Grading the AFC Coaches

Knowing the defining traits of the various coaches and managers is an essential part of sports handicapping. Those traits don't exhibit themselves in every game, as the oddsmaker can pretty much neutralize an obvious advantage. But over the course of the season, and in the big games, the relative strengths of the coaches usually show through. And it's no coincidence that the team with the better coach in the Super Bowl inevitably tends to prevail.

Last year we got a good response when we ranked the NFL coaches. Here's a look at the AFC coaches for this year.

Mike Shanahan, Denver – A: He cruised to two Super Bowl wins at the end of the John Elway era, removing the "loser" label from both the QB and the franchise. He believes that he should have won three. He might have upset the eventual champion Ravens in the playoffs last season if he had had a healthy QB in Brian Griese, a healthy RB in Terrell Davis, and favorable weather. He's as smart as they come, and exceedingly demanding.

Dick Vermeil, Kansas City – A-: He's thorough, and a master of getting his players to overachieve, but sometimes he sticks with them too long (QB Tony Banks). Remember, Vermeil's Rams didn't win the Super Bowl until offensive mastermind Mike Martz showed up and Trent Green's knee injury forced backup Kurt Warner into the lineup.

Brian Billick, Baltimore – A-: Winning the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at QB should say enough. And keep in mind that Billick previously lost his best big-play WR (Travis Taylor) in midseason and that his top RB was a rookie (Jamal Lewis). These three were not exactly Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, and Roger Craig in their prime. There was plenty of coaching going on. He's smart, and glib (perhaps too glib?). He'll lose the "minus" from his rating with another Super Bowl win.

Mike Holmgren, Seattle – A-: He's a perfectionist who is as smart as they come on the sidelines – as a coach, that is. He might have bitten off more than he can chew in demanding (and getting) G.M. duties as well when moving to Seattle from Green Bay. The distractions of the front office appear to be affecting his on-field decisions, such as trying to develop the marginally talented Jon Kitna into "Brett Favre Jr." and overrating his defense.

Jeff Fisher, Tennessee – B+: He's a well-rounded former Buddy Ryan protege who hasn't yet "kicked in the door" to the "A" level. He's always kept his team upbeat and on track despite relocation problems and a string of injuries that has limited his offense. He's 32-13-1 as an underdog since taking over Houston/Tennessee in 1995!

Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville – B+: He's a stubborn Bill Parcells disciple who's a little more offense-oriented. Major injuries have destroyed his plans the last two years. His front-office moves have killed his flexibility and have backed the Jags up against the salary cap; he must now do some substantial reconstruction.

Jon Gruden, Oakland – B+: He stood up to Al Davis, cleared out the dead wood, and successfully retooled the Raider offense. He made Rich Gannon look like a star. He's still trying to upgrade Davis' overrated talent.

Mike Riley, San Diego – B: Players love him, and fight hard for him, but he's been hamstrung by terrible decisions of the front office in his first two years. He revived the sorry program at Oregon State, sowing the seeds that eventually led to the Beavers' embarrassment of shocked Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl (with an undersized QB, by the way).

Dave Wannstedt, Miami – B: He was a lineman for Tony Dorsett at Pitt, and is a great friend and protege of Jimmy Johnson. He's much improved since his days with the Bears. He's very driven, but still lacks the special insight that "A" coaches have.

Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh – B: He has lost some of his coaching luster in recent years due to bickering with the front office, questionable decisions with his offense (changing coordinators, styles), and tying his fortunes to those of the "delicate" Kordell Stewart. He might need a change of scenery.

Butch Davis, Cleveland – B: We'll give him this high grade for (1) the thorough rebuilding job that he did in college at Miami, and (2) his previous success on Jimmy Johnson's staff in Dallas. He gets his players to listen and then hammers on the basics – successfully.

Jim Mora, Indianapolis – B-: He can't seem to get over the hump in big games since his USFL days, despite often having substantial talent on hand. He lacks the incisiveness and inspiration of the Shanahans, Vermeils, and Billicks of the world.

Bill Belichick, New England – B-: He's a Bill Parcells-type disciplinarian who lacks Parcells' ability to motivate players. He's now a less than mediocre 42-56 in six years at Cleveland and Foxboro. It usually doesn't take too long for players to "tune him out." He can't seem to keep his teams' problems solved. The Pats failed to cover in all five games when favored last year.

Gregg Williams, Buffalo – B-: He's a recent defensive coordinator of the Titans, and a former college QB at SE Missouri State. He's already ahead of his Bills' predecessor Wade Phillips in terms of insight and decisiveness (by ending the QB controversy and jettisoning slow, overweight linemen). During Williams' interview process, Buffalo management was bowled over by his preparation and attention to detail. We'll see how his players respond.

Dick LeBeau, Cincinnati – C+: He went 4-9 straight up and 7-6 vs. the spread after moving up from defensive coordinator in October of last year to take over for the seemingly always mystified Bruce Coslet. Most of LeBeau's players argued in favor of his return. He made a few positive strides last year, but was limited by a penurious front office that will make it difficult for the Bengals to contend seriously.

Herman Edwards, New York Jets – Incomplete: He's a former Philly DB and recent assistant head coach under Tony Dungy at Tampa Bay. He has never been a head coach, thus is very unproven. He's taking over a veteran team in the high-profile media capital of New York. He says the right things, but is he ready? Or, will he be learning on the fly? We think the latter. Next issue, we'll rate the NFC coaches.

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