuse opponents – can by very beneficial. It's somewhat akin to football teams in the bowl season having several weeks to gear up to stop what the opposing offense does best, hoping to force its foe to adapt during the heat of battle and play "lefthanded," if you will, in the bowl game. (That's why one-dimensional offensive teams often have trouble in bowl games, but that's not our primary focus right now.)

What's the bottom line? As the NCAA tourney games dwindle down to a precious few, you might consider making the growing pressure and tension work for you by looking at the "under," especially in the Sweet Sixteen and NCAA semis, when the rival coaches have several days to study every opposing player and prepare their defenses for a focused effort.

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