Carlos Takes the Pot Odds

OK, I admit it, I skipped the $10,000 buy-in World Poker Tour no-limit hold'em tournament at Bellagio, and a slot on Primetime Live (the ABC TV program), to attend, of all things, a baseball game. Now, bear in mind that my brand-new book Bad Beats and Lucky Draws and my new DVD Phil Hellmuth's Million Dollar Poker System had just been released in retail outlets. My wife thought I was being a bit self-destructive by missing the tournament and the TV appearance, but what the heck, man, couldn't it just have been a guy wanting to catch a Yankees-Red Sox American League Championship Series game at old Fenway Park?

After watching a 14-inning classic while rooting the Red Sox home (I wasn't rooting against the Yankees, but was just rooting for the Sox) to victory, I had no regrets. I went with my heart this time, not with my head. In any case, I had to go to Bellagio for business reasons the very next day, where I witnessed the following big hand come up between Carlos Mortensen, John Juanda, and another fellow (Player B) I didn't know.

With 19 players left in the tournament, the antes were $1,000 a player and the blinds were $4,000-$8,000. Carlos opened from the button for $25,000 with the K Q, Player B moved all in for $174,000 from the small blind with the 6 6, and John Juanda then moved all in from the big blind for $154,000 total with the Q Q. With the action now back on Carlos, he went into the tank for a while while counting out the $149,000 in chips that it would take to call. Carlos figured out that he would have $390,000 left if he called the bet and lost the pot. Finally, he pushed in the $149,000 chip stack and called.

With everyone in a potential cutoff position (again, 19 players remained) from a redraw to two tables and 18 players – and thus more prize money – the excitement was palatable. The flop came down J-2-2, followed by a 3, then an ace. Normally, an ace on the river in a big three-way hand like this one would cause a lot of commotion. But in this case, Juanda won the pot with his Q-Q.

Juanda then stacked the huge main pot as Player B stacked a small side pot with his pair of sixes. Annie Duke, having arrived late on the scene, asked, "How in the world did they get all of that money in before the flop?" I told her the particulars of the hand, and then she said, "I don't like Carlos' call, do you? Judging by the action, he was probably dominated." By "dominated," Annie means that Carlos was probably looking at one opponent with A-K, A-Q, Q-Q, K-K, or A-A, whereby he would be at least a 2.5-to-1 underdog.

While Annie's point is excellent, so was Carlos' point when he asked me about the hand at the 10-minute break. With $359,000 ($6,000 + $25,000 + $174,000 + $154,000) in the pot and Carlos having to call only $149,000 more, the pot was laying him 2.4-to-1. If he was looking at A-K, Q-Q, or A-Q, he would be only a 2.5-to-1 underdog, and based on that assessment, his call was OK.

Carlos said, "Phil, I was getting laid 2.4-to-1 in a spot where I thought they both had a pair. If Juanda had J-J and Player B had 9-9, I'd be in great shape, and the call would be an easy one to make." Based on Carlos' assessment, and Carlos was the one doing the "reading" of the other players, his call was a good one.

I like Carlos' call here because he raises lots of pots (effectively stealing lots of blinds and antes), and if you raise lots of pots, people will start to reraise you a lot (they get sick of you stealing all of their blinds and antes). Thus, it is good for someone who raises lots of pots to show his opponents that he will call them down with a hand like K-Q sometimes. This way, he's saying, "Yes, I'm stealing lots of blinds and antes, but if you play back at me, I'll probably call you down anyway, even if I'm somewhat weak."

I believe that by calling this bet, Carlos was putting the fear of God into the other players' minds. They would start to think, "Carlos is reckless and dangerous; I had better let him continue to steal the blinds and antes and wait until I have a real hand before I reraise him." And what do you think happened over the next six hands? Carlos raised five of them, and won them all uncontested before the flop, increasing his stack by $72,000 in the process.

So, the answer is this: If you're an aggressive player, the call is more right, but if you're a passive player, the call is more wrong (if you're passive, your opponents will give you credit for a hand when you raise, thus they will usually have a real hand when they reraise you).

By the way, congratulations to Carlos for winning this WPT championship. This makes Doyle Brunson, followed by Daniel Negreanu, followed by Carlos Mortensen our last three WPT winners in the United States. Now who questions the skill required to win a poker tournament?

Chat or play poker with Phil at UltimateBet.com. To learn more about him, or his books and DVDs, go to PhilHellmuth.com; for Phil's cellphone game, check out HellmuthHoldem.com.