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Doyle Brunson North American Poker Championship

'Thunder' analyzes the play of an amateur player

by Thomas Keller |  Published: Nov 29, 2005

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I recently played in the Doyle Brunson North American Poker Championship at Bellagio – another $10,000 buy-in event in the books, and another early exit for yours truly. A close friend said to me the other day that you've really gotta love poker to keep playing these big events day in and day out, and I am a very fervent believer in that sentiment. If a player doesn't have a true love for the game, it seems unlikely that he will be able to fade the inevitable cold spells of busting out of big tournament after big tournament, and remain patient for those long-fought moments when he gets deep enough in a big tournament to finally make a big score.



Despite my early departure from this event, several interesting hands came up that I would like to share. Two of these hands involved a very nice amateur poker player who was seated directly to my left at my first table. His name is Scott, and he's from Hollywood, Florida. The first hand came up when the blinds were $100-$200 and the action was folded to me in the small blind, with Scott in the big blind. I looked down to see the A 9 and decided to raise, making it $700 to go. Scott reraised me another $1,500. The A 9 is not a hand I typically like to play against a reraiser when I'm out of position, so I would often muck this hand in this senario. But this time I decided to call, since we both had deep stacks of around $20,000 before the start of this hand, and I thought Scott might be reraising with less than a premium hand, given that it was a battle of the blinds and my raise likely looked like a total steal attempt.



The flop came A-10-3 with one club. I took a moment, and checked to Scott, who quickly bet $1,000 into the $4,400 pot. I was pretty lost at this point in the hand as to what Scott was holding. His small bet into this rather substantial pot led me to think that either he was trying to trap me here with a monster or he had a weak hand and was just throwing out a tester bet. Given my read, the texture of the board, and my flopped top pair, I just called his small bet, since I was not too worried about giving him a cheap turn card, as he could have only five outs at most to beat me if he did have a weaker hand than mine.



The turn brought an interesting card, the 10, pairing the board and giving me the nut-flush draw. I decided to check to Scott again, and much to my surprise, he moved all in for well over twice the size of the pot. I thought the bet was pretty suspicious, but Scott seemed extremely confident, so I felt fairly sure that I was beat, but I just couldn't figure out by what. Given how confident Scott was, I thought he could beat trip tens, as the 10 pairing on the turn did not seem to scare him at all. However, that would mean that he had either a full house or quad tens, and his turn bet seemed like quite an overbet with such a strong holding, as I was likely drawing to few if any outs against a full house and he would want to keep me in the pot. I eventually folded, and he told me it was a nice laydown.



A few minutes later he confided in me that he, sure enough, had A-10 offsuit for the full house. Normally I don't put a lot of faith in what people tell me they had after a hand is over, as poker players tend to lie a lot in that spot. But, I completely believe Scott in this case, as I told him I was planning to write about this hand, and he assured me that he would not want a lie written about a hand that he played. I asked him why he played his hand the way that he did, and I found his thought process rather interesting, if not a little convoluted. He said that he would often just call or fold with this holding preflop, but he thought I was likely to be stealing – and he hates it when people try to steal his blinds (who doesn't?), so he decided to reraise. On the flop, he said he bet small because he knew that he had flopped a monster and he wanted to keep me in the pot. His logic is reasonable, except that by betting so small, he would be giving me odds to spike a gutshot if I held either K-Q, K-J, or Q-J. So, I would have bet more with his hand on the flop if I were him, probably between $2,000 and $2,500. On the turn, he said he was confident that I held an ace, and wanted to put me to the test, hoping that I would call and that he would double through me.



The big mistake he made in his thought process at that point in the hand was that he thought I would call his huge all-in turn bet with an ace, which is something I would almost never do unless I had a great read on him that he was very weak. Even if I had held A-K, I still would have folded in this situation, because he had no fear of the paired tens on board. Now, if he had bet small on the turn, like $2,000-$3,000, I likely would have been forced to call, and if the river brought another club, that would have been a true disaster for me.



About five hands later, with the blinds still at $100-$200, Scott limped in from early position and a short-stacked player raised to $700. Mike Matusow called from the button, both blinds folded, and Scott called the additional $500. The flop came down 9-8-6 rainbow, and Scott led out into his two opponents for $750 into the $2,400 pot. The initial preflop raiser moved all in for another $5,800, and Mike thought for several seconds before laying down his hand. Now, Scott went into the think tank, the entire time muttering, "He's bluffing, I know he's got nothing." I thought the preflop raiser had an overpair, and at worst, J-10 or possibly pocket sevens. Scott finally called, revealing the A 9. Sure enough, the disgruntled all-in player turned over J-10. Now it was Mike's turn to whine, as he proclaimed that he layed down pocket tens (a laydown that I absolutely love), which would have been about a 65-35 favorite if he was up against just the J-10, and about a 42 percent winner against both the J-10 and the A 9 if Scott decided to overcall if Mike had not folded. Two blanks came, and Scott busted the all-in player, giving himself a hefty pat on the back for making the very questionable call of the all-in player with his top pair. Even though Scott made the correct call in this instance, I would almost always lay down his hand in this spot, barring some great read of mine that the all-in player was very weak. Scott was getting less than 2-1 to make the call, and he had to figure that at best, he was a 60-40 favorite over pocket sevens, and if he was up against J-10, it was a virtual coin flip, and he was more than a 3-1 dog against an overpair.



I went out of the tournament in rather undramatic fashion, calling a small reraise preflop with pocket jacks and getting all in on the Q-J-9 flop against the preflop reraiser who, sure enough, had pocket queens. The case jack did not come, and I graciously wished everyone good luck and made a quick exit, getting to my room before I allowed myself to start sulking about the cold-decking I had just received.



I hope that the next tournament you play, you will end up winning, and not sulking!

Thomas "Thunder" Keller is a 25-year-old professional poker player and one of poker's young and rising stars. He can often be found playing at UltimateBet.com under the name thunderkeller. To learn more about him, go to his website at http://www.thunderkeller.com/. Also, feel free to contact him at [email protected].