Avoiding Predictability

"Imagination allows us to escape the predictable." – Bill Bradley

It's OK to be predictable in two types of games:

1. Low-limit games. All you usually need to win consistently is a good basic knowledge of the game and the discipline to play formulaic poker. There is really no need to vary your play, because how many low-limit players are really paying attention to your patterns, anyway?

2. Tourist games or any game with a good turnover. If you have a healthy circulation of opponents, such as in Las Vegas or other tourist destinations, you really won't play against anyone long enough to worry about becoming predictable.

But what about when you move up to the middle limits, say $15-$30 through $40-$80? You begin to see the same players more often, especially in locales that have only one or two games at those limits. Furthermore, they are usually more observant and better at making adjustments than lower-limit players. So, when you find yourself against such opponents, you must start making a conscious effort to avoid predictability. Even when one play seems inherently better than another, some tim es you must make the less correct play, just to mix things up and keep your opponents guessing.

Example:

Our hero Randy was in his usual $20-$40 hold'em game. Suzanne limped in from middle position, and Randy raised with the A Q. Devon called from the big blind and Suzanne also called. Both of them were strong players and regulars in this game. They each had logged plenty of hours with Randy.

The flop came K J 4. They checked to Randy, and he bet his nut-flush draw and gutshot-straight draw. Devon check-raised, Suzanne cold-called two bets, and Randy had to decide on his next move.

Typically, he liked to three-bet in that situation, as many middle-limit players would. He obviously needed to improve to win, but with 12 outs and two opponents, he was getting positive equity on any money that went in on the flop. Furthermore, three-betting allowed him to use his favorable position to help him take control of the hand. His opponents would often check to him once he three-bet the flop, and then he would have the option of betting again or taking a free card.

However, he knew that Devon and Suzanne were getting used to this tendency of his. They knew that when he three-bet the flop, he would usually take a free card on the turn. They had started countering him by four-betting on the flop, or calling and then leading into him on the turn. Basically, reraising on the flop was no longer carrying the desired effect.

Randy decided that the tim e was right to start varying his play. He merely called Devon's raise and played his drawing hand defensively, something that, as a solid middle-limit player, he wouldn't normally do! Much to his delight, the turn was the 2. Devon fired $40. Suzanne called. Randy raised. Devon three-bet. Suzanne gave way (later informing everyone that she had K-Q offsuit), and Randy put in bet number four. Finally, Devon started to lose a little of his confidence as he called the fourth bet.

The river was the 5 , for a final board of K J 4 2 5. Devon checked and called, flipped up his K J, and said, "You must have flopped a set." Randy then produced the nut flush, at which point he could see the confusion on Devon's face. "Nice hand," said Devon. "I didn't think you had the flush." Without Devon explicitly saying so, Randy knew what he was thinking: "I didn't think you had the flush because you didn't three-bet the flop, and you always three-bet the flop with a drawing hand from the button. What made you decide not to do it this tim e?"

Unpredictability led to profit

Randy was obviously lucky to hit his flush right away. However, I would argue that he picked the perfect tim e to mix up his play, from both a psychological and financial standpoint.

Let's say the flush or straight had not come. The way Randy played the hand, he spent $40 on the flop. If, instead, he had three-bet the flop, one of two things would have happened. Either Devon would have cold-called the third bet and then led into him on the turn, which would have cost Randy an extra $20, or Devon would have four-bet the flop and come out betting on the turn, which would have cost Randy an extra $40! Either way, three-betting was not going to result in a cheaper trip to the river. With top two pair, and the knowledge of Randy's tendency to try for a free card, there was no way Devon was going to risk having the action get checked around on the turn.

At the same tim e, not only did flat-calling on the flop save Randy money the tim es he missed, it kept Suzanne along for the ride when he hit. If Randy had three-bet the flop and Devon had four-bet, she probably would have folded, sensing that she was beaten. Instead, by merely calling Devon's raise on the flop, Randy had effectively trapped Suzanne in the middle.

Now, if Randy hit his hand on either the turn or the river, he'd get $40 out of both opponents before putting in a raise. In other words, even though he saved money the tim es he missed his draw, he didn't win any less when he hit it. In fact, by letting Devon think that he couldn't have the flush, he ended up making more money by spending $40 on the flop rather than $80!

Variety is the spice of poker

Often tim es, people approach me and ask the correct way to play a particular hand, but rarely do I give them a straight answer. And, no, I don't say, "It depends," because, frankly, I am a little sick of that phrase myself. What I do try to explain, though, is that by looking for the one correct way to play a hand, they are missing the point. There is usually more than one right way to play a hand, and as you move up from the lower limits, it becomes more and more important to explore all the different possibilities. One play might be more correct than another, but that doesn't mean you should make that play every tim e. Otherwise, your opponents will eventually catch on.

Predictable poker will get you only so far. To reach the next level, you must add an element of unpredictability to your game. As long as you choose your spots well, the positive effects will be threefold:

1. Your results will be better for that day.

2. You will have thrown your opponents a curve that will work to your advantage the next tim e you play against them.

3. You will have taken a step toward improving your overall skills.

Simply put, you will take your game to the next level, and the resulting profits will bear that out.

You can find other articles of Matt's in the Online Poker News, which is at www.cardplayer.com.