Reread Your Read Until You Believe What You've Read

I was chatting with a friend of mine recently at Commerce Casino, where he plays in the pot-limit hold'em game. I consider him a very good player in that game, and he will admit that it is his best game. We were talking about how he'd been running, and he brought up a hand that he lost and asked my opinion as to how he played it at the end. I say at the end because based on his explanation, he played it perfectly up to the river. Here's a quick rundown to illustrate the point:

The blinds were $10-$20 and a well-known pot-limit hold'em player was under the gun and limped in, which was not unusual for him. Our hero, I'll call him Steven, was holding A-Q suited and raised the pot. Everyone folded but the limper and one other player. The flop came Q-Q-6 rainbow, which was huge for Steven. The limper quickly checked and Steven checked. Steven explained that he had set this player up many times before and was almost positive that he would get a bet out of him on the turn. The turn was another 6. This was even a better bluff card for the limper, as he had first action, and as long as his opponent wasn't holding a queen, he would almost assuredly win the pot right there. The limper checked. Steven's antenna went up immediately, and he said to himself, "I'm up against four sixes." Steven also checked. On the river, a rag lower than a 6 came, and the limper bet the pot, $1,000. The other player folded and Steven thought about it for three minutes. Finally, he said, "Sir, I know you have four sixes, but I have to pay you off." Steven put in the thousand only to find that he was right about the four sixes.

Now, this is in no way a bad-beat story, but it does illustrate a point. Steven made the absolute correct read and still called the bet. I asked him how he felt. "I felt like I used my poker skills to the utmost, and was totally disappointed that I didn't believe my read." I agreed. I asked him how much he had invested. "About $300." So, why, I asked, after having invested only $300, did he call another $1,000, knowing that his opponent had four sixes? "I guess I just couldn't lay it down," he said.

I figured that it was important to provide a few different scenarios to make a point to him. My first was this: "If you had to call $3,000 on the end, would you have done so?" He said that that would have been a tougher decision. "Why?" I asked. "If you had to call $3,000, wouldn't your investment preflop be about three times what you had invested in the original hand?" He said that made sense. "If that were the case," I said, "from a percentage point of view, the $3,000 would have been the same call as the $1,000. So, now you would have called a $3,000 bet, too." He said that all things being equal, the answer was yes.

"Let's try a different scenario," I said. "If the river card was an ace, and since you had ace-queen suited, what would you have done then?" He said that he certainly wouldn't have raised, but that his call would have been made with a lot less thought. "Why?" I asked. He said that in the real scenario, he had the nut full house with only one of his cards, and if his opponent didn't have four sixes and had only a queen, it would have been a chop. In the river ace scenario, he would have had the second-nut full house. I asked, "Well, couldn't he have had pocket aces? After all, he did limp in under the gun, checked when two queens hit the board, and checked again when the board-double paired. He easily could have had aces in that spot."

"Not this player," Steven said. "With aces, he would have made a stab to isolate preflop or at least take a shot to find out where he was at on the flop or the turn." (That in itself is a good read on a player.)

"So, he doesn't have pocket aces and your read is pocket sixes," I said. "So, once again, when the ace hit, you'd think about it and flat call even though you'd greatly improved your hand but still believed you were beat."

In all of these scenarios, Steven made a read, the correct read, and yet with every circumstance that I tried to change, he threw in the river call. The reason I changed the circumstances of the game is to illustrate that his read never changed. Steven had his opponent on four sixes in every case and every scenario, and in every case, he put in money when he believed he was beat.

Steven told me that particular hand taught him a great lesson, and from now on, he's going to believe in his read and act accordingly. Of course, time will tell, because even though I played the devil's advocate with him, I agree that it would have been a very tough laydown.

All of this brings up a great lesson for those of us who are not as experienced as Steve. Most players make mistakes, and pros and great players take advantage of these mistakes. Let's look at what, in my opinion, is one of the biggest mistakes made by players. You're playing hold'em and have raised from middle position with 9-9. An opponent, who you have noticed puts great value in A-K, raises and makes it three bets. You immediately put him on A-K (this is your read) and call his raise. The flop comes K 8 3, clearly a bad flop for you because your read of A-K gives him kings, which beats 9-9. But wait, maybe he has A-Q and missed the flop altogether. If he has A-Q, the board is favorable for your 9-9. This change of a "read" is what many players do to try to find a way to justify playing a hand further. This mistake, in the long run, will cost you dearly. If you miss the flop and your original read tells you that you are beat, let it go.

Now, let's change the flop to Q 8 3. You're first to act and you bet, and the player you have read to have A-K raises. Is he raising to make you think he has a queen to win it right here, or to get a free turn and river card with two overcards? Stick with your original read and three-bet. I'm not trying to direct strategic play here, but I am trying to get you to believe in your read.

How often have you made a bet from early position after the flop when two of one suit hits the board and a person near the button raises? Your read is that he has a flush draw, and is raising in order to get to see the turn and river card without having to call a bet from you. This is a very usual hold'em strategy. If you believe in your read and an off-suit card hits the turn that doesn't hurt your hand, bet in order to prevent him from getting a free card. More often than not, that player will just call, or might even fold. Once again, believe in your read.

There are many things that contribute to making a novice player one who has a chance to be a regular winner in the game of poker. Making a good read of someone is one of the most important. But, more important than just making that read is following through with it by playing your hand accordingly.