The Character of a Hand

I have started working on a book about limit hold'em. My co-author in this work is Jim Brier, who has been my poker student and now is a Card Player columnist and a Vegas-based professional player. Much of the book will use example hands, most of which are Jim's, taken from actual play, that we have discussed at some time. There will also be a lot of material discussing facets of the game that we consider important. What follows in the remainder of this column is an excerpt taken from the book that talks about a hand's basic character, a big factor in how it is played.

The value of a starting hand varies widely with the number of opponents. The typical graph for a hand of intermediate strength is that of a "U" shape. It is most valuable heads up, tapers off for a while as the number of opponents increases, and then goes back up again when a majority of the field is involved.

If we use a pocket pair of eights as an example of an intermediate-strength hand, the reason for this pattern is easy to understand. Against one opponent, the hand is normally a favorite to win unimproved. Assuming that 8-8 has started out as the highest-ranking hand, it figures to stay there against only one player. But every time an additional opponent is added, the chance of this hand standing up without improvement is sharply reduced. When the point is reached where the hand almost surely will need the help of an 8 on the board to win the pot, the philosophy on the number of opponents changes to "the more, the merrier."

When improvement by way of a third 8 is required for pocket eights, it nearly always has to come on the flop. The chance of making trips on the turn is 22.5-to-1 against, so if the flop is bet, and you believe you are beat, the odds are hardly ever there to continue in the pot. Since the odds on flopping a set are just over 7-to-1 against, it is evident that both an exceptionally large field and a low entry price are desirable, once it is determined from the number of players that the hand will need to improve.

A hand with an ace also has a chance to win without improvement. As is the case with a pair, this is much easier to accomplish against only one opponent. However, the prospect of improving during the course of the hand is better for an ace than a pair. The chance of improving on the flop to a pair or better is about one out of three. The chance of improving at any point in the hand (seeing all five boardcards) is about even money.

We can conclude that a hand with an ace or a pair, isolating on one opponent, is normally quite desirable. The exception is when the opponent has shown sufficient strength preflop to make the heads-up match dubious because there is a strong fear of facing a superior hand, making you the person needing to improve.

The converse of the strategy for aces and pairs applies to the underdog hand. A multihanded pot should be sought when improvement is needed. Hands like K Q or J 10 are worth playing in most unraised pots, but should seek to get in cheaply and play a multihanded pot rather than isolating on one opponent.

On rare occasions, a king-high holding can be played for the best hand – for example, when only the blinds are contending the pot or the only other entry is a person who seldom folds preflop. This means that one cannot be completely rigid in defining how each hand should be played. We shouldn't simply say that a hand with an ace or a pair can be played for the best hand, and that you cannot do it with any other hand. But the lower you go in a hand's showdown value, the more you must consider a method of playing it that takes this into consideration.

Here is a type of scene that commonly occurs: A weak player limps into the pot from early position. An aggressive player on the button picks up a hand like the Q J in late position, and sees this weak player as a target, one that he might be able to have all to himself if he raises the pot. A lion has come across a crippled zebra. Accordingly, he pops it up with the intention of isolating on the player. Is this type of raise a device that you should use regularly?

Something that can happen afterward is, one of the players in the blind can become an unwelcome intruder. That person may pick up a whopper of a hand. Or, perhaps he might simply have a decent holding and view you as a target, because he realizes that you may be making this raise with a light hand. Accordingly, you get three-bet. How do you like this development? Whether the limper calls the double raise or folds, you have to feel sorry that you raised. You may call the raise with an air of confidence, but that would, of course, be a facade.

Perhaps you think that a possible reraise is just "one of the risks of conducting business," and you cannot let it deter you from making your play. But there may be another reason not to try to isolate on this player. A "weak player" can be what he is for a variety of reasons, but the usual ones are playing too many hands and sticking around too long. He is a weak player because he does not like to employ the fold. So, when you have a hand that is a 2-to-1 dog to improve, and probably needs to improve to win, being up against a calling station should not be looked upon as a favorable gambling opportunity. It would be better to be up against a player who can throw away his hand (and thinks you play like the Rock of Gibraltar) than up against a calling station when you make a raise when heads up with this type of holding – if you insist on raising at all. So, when you point a gun, you must give some thought to not only whom you point it at, but whether you have a .45 or a water pistol in your hand.

Editor's note: Bob Ciaffone is available for poker lessons. He may be reached at (989) 792-0884, or by E-mail at [email protected]. His website is www.diamondcs.net/~thecoach. His books Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Hold'em Poker, Millennium Edition are available through Card Player.