Midseason Review

The middle of the football season is both an appropriate and valuable time to review how your wagers have done so far as a whole. There have been plenty of games, both college and pro, to get an accurate measure of your handicapping prowess for the year. Take a step back from the last week or two and consider the overall picture.



If you're doing well, winning most weeks, and appear to be in tune with the 2005 season, I recommend a brief review of your losing wagers. See if there are any repeating flaws in your analysis with the bets that lost. But don't complicate things too much as long as you're winning. If your handicapping approach or system is making you consistent profits this year, you don't want to be changing it too much. It's nice to be in a winning rhythm.



If you are not doing well, however, it's time for a more detailed review. Here's a quick check list.



1. See if you're taking too many underdogs against power teams. Repeatedly going against too much power can be a dangerous habit. Regularly fighting for wins by going against teams with a class difference in terms of size, manpower, depth, and recruiting quality usually leaves you at a disadvantage over a period of time.



2. Be sure you're not overemphasizing history or trends to get the job done for you. Times change. Games are won and lost – covered or not – by the players on the field at the time of the game and the current coach. Just about every program, including Southern Cal, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Miami, has gone through cycles. In the NFL, the cycles are usually shorter. Don't count on history to win this week's game. And you certainly don't want to be riding a declining team down the slide.



3. Check to see if you've been relying upon too many young quarterbacks. Some youngsters mature faster than others at football's most crucial position. But, as I've written before on these pages, the developmental progression of young QBs has many stages (that is, merely winning any game, then winning on the road, beating a good team, beating a good team on the road, winning big games, and so on). If you're counting on young QBs with your wagers early in the season, take care that they're not overmatched.



4. Be sure your wagers aren't being affected by key injuries or clusters of injuries that are fazing your team's performances. All teams suffer injuries. Most can adjust to an injury or two, especially the good teams. But most teams cannot overcome the loss of several key players, or the loss of groups of players in one or two units (for example, the offensive line, or pass rushers).



5. See if you're repeatedly going against some of the up-and-coming teams this season. Inevitably, several previously struggling teams turn things around every season, often thanks to a veteran QB, good coaching, favorable schedule, solid nucleus of seasoned players, or a key newcomer or two. Vanderbilt, for example, raised lots of eyebrows early this season. When a team is no longer the overmatched also-ran it used to be, you can't count on those early turnovers or late defensive collapses that used to be so profitable for you.



6. Most importantly, check your money management habits. If you've been expanding your weekly list of plays while you've been on a downtrend, you need to cut back. See if you've been making a lot of "impulse bets" on games late in the day after some of your other plays didn't work out. Be sure you're not betting lots of TV games that figure to be exciting to watch but are hard to handicap. Being involved with lots of parlays and teasers, especially the multi-teamers, is not a good habit. And be honest with yourself and make sure that you're not chasing your money by betting the late games on Saturday, the Sunday night game, and the Monday Night Football game. Sometimes the best way for you to "double" your money on the tough-to-call games is to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket.



Remember, if you're participating in sports wagering regularly, you must choose whether you're betting to have fun or to win. If you're betting just for the fun of the action, avoid betting any serious money. Believe me, you'll have more fun if you don't lose a bundle or put financial strain on your life. But, if you're betting to win, review your plays to make sure that your worst sports-betting enemy doesn't live in your mirror.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at http://www.goldsheet.com/.