Tournament Analysis: Festa Al Lago IV - Part I

Warm Rain and Hot Play in Las Vegas

Festa al Lago IV, a series of 10 no-limit Texas hold'em tournaments, spans a fortnight. The venue is the spectacular Bellagio Hotel and Casino. The main event, the sixth of 16 televised fourth-season World Poker Tour (WPT) shows, is known as the Doyle Brunson North American No-Limit Hold'em Poker Championship. Carlos Mortensen won the inaugural, testimonial tournament last year. The soft-spoken conquistador will be title defending with his relentless, aggressive style.



The players are filing into the Fontana Lounge to begin play on an a typically dreary, rainy day in Las Vegas. Some will begin in the newly refurbished, 40-table poker room. The final count is 420 players (a 34.6 percent 2004-to-2005 increase). Each participant qualified via online play, a Bellagio satellite, or the old-fashioned way – paying $10,200 at the cashier's cage. Players will start with $20,000 in tournament chips and the final 100 survivors will walk away with cash prizes. The champion will take home $1,060,050 in four days (including a buy-in to the WPT Championship in April 2006). You'll read about the first three days in this, the first of a two-part piece. I'll detail the action at the final table in the next issue.



Lights, Camera, Action

Day one: Play commences with 10 players at each table (we will move to ninehanded tomorrow) and comfortable blinds of $50-$100 (small blind-big blind). Limits will rise every 90 minutes of play, with ante activation at level three (blinds of $100-$200 with each player anteing $25). During the first few levels, players will be attempting to evaluate the flow at their table, and capitalize on fortuitous cards. In general, they will be reticent to commit their chips to hands that might be second best. However, that's just what Paul "X-22" Magriel does with his pocket kings. The fact that Paul went to the felt with K-K preflop, instead of mucking his powerful hand, can be critiqued, but not by me. I would have played the hand similarly, unless I knew my opponent was squeaky tight.



I caught up with Paul on the Fontana veranda, and we discussed the hand. Here are X-22's step-by-step thoughts:



"We were several hours into play and I had about $11,000. A player with $13,000, who was stealing frequently, made it $400 from under the gun (the minimum raise). I was in middle position and picked up kings. I made it $1,625. Here's where it got interesting. Everyone else folded, and he did a 'mini-reraise' to $2,900. Now, I've done quite a bit of what I call 'sociology work' on certain betting patterns. In this case, a mini-reraise is almost always a sign of strength. Only once, when Chris Ferguson did it to me, did my opponent not possess a huge hand. It (the mini-reraise) is extremely threatening and shows that the opponent is trying to build a pot. My proper play is to call, and use my position on the flop to determine how I proceed. But, I factored in how this player perceived me."



I brilliantly inquire, "How was that?"



Paul responds matter-of-factly, "He thinks I'm full of s – – -." X-22, seemingly unbothered by his reputation of being a semimaniac, continues in stride: "But still, overriding his perception is his mini-reraise. But, even knowing he is very strong, it's just hard to get away from kings before the flop, and I don't recommend people do that. But, this was an exception based on his betting pattern, and I probably, instead of losing all of my chips, could have lost $3,000, or maybe $5,000, depending upon the flop. But, instead of calling, I made a monster raise. He immediately came over the top and put me all in. I called, having pot odds for my last chips, even though I was certain he had aces. He did, and they held up."



Magriel was widely regarded as a top-five backgammon tourney player from roughly 1975 through 1993. He is a premier teacher/strategist who has authored several outstanding books on the subject. His Backgammon, a 405-page effort, is beautifully written and stands to this day as one of the best, most comprehensive books ever published on the game. I mention Paul's literary prowess because he and Gus Hansen are currently collaborating on a poker book, a must-read for me when it comes out.



When the chips are counted and bagged (five levels played), 213 players remain. Top cash-game professional Chau Giang is our leader with $208,900. Joe Rutledge, who garnered $178,425, follows. There is quite a drop-off to Arthur Rhea and the phenom Michael Gracz, who have accumulated $110,025 and $100,925, respectively. "Texas Dolly" Brunson, long in talent, has a short stack, and resides in 205th place. Surviving as our official short stack is Peter Falting with $3,125.



Long Day's Journey Into Night

Day two: Today our combatants will begin at noon and leave the arena at approximately 1:30 a.m. Maintaining concentration through the seven 90-minute rounds will be crucial.



Doyle is freed up for hosting duties 22 minutes into play when Don Zewin's J J bests the wily veteran's 9 8. Brunson limps from under the gun and calls Don's $2,900 raise from the small blind. Doyle can't get away (he is too short-stacked) from the Q Q 9 flop when Don bets $10,000. The 3 and 6 arrive to confirm Doyle's departure.



Despite the $1 million-plus first-place prize at stake, players often have a good time at the table. Today, as I try to get a photo of Gavin Smith (he is my toughest subject; the reigning Mirage Poker Showdown champ is usually sitting behind a massive chip stack and numerous beverage bottles with his head, hands, and upper torso in constant motion), he is conversing with Lyle Berman, who just snagged about $12,000 of Gavin's chips. Gavin smiles and tells the business and poker icon, "Lyle, I like you and respect you, but you know I'm gonna bust you."



Lyle laughs and immediately responds, "Of course, that's your job."



Barry Greenstein, Lyle's good friend, laughs and chimes in from an adjacent table, "That would be a first; Lyle usually busts himself." Everyone laughs. For those trying to read Barry when he raises, things are a tad tougher; he is now sporting a perfectly trimmed beard.



Gavin, playing on a terrible night's sleep, picked up $32,000 of his chips from one of my favorite players to watch, the vocal and aggressive Jean Robert Bellande. After suffering some bad luck early on (playing Q-Q perfectly, but losing a big chunk of checks), Jean Robert has dropped from 14th place after day one to the critical list three hours into play today. Finally, he makes a big steal-reraise with the K 10 from the small blind. Smith, in middle position, calls with the A Q and is rewarded with the sensational flop of K J 10. Posturing and head games are part of championship poker. After Jean Robert leaves, Gavin smiles and announces, "I'm not the guy you want to try to run off a hand." If Gavin is successful with his friendly taunt, he will be able to better analyze a players' holding when he is faced with a big reraise.

Paul Magriel

Max makes a move. After five players limp, Pescatori, wearing his trademark red, white, and green bandanna headwear, pushes in $12,300 from the big blind. With the blinds at $400-$800 and antes at $100, Max defends his big blind in a big way. Let's analyze Max's play. Poker is a game of risk/reward, and Max believed he had the best of it in this case. He combined the likelihood that he might win uncontested with the possibility that he might prevail with the best hand, if called. If one player contested his strong raise, Max would be getting excellent value (his $12,300 investment into a $28,700 pot). The reason Max stood a good chance to win unchallenged is that the players who limped last were almost certainly not holding big hands. Why do I conclude that? I believe, had either veteran player held a relatively strong hand, he would have raised to eliminate the players in the blinds. Max had to be worried about the under-the-gun limper (a player with a strong hand will oftentimes simply call the blinds when first to act). But, Max knew that player had to contend with five opponents behind him and a huge raise. Max watched his opponents fold like a row of dominoes, and he won $4,800 in chips.



I move from Max's table to watch Harry Demetriou. I see only one hand. The retired clinical scientist and stock market guru gets all of his chips in with K-K. He falls victim to Arnold Spee's A-A. The Reno Hilton World Poker Challenge champ has Harry out-chipped. When the board comes J-8-6-8-4, he says, "Sorry, Harry." They shake hands, and Demetriou heads for the exit.

Barry Greenstein

We are creeping up on 6 p.m. and nearing the money, because 103 players remain. Since the number of entrants exceeded 399, 100 places will be paid. Had we stalled at 399, only 50 places would have been paid.



We have reached 101, thus hand-for-hand play begins to prevent deliberate stalling. It takes 23 minutes until Kent Goulding, one of the world's top backgammon players, is eliminated. Chris Ferguson's 6-6 holds against Kent's Q-J suited. Of course, as Doyle has commented frequently during these showdowns, "It's never easy." Even after flopping a set, "Jesus" has to sweat. The flop contains a jack and the turn card is a queen, thus Goulding can win by matching either holecard again. But, a 3 comes on the river, initiating a round of applause from the mostly standing players, all now assured of a profit. I expect the pace to accelerate, as it usually does when players hit the money. The payoffs from place 100 down to place 51 are all $12,000. When you are playing in a tournament, utilize the pace ebbs and flows caused by the payoff structure.

Elena Trincher

Elena Trincher watches hubby Vadim play for almost 12 hours. He finishes 53rd and cashes in for $12,000. Trincher outlasts first-day leader Chau Giang by one spot. The diminutive, often animated, likeable star told me he picked up just one pair in the first four hours of play, and never held A-K. His pair of queens went down in flames to an A 10. Chau related that he was trying to capitalize on his short-stacked opponents, who needed to commit chips with less than premium hands, but he simply didn't hold the cards to fight with them. He told me he was able to withstand the bad cards with his chip lead to bide time, but when his cards didn't improve and the blinds/antes climbed, he began draining chips quickly. Late in the day, Chau suffered from second-best problems. First-day chip leaders, irrespective of skill level, rarely make WPT final tables due to the field sizes of today's events.



At the close of play, 39 remain. The leader board after day two features (1) Ernie Scherer – $675,500; (2) Gavin Smith – $497,500; (3) Tony Grand – $457,000; (4) Michael Gracz – $402,500; and (5) Dan Harrington – $375,000.

Proven, well-known threats (with at least $222,000 in chips) lurk in the forms of Young Phan, Chris Ferguson, Steve Brecher, Barry Greenstein, and Jan Sorensen. Matt Lefkowitz ($42,000 remaining) and Eskimo Clark ($53,000 left) are two savvy, seasoned tournament battlers who will be trying to work their way up from short-stack status.



Six Will Survive

Day three: I decide to watch Lefkowitz and Clark, because I expect they are ripe for action. Playing eighthanded with the blinds at $3,000-$6,000 and players anteing $500 per hand, each round of folding will deplete $13,000 from a player's stack. An important concept in short-stack play is the value of compounding from a larger base. For example, if Lefkowitz waits two rounds and doubles through one opponent, he will win only $16,000 from that player, in addition to whatever blinds and antes are in the pot. Matt also will lose his "power of bluff," since his meager $16,000 stack will be non-threatening. Conversely, if he moves in on the first hand today, he will be able to put fear into the holder of a small pocket pair or an A-9. If Matt is called and prevails, he will rake in a pot of at least $87,000.



Matt moves in immediately, but loses. Gus Hansen, knowing his short-stacked opponent must make a move soon, must think his K-K will be a substantial favorite when he calls. Surprise, surprise! Matt turns over pocket aces. Gus can only muster, "Wow … wow!" But, a king flops to end Matt's run. Four minutes later, Eskimo goes down to Jan Sorensen's two pair. The two departizng pros did what they had to do to have a chance at the big money.



The best viewing point for me becomes a spot just two feet behind Barry Greenstein. Fortunately, the man known for his intelligence, his book Ace on the River, his poker prowess, and his enormous charitable contributions is cool with me hanging over him. I have gotten to know Barry only recently, and found he is comfortable with just about anything. Between hands we talk about his book, his beard, and some of the things he thinks about when he plays. While the one-time Ph.D. candidate is quiet and almost bashful about his accomplishments, he is fervent when discussing one of his passions, poker strategy.



I'll share part of Barry's view on poker self-analysis with you. We were discussing a key hand at the 2005 WPT final table in Aruba, where he lost all of his chips to an A-J opponent when he held A-K. I asked him whether he had difficulty falling asleep that night. He replied, "No, because that bad luck is not why I lost the tournament. I never dwell on that stuff. If I go all in with aces and the guy beats me, that's the way it goes. Sometimes I take someone out with aces and sometimes they take me out. I played that A-K hand correctly. But, I do re-examine my play of hands that I think I played badly; when I had two decisions to choose from and made the wrong one." He pauses while looking at me, I assume to emphasize the next point. "All these decisions should be made relative to how your opponents are playing at the time. In Aruba, had I played some of the hands that led up to the A-K better, I probably would have survived the A-K loss." Barry is advising us to work on the areas of our game that we can control. He is suggesting that we should not waste time and energy dwelling on the intractable.



Kathy Liebert, playing to Barry's left, and Steve Brecher, playing to Kathy's left, seem interested in our conversation. Steve asks (paraphrased), "When you make an incorrect decision, how do you know later?"



Barry responds, "Well, when I really have time to sit down and talk it over, sort of like stop action versus real time, to think about what was going on and analyze it in problem fashion, I can sometimes say there was probably a better way to play the hand against that particular person." Steve, an accomplished player and top theorist/mathematician, picks up a new hand and nods, seemingly satisfied with the answer.



Barry raises from the button. Kathy comes over the top from the small blind. After Steve folds, Barry immediately mucks. Players often delay folding, feigning a possible call with holdings they know they will muck (to alert the reraiser that he or she may get called next time). To Barry, time is valuable, thus he mucked his steal hand quickly.



As I return to our discussion, now transitioned into ways of diversifying one's play versus different types of opponents, I watch Minh Ly (pronounced Ming Lee), seated two to Barry's right, take several uncalled pots and begin to push, hoping to go on a big rush. First, his K-K takes down Craig Hartman's Q-Q. Three hands later, his 10 10 eliminates Joe Clapper, who holds the A Q. He wins another hand with pocket aces. Finally, after he raises to $16,000, Barry comes over the top with another $24,000, and Ly folds. Did Barry have a hand, or was he playing position and trying to halt Minh Ly's rush? Ly fires another $16,000 into the next pot. Everyone folds. The ultraslim star started in 23rd place and appears to be within six or seven spots of the chip lead just an hour into play. I chat some more with Barry and Kathy Liebert. When I look up, I see an all-in situation. Ly has the A 8. His opponent has committed his chips with the K 10. Ly prevails as the 57-to-43 favorite when the board comes 4-2-2-4-9.



I guess Gus Hansen didn't hear Gavin yesterday when Smith good-naturedly informed everyone within earshot that he is not the player to try to run off a hand. The Great Dane makes an all-in button raise with 9-3. Smith's A-K prevails when an ace flops. Smith loses Gus' chips to Tom Werthmann in the next hand. During the next break, Gavin tells me he has dropped about $150,000 from his top chip count. When I frown, he says, "I'm not worried, it's always up and down."



I say, "Yeah, just like the stock market, the indices never go straight up." He nods and ambles back to his seat.



Ernie Scherer has had a quiet day. We are now playing $6,000-$12,000 with $2,000 antes (still comfy with $8.4 million chips in play). He raises to $42,000 (I think) from the button. Gavin, in the small blind, contemplates his move while observing his opponent. Finally, the affable Canadian pushes his entire $186,000 forward. Ernie is enthusiastic with his A Q. He calls quickly. But, Gavin has him dominated with the A K (a 72-to-23 favorite, with ties resulting 5 percent of the time). Gavin's hand holds. This encounter was pivotal for both combatants.



Now, almost 15 hours into play today/tonight/tomorrow, we are about to form a television table. After draining massive amounts of checks with second-best hands during the last two hours, Scherer's J-9 flops two pair, but Minh Ly snags a club on the river to make a flush. Ernie, who started the day with great expectations and desire his destiny, must settle for $68,970.



The TV final table is set, as follows:

Lee will return in the next issue with complete coverage of final-table play. You can e-mail him with comments, questions, or suggestions for feature articles at [email protected].