The College Bowl Season

Once again this season, the NCAA has approved a large postseason bowl slate of 28 games. That means 56 of the current 117 Division I-A teams will be going "bowling" in the postseason. That's virtually half of the I-A teams, just about every team that has posted a winning record. And with this many games strung out over a relatively long period for TV programming purposes, savvy handicappers will have plenty of time to study the teams, find edges versus the pointspread, and examine just about every aspect of the matchups.



Before discussing some very useful bowl angles of the recent past, I want to point out that a shift in the normal football handicapping mindset is usually required for the bowls. More precisely, handicappers must recognize the fact that bowl contests are much different than regular-season games, with a higher "X-Factor" – that is, unusual things that can happen to a team between the end of its season and its bowl game that can make some bowl outcomes less predictable. Recent examples include coaches being fired or leaving their teams for another job, key players losing their academic eligibility before the bowl game due to poor December test results, players being suspended at the scene of the bowl for partying a little too heartily, and good teams losing much of their season-ending momentum and never getting it back. All such events can disrupt an otherwise logical, fundamental analysis of relative team strengths.



With that caveat mentioned, let's take a look at last season's bowl results and how they compared with some previous moneymaking ideas in the bowl season.



The underdogs (no surprise) and the "overs" had the best of it in last season's bowls, each going 17-11 versus the spread. Underdogs continued to do well in the pre-New Year's Day bowls, going 12-8 (60 percent) versus the spread. Combined with the three previous seasons, underdogs the last four years in the pre-New Year's Day bowls are now 45-28 versus the spread (61.6 percent), a fine mark in pointspread wagering. This trend can be easily rationalized. With so many of the Division I-A teams in action, the actual differences between most middle-rung teams at neutral sites are often smaller than perceived. Also, sometimes the mere intangible of one team being the underdog in a bowl game helps that team get better focused for the game against a nonconference foe.



Bowl favorites tend to do a bit better on and after New Year's Day, when the cream of the crop begin playing. Although these favorites were only 3-5 last season, such favorites are still 17-15 versus the spread the last four years.



As for those totals that were 17-11 in favor of the "overs" last year, it was interesting to note that of the six highest totals (65 points or more), there were four "overs" versus only two "unders," with the two highest totals of the bowl season – UAB-Hawaii (76) and Boise State-Louisville (79½) – both going "over." So, don't be surprised to see more "nosebleed" totals posted this year. It was also interesting that when the totals were a relatively low 45 or less for a college game, five of the six chances last year also went "over." Perhaps that's because even the low-variance teams of the regular season tend to roll out the gimmick plays and punt-block plays in the bowls.



There are three bowls that have become very popular among underdog bettors in recent years. Maybe it's because of conference tie-ins or their position in the bowl pecking order, but the Independence, the Sun, and the Peach bowls have become rather remarkable for their dog prowess.



In the 2004 Independence, Iowa State, getting only 2½ points, upset Miami-Ohio 17-13. Underdogs in the Independence Bowl are now 12-5 the last 17 years.


In the Sun Bowl, Arizona State, getting 7½ points with starting quarterback Andrew Walter out, upset Purdue 27-23. Underdogs in the Sun Bowl are now 13-1-2 the last 16 years.



In the 2004 Peach Bowl, Miami-Florida (a 3½-point favorite) beat Florida 27-10. However, Miami had lots of intangibles going for it. The uppity Gators, citing the rigors of their SEC schedule, had once again dropped the Hurricanes from their annual schedule. And the Florida players were in a bit of disarray following the dismissal of coach John Zook. However, the underdog is still 9-3 in the last 12 Peach Bowls.


Getting a team properly prepared for a bowl game takes a special knack. And, not surprisingly, some coaches are better at it than others. For example, Boston College has won and covered five straight bowls in the last five years. Miami has won seven straight bowls, covering six. Upstart Boise State is 4-1 straight up and against the spread in the last six years (but three of those covers were on the Broncos' own blue field). Fresno State, always looking to prove itself against bigger-name schools, has won bowls the last three seasons, against Georgia Tech, UCLA, and Virginia, with the Bulldogs getting points in every game. Speaking of Bulldogs, proud Georgia is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in bowls the last eight years.



On the negative side is Notre Dame, which has lost seven straight bowls (covering only once) in the last 11 years! New coach Charlie Weis will try to reverse that trend immediately in his first season.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at http://www.goldsheet.com/.