Staying One Mental Step Ahead of the Competition Part II

Welcome back to the second part of my two-part series on levels of thinking in poker. This column is devoted entirely to the third and most confusing level of poker thinking. Don't get discouraged if you find it difficult to understand, especially if you are new to poker.



The third and final level of poker thinking is extremely complicated and a bit of a tongue twister, to boot. The concept deals with trying to determine what your opponent thinks that you think he is holding. This concept should generally be used only by very talented poker players against other talented poker players. In order for this level of thinking to be applied successfully, your opponent must not only know the strength of his holding, but also must have enough confidence in your poker abilities to think you are trying to read his hand. A quick example of this concept goes as follows: Let's pretend that you are a skilled player who is playing against another skilled player with whom you have played many times. Your opponent limps in from early position in an aggressive, full no-limit hold'em cash game. You call from the button with J 10 and the flop comes J-10-3 rainbow, giving you two pair. Everyone checks to you, and you make a bet of three-quarters of the pot, trying to protect your hand and not wanting to give the field a free card. Everyone folds to the early limper, who now makes a substantial pot-sized raise, but still leaving both of you with lots of chips if you decide to just call. At this point in the hand, you have quite a decision to make.



I read your opponent as having the same hand as yours (which is fairly unlikely, given that two of the jacks and tens are already out), as having flopped a set of jacks or tens (which is also unlikely, given again that two of the jacks and tens are already out), or as slow-playing an overpair preflop, probably aces. There is also a chance that he could be playing a straight draw of K-Q, Q-9, or even 9-8 very aggressively, or could possibly have a set of threes.



So now the action is to you, and I think folding top two pair is completely out of the question. That leaves you the option of just calling or reraising, and probably reraising all in at this point in the hand. Right now it is fairly obvious to me that your opponent is representing pocket aces or better. Limping in from early position in an aggressive game with A-A is a very common play. Your opponent's next play of making a big check-raise on the flop would also be a common way to play aces in this scenario, given the preflop limp. Thus, if you move all in and your opponent is holding aces and is skilled enough to think you put him on aces or better, he should fold unless he thinks you are making some kind of huge bluff (and if he thinks that you think that he is holding bullets, it is unlikely that he thinks that you would try to bluff him off aces on this flop, as few players would lay down aces here, even against a sizable reraise). Note that moving all in here is not a bad play, as you would be picking up a substantial pot if your opponent folds, and if he decides to call and is holding aces, you are getting him to put a lot of money in as a substantial underdog. Moving all in also provides your hand maximum protection against any draw he may have, unless you cannot raise him enough to give him worse than about 2-1 pot odds to draw to his straight.



Another way you could play this hand is to use third-level poker thinking and just call his raise on the flop. By just calling, you would be trying to make your opponent think he flopped the best hand with pocket aces. If a blank rolled off on the turn, many players in his spot with aces would make a significant bet or even go all in against you to protect their overpair, or hope that you would call with a weaker hand, since given the way you have played the hand, you have made him think his aces are the best hand, when they are not. Just calling the flop may be the more profitable way to play this hand in the long run, especially if you have an excellent read that he does have aces or most any overpair to the board. However, this play is more risky than going all in, as it gives your opponent a chance to spike a better hand than yours if he was semibluffing with a straight draw and gets there on the turn, or your two pair gets counterfeited, or an ace comes on the turn or the river (assuming he would have folded aces to an all-in bet on the flop). Either way you decide to play the hand, if your opponent has J-10 beat on this flop, you're probably going to go broke, so no amount of logic will help you in that situation.



I don't expect everyone to understand all the nuances of this two-part series of columns, and that is perfectly fine. The basic premise of these columns is to try to stay one, and only one, mental step ahead of your opponent. If he can read his own hand, use level-one poker thinking against him. If he is trying to read your hand, you can try to use level-two poker thinking against him (at your own risk). If he is thinking about what you think he is holding, you can try your best to use level-three poker thinking against him (or, often preferably, ask for a table change if that is at all possible).



Isn't poker fun? I hope you enjoyed these columns!

Thomas "Thunder" Keller is a 25-year-old professional poker player and one of poker's young and rising stars. He can often be found playing at UltimateBet.com under the name thunderkeller. To learn more about him, go to his website at http://www.thunderkeller.com/. Also, feel free to contact him at [email protected].