Subtleties of Baseball Scheduling

We're in the midst of the baseball season, and it's a good time to be aware of certain idiosyncrasies in scheduling that can lend themselves to successful plays in sports betting.

One of the factors to be aware of is that most teams usually have a better chance of winning when their No. 1 or No. 2 starter is pitching. And that's not just because those two are usually the best pitchers on the staff.

It's also because managers are most likely to use their "A" lineup to support them. Also, because a top pitcher is on the mound, most everyday players tend to get a little more pumped up for the game. They know they have a better chance of winning that game because of the anticipated quality pitching.

More and more these days, there has been a pecking order established among pitching staffs – typically, No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 starters, spot starter/long reliever, long reliever, specialist bullpen left-hander, setup man, and closer. Obviously, some juggling and turnover occurs during the season due to injuries, overachieving or underachieving performances, and the development of new players who work their way into the pecking order.

But it's still generally the case that when the No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher is starting, he's going to be supported by either the best hitting lineup or the best fielding lineup, or the best combo of the two. The management of a team expects to win a high percentage of the starts of its top pitchers, and it usually pays handsomely in salary based on that expectation.

Generally speaking, the deeper into the rotation a team goes, the lower its expectation of winning. Therefore, team managers are more likely to experiment or take chances with their lineups when a second-echelon pitcher is starting. And it's usually the case on most teams that the veteran, everyday players are well aware of this fact.

Baseball teams (especially the contenders) give lip service to the old managerial adage that "you do everything you can to win today's game and then worry about the next game tomorrow."

Of course, this is not always true. When a No. 4, No. 5, or No. 6 starter is going for a team, a manager is more likely to rest a key everyday player who might have been playing with a minor injury in recent games. A backup is more likely to get a chance to start. Maybe a youngster will get a chance. Or, the manager might experiment with his batting order that day. But usually, out of respect for the No. 1 and No. 2 starters (sometimes No. 3 and No. 4 on deep, quality staffs), the manager will come forth with his best lineup.

There is another factor that frequently enters the equation, and that is day games, especially a day game following a night game. This is a situation when a manager will often try to give his older everyday players a little rest; when there's a greater chance that a manager will go with his "B" lineup, with a backup or two given a chance to start.

And don't be fooled by any old adages here. When star players are rested in favor of backups, the "message" is sent to the entire team. It's true that the backups are eager to excel in order to make the most out of a rare starting opportunity, but the other everyday players know they'll have to try to win that game without some of their best players in their regular roles. It's just natural for "the old hands" to let down a little bit, or, even if they don't actually let down, to start the game with a little less "edge" than otherwise. There's a greater chance that they'll be a little less alert and will just "go through the motions" at times.

This phenomenon helps explain a "beneficial" tendency in totals betting for handicappers that has appeared again early in the 2002 baseball season. Through the first five weeks of the season, the difference between the number of "overs" vs. the "unders" in night games was a nominal +3 favoring the "overs." But in day games, there were 23 more "unders" than there were "overs." That difference is even more dramatic considering there are substantially more night games than day games these days.

Another factor influencing this difference is the fact that many day games occur on "getaway" days for major league teams – the day they're due to travel to another city. Thus, you have the distraction of packing, saying goodbye to family and friends (if a team is hitting the road), or checking out of hotels with all of your gear for your next stop (if a team is headed home or to another city). Either way, most players greatly appreciate a fast-paced game on getaway days. Pitchers who throw lots of strikes on such days are greatly admired by their teammates.

One exception to the tendencies noted above involves contending teams. Unless those teams have lots of quality depth (and many do), managers will do less experimenting and substituting, even on getaway days. It should also be noted that most starting pitchers of visiting teams travel to the next city one day ahead of the rest of the team, in order to make sure they get proper sleep before their start and are not involved in any unforeseen travel hassles.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in handicapping for 46 years. The Gold Sheet NBA playoff issue is now on most newsstands. It offers key statistics, analysis, insider reports, and its widely followed power ratings. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to receive a complimentary sample copy with no obligation, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say that you read about it in Card Player. You can look The Gold Sheet up on the web at www.goldsheet.com.