Pocket Queens in No-Limit Hold'em

While playing in a no-limit hold'em tournament at the Tropicana in Atlantic City, you have wisely avoided several recent death traps and now find yourself playing heads up for first and second. The blinds are $1,000-$2,000, and you pick up beautiful pocket queens in the big blind.

You have about $35,000 in chips, and your opponent, who has just eliminated two players in successive hands, has about $45,000. Seemingly having "momentum" going for him, your opponent makes it $4,000 to go. What should you do – and why?

The short answer is that it depends mostly upon whom you are playing against. In this case, your opponent is a crafty old player who you happen to know is also a gin rummy expert and often plays for big money. He plays hold'em generally tight, but once involved in a hand, he often loosens up and gets aggressive. So, how much should you raise, or should you just call?

First, here's the math of the situation. Against a random hand, pocket queens wins about 80 percent of the time. But, since your opponent raised before the flop, he is more likely to have an ace or a king. Against an ace or a king (and a random card), pocket queens wins about two-thirds of the time if the hand is played to a showdown.

What if your opponent happened to have pocket aces or kings? At this stage of the tournament, very simply, you would be doomed – unlucky – next subject. If your opponent has A-K, he is merely on the short end of a coin toss with you. With all other hands, your pocket queens are an impressive favorite.

What are the chances of pocket queens being "ahead" after the flop? Mike Caro's Table of Misery (in our about-to-be-released new book, Poker at the Millennium [Hold'em and Omaha]) indicates that the likelihood of getting a "miserable" flop that has an overcard (an ace or a king) and no queen is 37.8 percent. But even if your opponent has an ace or a king, he will pair the ace or king in the flop less than half of that time.

If your opponent has an ace or a king and pairs it on the flop (and there is no queen), you are in big trouble. But that will happen less than one time in six. That is a very acceptable risk when compared to the risk of getting unlucky with some future hand in which your chances might be considerably less.

The bottom line here is that hands as good as pocket queens don't grow on trees (only pocket aces or kings are better). When playing heads up in a no-limit hold'em tournament, where any hand could be the last, you crave having a high pocket pair.

Whereas you are often content to take a small profit and go on to the next hand, you are not likely to have a better opportunity than this to make a big score! You are not likely to pick up a better starting hand, and now you are acting after he has come at you. It doesn't get much better than that. So, it is probably wise to try to make hay while the sun shines. But, how do you best do that? If you push your stack at him, most of the time he will fold. Even if you raise half of your stack ($17,000), he will probably fold most of the time. In view of the fact that you started the hand with about $10,000 less than he had, would you be content to get merely $4,000 out of this situation? No!

In the actual hand, I raised $5,000. He looked at his hand carefully, thought for a moment, and folded. I expected him to call on momentum, wanting to see the flop. In retrospect, I misjudged the situation.

Looking at this situation from my opponent's perspective, if he had a pocket pair or a "big ace" (an ace with a big kicker), or even a "tactical" raising hand (for example, 9-8 suited), he might well call a raise of $5,000 to see the flop. But if he was merely "steaming" on momentum, he might decide to fold to a raise. Since that was certainly a likely possibility, I should have merely called instead of making the "small" raise – since he probably would have bet after the flop (with $4,000 or more).

When you are holding the hand that you would like to win the tournament for you, the rule in this type of situation is, if your opponent folds and escapes, you made the wrong bet. Some experts might say that you can't afford to let your opponent outdraw you by giving him a free card(s). My thinking is that although you might get unlucky by letting him in cheaply ("tempting the fates") and end up losing the hand, your chances of winning this hand are probably better than your chances of winning the next major confrontation.

When you pick up a big pocket pair in these often chaotic final hands (when the antes are escalating and you are forced to make moves and play medium-strength hands), you must try to make the most of a truly advantageous starting hand. If you lose, you are simply unlucky.

So, rather than make a small raise and tip off the strength of my hand, I think that I should have simply called and then checked after the flop. He probably would have bet the flop. While it is quite true that I might manage to lose this pot by not raising, all in all, the risk of my getting unlucky and losing is well offset by the chance of making a much bigger score.