A Bold Play

It was one of those nice and quiet Sunday afternoons. Knowing there are usually no big pot-limit Omaha games available on Sundays, I headed to the casino to play some limit hold'em, even though the stakes were relatively small (especially when compared to our regular pot-limit game). But because I rarely get to play any long sessions of limit hold'em anymore, I sometimes choose to play on one of these Sundays, because the cardroom opens early, and I can play quite a few hours and practice my discipline, probably more than anything else.

It was now several weeks after my column "A Semibluff Succeeds" appeared in Card Player, and quite a few of my opponents in the game had read that piece. In that column, I described this exact Sunday afternoon game, and analyzed a hand that I stole from one of my opponents, in addition to one or two other moves I had made. Possibly because of that column, people seem to focus on the alleged "stealing" and "bluffing" of mine much more than usual, so I knew I had to make the necessary adjustments, and would have to come up with a real hand every once in a while.

The $10-$20 game I was playing in was not as soft as it is on an average Sunday, but it was still quite a good game. Having said that, I hadn't won any pots in the first three hours of play, and was down almost $300. That's when the following hand developed. Everybody folded to a lady two off the button who called as the first one in. A loose-aggressive player in the cutoff seat called, as well, and I was on the button with Q-J offsuit. Even though this is a hand I would typically limp with, because there were two relatively tight players in the blinds, and I wanted to get the chance to play against the two somewhat looser players only, I decided to raise. Indeed, both blinds folded, so three players saw the flop, A-Q-10 rainbow.

Both players checked to me, I bet, and they both called. The way they called, it appeared to me that they both were rather weak. Even though some players like to check-call with a pair of aces (especially a weak ace, when they fear the raiser might have A-K or A-Q, but they still want to keep him honest), in this case I thought they didn't even hold that much. So, when the turn was an offsuit 6 and they both checked again, I fired $20, confident that my pair of queens with a jack kicker was the best hand.

The lady hesitated and finally called. Knowing this player, she would have called instantly with an ace or even a queen, and the way she called, it seemed to me that she wasn't drawing but had a weak made hand. I put her on a 10, something like 10-9 or 10-8. The other player, who is aggressive but rather inexperienced and far too loose, called rather quickly, and his body language suggested that he probably had a queen – in which case my jack kicker was undoubtedly good. (With K-Q, he probably would have raised preflop, and with any other paint card, he now would have made two pair, and I didn't sense that much strength in him.) It was possible that he had a Q-J, as well, but something like Q-9, Q-8, or even queen-small suited were all just as likely, as this person would play all of these hands in this situation.

The river card was another 6, making a final board of A-Q-10-6-6. Once again, they both checked, and with my now rather weak Q-J (my kicker didn't play anymore, meaning I would have to split with any queen, and anyone with an ace, 6, or even K-J beat me easily), it would seem normal to simply check it back. After all, usually in this situation, I will get called only by someone who has me beat or who has the same hand that I do, so there would be no value in betting – right? Well, not really. If my read on both players was correct, and knowing both of their tendencies, I was pretty sure I could get the lady to pay me off with just one 10, and after showing this much strength (a tight player like me betting on all streets against this scary board,and the lady paying me off three times), the inexperienced player with the queen might then reason that at least one of us had to have an ace or better. This is exactly what happened: The lady with the 10 called, and the third player folded, showing a queen. So, instead of a split, I won the entire pot.

The inexperienced player showed both surprise and disappointment at the outcome, because he is not someone to throw away a marginal hand easily. But, he had done just that, and it turned out to be wrong! Well, of course he was correct in folding his hand, because in this situation, where I knew I was going to get called, there was no chance whatsoever that I could be bluffing, and the way the betting had gone, I was almost certain to have a big ace or better. But because both players had basically given away their hands by their betting patterns, their predictability, and their body language, they had made it very easy for me to take a "shot for nothing" by making a bet that, if my read was correct, was basically free of risk. Fortunately, it paid off well for me.

After that, I won a couple more pots, raising before the flop with some very marginal hands. First, I raised from the small blind with the K 8, once again to force out the big blind and to compete with the same two players again. This raise happened to make the player who would have won fold, and instead of losing quite a few bets, my top pair of kings won a decent-sized pot because of the contributions of the aggressive player, who called me down with second pair. Then, on the very next hand, I raised from the button with A-9 offsuit, got three-bet by the small blind, and ended up winning a very big pot by making the nut flush on the turn. This meant that I had booked quite a good win for the day without getting any decent starting hands, and by winning three decent-sized pots with hands that were fairly marginal, at best.

A few minutes after that, the two weaker players left and the table suddenly became shorthanded, as just some of the tighter players remained. Having shown nothing but garbage in the last two or three pots, I decided to call it a day, as well, because I knew that the tight players would never give me credit for a real hand after all of the previous aggression of mine with – in their eyes – crummy cards. Now, in a shorthanded game, you simply cannot afford to wait for premium cards. You have to steal a lot, but after all the events on this day, I didn't think I could get away with any thievery anymore. So, this being the only game available on this day, I decided to go home and do some writing, instead.

I was pleased with the way I had played in this session, particularly with the Q-J hand. It doesn't happen very often that you have an almost perfect read on not just one, but two players, and that from there, you can basically predict their actions and lure the worst hand into calling and the same hand as yours into folding. It was a bold play, that's for sure, and one that I might not make again in a very long time – but it sure felt good.