Starting-Hand Selection and Stack Size - Part I

Introduction

A lot has been written about the influence of the amount of chips in front of you on the hands you can and should play. Almost without exception, these writings are about tournament play. After all, it should be clear that in tournaments, those who look only at the quality of their cards when making the decision whether or not to play, and don't take into account the size of their and their opponents' stacks, will perform significantly worse than those who do make these adjustments.



But this column is not about tournament play; it is about the relationship of stack size and hand selection when it comes to money play. In the past, the majority of cash games were limit, which meant that almost all literature that discussed cash-game poker was written from the viewpoint of limit play, and the good big-bet strategies were almost always analyzed from a tournament perspective, not cash game. But because of the recent growth of big-bet cash games, both in brick-and-mortar casinos as well as online, it is time to re-evaluate some of this old big-bet tournament literature and dig into specific cash-game strategies for big-bet play. That's what I'll do in this two-part series.



I will discuss a few pot-limit Omaha starting hands, and will analyze how the size of your stack can have a major impact on the playability and potential profitability of those hands. I will show that some hands should be played with big stacks but not with small stacks – and sometimes the other way around. Note that the information I will provide is not easy to digest, and to my knowledge, not too much has appeared in print on this specific topic before. If you want to become successful in big-bet cash games, it is absolutely imperative that you understand the concepts that I will discuss here. It goes without saying that the underlying concepts I will share with you are not just for pot-limit Omaha; they are equally important for other big-bet games, like pot- and no-limit hold'em.



Hand No. 1: K-K-8-3 rainbow

Now, while most people who come from a hold'em background would think this is a premium hand, all good Omaha players know that it actually is a piece of cheese, because it is non-suited and totally uncoordinated; the pair of kings is just about its only value. Having said that, the hand does have some strength, and if you manage to flop a third king, you are usually in a very powerful position – especially when you are in a multiway pot and/or are up against relatively weak opposition.



This means that if you have a medium stack (say, between $500 and $700 in a game with $10-$10 blinds, or, in other words, a stack size of 50-70 times the big blind) and the opposition is not too tough, there is nothing wrong with calling from middle or late position in an unraised pot to see the flop cheaply. After all, you know that if you don't flop a king, you almost certainly will fold. But it is worth seeing the flop, because if you do hit, you may very well win a big pot.



But if you are playing a small stack (say, anywhere from $150 to $250, or less than 25 times the big blind), this preflop call may not be as automatic. This is especially true if it is probable that the pot will be raised behind you. So, with a small stack, you might want to call from on or near the button in an unraised pot, but not from early or middle position, because if you call and the pot gets raised behind you, you will probably have to forfeit your bet – a bet that represents a fairly high percentage of your stack. In some cases, when playing a short or very short stack, it may actually be worth it to go all in preflop with this hand. This is especially true if you are in a game with very aggressive players who may give you "protection," either before or after the flop. They may bet very aggressively with marginal holdings to blast everyone out of the pot in order to reach the river cheaply and maybe get lucky against the all-in player (you). This means that with all the dead money in the pot, you are almost certainly a big money favorite – despite these crummy cards you are holding. In fact, against one player only, your K-K-8-3 may actually be a clear favorite over the hand with which your opponent is betting and raising. With a medium stack, you could make this call profitably, especially from middle position, because now if the pot gets raised behind you, the investment you will have lost is a much smaller percentage of your total stack. Remember, in big-bet poker, you are always looking for opportunities to double through. To be more precise, especially with a relatively shallow stack, you should usually try to play for your entire stack when you decide to get involved. In other words, play for all of your money or don't play at all. In cases like this, risking even 5 percent of your stack with a very speculative holding is a definite no-no, especially if there is a reasonable chance that you may not get to see the flop.



What does all of this mean?

This means that K-K-8-3 should often be folded with a short stack and can often be played with a medium stack; now then, logic says that we can almost always play it when holding a big stack, right? Well, not really. Because of the following conditions, playing this hand can sometimes be profitable if you have a medium stack, but unprofitable when playing a large stack (say, more than 100 times the big blind).



• If you flop top set with a stack of 50 times the big blind or so, you will almost never be making a terrible mistake by putting in your entire stack on the flop. Even if you are up against a made straight or a completed flush, you may well have up to seven outs on the flop and up to 10 outs on the turn to win the pot. Especially with the dead money in the pot already, you will almost never be making a serious mistake, and if you are up against more than one opponent, you are usually in a positive expected value situation – even if one or both of your opponents have your three kings beat at this stage.



• But, if the money is deeper, the dead money in the pot accounts for a much smaller percentage of the total pot size. With a medium stack and a flop of K-Q-J, you would not be that reluctant to put in all of your money, knowing that even if you are up against the nut straight, you will still win the pot a significant percentage of the time. In fact, because of the dead money in the pot, putting in your money may actually be the correct mathematical play. But with a very large stack, it will worry you to put in all of your money if you have just, say, a 24 percent to 42 percent chance of winning. If you make a mathematically unsound decision when playing deep money, the penalty will be very severe. So, flopping the third king with a large stack is not the same through ticket that it usually is with a short or medium stack. And because of this, an uncoordinated hand like K-K-8-3 – which has only one way to hit, and even then, has no backup whatsoever – is usually a clear fold in deep-money play.



Some concrete examples of the problems/difficulties for K-K-8-3 in deep-money play

Let's dig into this matter a little deeper by analyzing the troubles you may face when playing a big stack, even when you flop the hand you want: top set.



• Let's say the flop is K-10-6 with two of a suit. You bet the pot from middle position and get called by the button. The turn is an offsuit 9 – a card that may or may not have helped your opponent. Let's say there is $220 in the pot, and both you and your opponent have $1,200 left. It should be clear that this is a very tough situation for you. If your opponent is a good player and has the hand-reading abilities to put you on top set, he may be able to make you fold the best hand by semibluffing you. Or, if he has made his straight, he may be able to lure you into calling or even raising with a hand that has only a few outs to improve. From this simple example, it should be obvious that with deep money, the draw in position has some clear playing advantages against the made hand out of position. You should take these factors into consideration before your decision regarding whether or not to get involved with your hand. After all, it makes no sense to play a crummy hand in order to try to flop a king – only to see yourself get into serious trouble once that third king flops.



• In the same situation, with the same two players and the same K-10-6 flop, let's say that something good happens for you now: the board pairs on the turn. Even though you probably have a lock, it may be hard for you to make any money now that your opponent knows he may be drawing dead. While checking might work against some players in order to induce a bluff, if your opponent has a good read on you and knows you probably have top full house, you may not get much more money out of him. But if the turn is a blank, and you bet the pot ($220) and get called, you will face the same unpleasant situation on the river that you faced in the first example. Almost any river card will be scary, with all the straight and flush possibilities, and if your opponent is a good player, he may very well lure you into making the wrong decision. And if the board pairs, again, you may not make a lot of money. Because of all of this, you may end up winning a relatively small pot in this situation when your hand remains good, but when the final pot gets extremely large, you will lose a rather high percentage of the time.



Conclusion

With relatively deep money, K-K-8-3 is usually playable only when you are in position, and when the opposition is fairly weak. You will usually need a hand like K-K-J-9 single-suited to make a profitable call when your position is not that great, because you will have the chance to flop top set with redraws, which will enable you to play the hand more strongly. Also, if you flop top set, you may have some blocker cards against the straight draws that your opponents may well have. And having just one or two of these cards to block them may actually make the difference between a profitable draw for your opponents and an unprofitable one. You should take all of these factors into account before making the first, seemingly easy, decision to play or not. Knowing in advance the characteristics of a hand with regard to the size of your stack and the potential problems later in the hand is absolutely crucial to playing big-bet poker in a successful manner.



Some final words
In Part II, I will analyze 9-8-7-6 non-suited, and the rather strange-looking A-A-A-X – a hand that causes quite a few Omaha players many problems.

Rolf "Ace" Slotboom has been a professional money player since 1998, specializing in limit hold'em and pot-limit Omaha. He is the tournament reporter for almost all major European tournaments, and is the Dutch commentator for Eurosport's EPT broadcasts. His first book, Hold'em on the Come: Limit Hold'em Strategy for Drawing Hands, is scheduled to be available in March 2006. Rolf can be contacted directly through his site, http://www.rolfslotboom.com/.