Decline of Starting Pitching in the Equation

I am surprised that, in today's game, so many baseball handicappers still place such a great emphasis on the starting pitcher. Yes, it's true that the starting pitcher should be a prime consideration before wagering on a baseball game. But, this is something the oddsmakers know when setting the daily line, and they're eager to take full advantage of handicappers who overemphasize starting pitching versus "the overall."

Oddsmakers know the "public" prefers to bet on the team with the perceived superior starting pitcher, especially when that pitcher is starting at home. And, admittedly, there are several starters each year in each league who merit strong support. For example, the Giants were 14-1 in Jason Schmidt's home starts last year and 12-3 in Kirk Rueter's. The A's were 17-3 behind Tim Hudson at home; the Mariners were 14-2 behind Jamie Moyer. The Cardinals were 15-3 at home with Woody Williams starting; the Braves went 16-4 with Russ Ortiz; the Rockies were 10-1 with Jason Jennings!

But there are plenty of examples on the negative side. Arizona was only 5-5 when Randy Johnson started at home, and 5-7 behind Curt Schilling. Combine their 2003 injuries with the Diamondbacks' spotty offense and erratic bullpen, and those two turned out to be real money-burners in supposed high-percentage spots. Some others include Boston's Tim Wakefield, 6-10 at home; Seattle's former ERA champ Freddy Garcia, only 7-9; and the Mets' Tom Glavine, 4-13!

The point is this: Many of today's games are played in relative "bandboxes," with superhard bats, by players who train all year, some of whom risk their future health by using highly questionable substances in their bodies. Instead of tens of thousands, players are often paid in the millions of dollars. Managers make decisions by formula when they have the lead, not by instinct or common sense. They remove starters who are in a groove in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning in favor of a "setup" man, and then a designated closer. If either one of those two blows the lead, it's his fault, not the manager's. So, the manager is off the hook. Middle infielders and utility players swing for the fences because they want some of the big bucks. Power hitters drive balls ten rows deep on pitches near their fists that break their bats. Teams don't steal or sacrifice as much anymore, because they don't want to give up a valuable out when so many of their players can hit it over the wall. In such circumstances, you had better give greater emphasis to the overall, and a little less to the starting pitching.

By "the overall" I mean a team's hitting, defense, speed, bullpen depth and health, and closer. In fact, before laying any substantial "price" with a favorite, I always check to be sure that a team's closer isn't "cooked" by having pitched two or three days in a row or by having thrown an inordinate number of pitches the day before. Good offensive teams with good defense win plenty of games these days as underdogs against marginal starting pitchers, of which there are many in the new millennium.

In times not so long ago – in the days of Koufax, Drysdale, and Marichal, and a little later of Gibson, Carlton, and Seaver – pitchers used to start every fourth day and often accumulate 300 innings in a season. They were insulted if managers removed them for a pinch hitter or reliever when they had a lead. In those days, the quality of the starting pitcher and his career record against an opponent meant more in the handicapping equation. For a couple of seasons, the Phillies could hardly win a game except when Carlton pitched.

But those days are mostly over. These are the days of pitch counts, radar guns, four and five days of rest, and ballparks (not to mention players) built for scoring. I won't say that pitchers these days are relative wimps, but others will. I'll just say that's the way it is. How many times, just last year, did big leads (and big prices) go down the drain when Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, or Curt Schilling departed games while ahead?

More than ever these days, you can wager on a team just for its offense or just for the price.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the 2004 Gold Sheet Football Preview in June at your local newsstand. If you'd like to reserve a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.