Betting on the End With A-K and No Help

As an observant student of the game, you likely see one of the two following last-round betting situations happen very frequently:

1. A player dealt A-K who raised preflop and has bet out on the flop and on the turn now finds himself heads up and checks the river.

2. The same as No. 1, but he bets on the river.

I consider the decision of whether to bet on the end with a hand that failed to improve one of the toughest, and one that you will face over and over again.

A Real-Game Example

Recently, the situation came up in which I held A-K, raised from early position, and ended up against one lone opponent. This opponent was fairly aggressive and seemed capable of making laydowns, but also liked to chase and play some very questionable hands. The flop came Q 7 3 and I checked with the intention of check-raising to represent an overpair or a big queen. As I figured he would, he bet.

With such a scattered flop, I thought his bet represented either a legitimate pair or an attempt to force me off a vulnerable hand (pocket nines or A-K, for example). Seizing control of the hand by check-raising, I sensed his confidence wane. The turn was a rag, the 4 (although it did create a possible flush draw), and I fired without hesitation. He called quickly. Now I was worried he held a queen, and I believed he was definitely prepared to call me down unless an overcard showed up. I hated the jack on the river. No flushes or straights were possible, but making a bet now was a real dilemma.

The fact that I had raised preflop did not mean much in defining this player's hand. He could have held Q-J, A-7, or even A-J. And believe me, I've even seen decent players make a call on the turn with no pair, no draw, and only a marginal ace – and it has baffled me! I decided to check, even though I thought the chance my hand was good was about 10 percent. But the probability of him mucking seemed about the same, and saving the big bet on the end appeared to be my best option. He checked behind me, shaking his head as if he had nothing. I announced ace high and he perked up. He took the pot down with his pair of threes, showing A-3 offsuit.

Naturally, it's a bit annoying when a hand I hold dominates a lone opponent and he hits his three-outer for the win. The question is, should I have bet on the end?

Did I have him set up to muck to a bit more pressure? When he called on the turn with such a disjointed board after I had check-raised his flop bet, I had to give him credit for a stronger hand than just threes. He didn't strike me as being so skilled that he could read through my aggression and put me on A-K. By the same token, when players raise preflop at the middle limits, it seems almost a natural reaction for opponents to assume the raise means A-K, possibly justifying their cold calls with garbage hands under the guise that should an ace or king flop, they can bail easily.

Therefore, all assessment defaulted to my image at the moment in question. How did he perceive me? Even though I had been playing tight, aggressive poker, I was not winning, and it's amazing how much that makes players not fear you! For me, this was not a decision based on pot odds. It was my conclusion that saving the bet was best, since I really couldn't put him on as weak a hand as what he eventually revealed. Certainly, if I had known he had only threes, I would have bet.

Factors to Consider if Facing a Similar Situation

1. How deep a read can your opponent make on you? Is this a player who really tries to figure out what your actions mean, or just someone focused on his own hand? The less a player considers what his opponent holds, the more I would recommend checking the river in a situation such as this.

2. Are you feared and/or respected by your opponent? If yes, tend toward betting on the end with an air of clear confidence. As I mentioned, the fact that I had been playing solid poker but was losing meant I was not seen by this player as a threat. Looking back, I think he would have pondered the call on the end. It would not have been an automatic muck.

3. You might try beginning the physical motion of betting while watching your opponent's knee-jerk reaction. This is very different from an opponent yet to act after you making like he's getting ready to bet to induce a check. Some players will see through this, but I have saved many a bet by "probing" with a fake and then checking if it appears that my opponent is willing to call.

4. Pause before acting. The pause will often be interpreted as a legitimate consideration, as though you hold a good hand but are wondering if the river card just killed you. This may give you the credibility to evoke a laydown of a better (but very weak) hand. As well, pausing gives your opponent a chance to reveal his intentions.

Conclusions

Heads-up play is really all about the opponent. That should be obvious by now. Your focus throughout the entire hand should be on your opponent's actions, reactions, and possible holdings. If you can't play this way, you may find the rise to poker greatness somewhat limited. If you can and do play with this level of awareness, well done. You're definitely on your way to poker greatness. Stick with it.

My experience has shown that most fair to OK players (meaning they likely don't show much of a long-term profit nor much of a loss) are most in tune to other players who are upset from taking a beat, are playing too recklessly, are on some noticeable rush, or are complete novices at the game. In other words, the most obvious "images" are noted.

The good and great players see more subtleties in the image of their opponents. For example, they sense impatience due to a cold spell, a quiet, brewing frustration at having good starting hands cracked (which is not visible in their opponents' actions but can certainly be felt), a tendency to overplay hands that fail to develop due to pride, and so on.

What you need to develop is a sense of how detailed a read your opponent is capable of making on you, and then determine what that read is. Almost as a reflex, players at the middle limits will tend to put raisers on A-K probably as a justification for cold-calling a preflop raise with a questionable hand. They figure that if an ace or king flops, they can ditch the hand easily. Otherwise, they will keep calling.

If your image is bad at the point of decision because you are perceived as steaming or overplaying for whatever reason, I suggest being very cautious about betting the river with your ace-high hand. You will likely get called down with any pair or even check-raised by a skilled player who may be totally bluffing. The better you have developed your image throughout the session, the better your chances are that average and worse players will release poor hands (but better than yours) to a river bet.

As such, and as it goes in most pathways to lasting success, laying a good foundation will enable you much greater flexibility down the line. If you are skilled at fostering an image from the very first hand, you are buying future equity, since your opponents will be more easily manipulated by your actions. In clearer terms, if I know what you think of me, you become more predictable and thus more easily fooled.