Increasing Edge by Observing a Hand

Recently I was checking out an Internet poker site, one of the hot up-and-comers with great software, that I had not played in a while. Before playing in a game with unfamiliar opponents, I like to watch the game for a while and get a feel for the styles of my future opponents, which gives me some extra edge in the game. This is an easier thing to do in many ways on the Internet, because hands move so much more quickly than they do in live action, and because hand histories are available. Of course, you give up the ability to observe players' physical behaviors. However, in both live action and on the Internet, a little observation prevents me from making reading errors early in a session due to a total absence of information.



The game was $30-$60 limit hold'em. In the first hand I observed, several players limped in preflop, including the button, the small blind called, the big blind raised, and everyone called the raise.



The flop came 9-8-3 rainbow. The small blind checked, and the big blind bet. An early-position player folded, the player to the right of the button called, and the button raised. The small blind folded, and big blind and the other player in the hand called.



The turn brought an offsuit 4. Both players checked to the button, who fired $60 into the pot. The big blind check-raised, folding the third player, and the button three-bet. The big blind called.



The river was the 3. Both players checked. The big blind showed two tens and the button, wanting to show the rest of the table how unlucky he was, showed down 9-8 offsuit, having flopped top two pair and gotten counterfeited on the river.



After watching just one hand, I knew I was headed for the right game. The play I saw was terrible, and the spread in ability between yourself and your opponents is where you gain your edge.



First, I like it when I see players turn over hands like 9-8 offsuit. Hand selection is a big key to winning in limit hold'em, and 9-8 offsuit is not part of the winning equation. Second, the play of the two tens also showed a lack of knowledge of correct play.



I like the raise before the flop with 10-10 from the big blind. I know some players disagree with that philosophy, but I like to raise because if the board comes clean, giving me an overpair, with my tight image, I can sometimes discourage overcards from (correctly) seeing the turn. They are faced with the prospect that I am likely to hold A-A or K-K, and by calling, are likely to make a second-best hand. If you have an image such that your opponents are going to come after you with overcards in a situation like this, checking preflop has more merit.



The action I really dislike from the big blind with 10-10 is calling the flop raise with the intent of check-raising the turn, because many players raise when in position and then take a free card on the turn. When you flat-call this raiser with the intent of check-raising the turn, you take the risk of your opponent checking, thus losing value beyond the loss of the raise on the flop. By three-betting the flop, you take away that play from your opponent. A critical point to keep in mind if you are thinking of making the trapping play when looking for the check-raise is to make a determination of whether or not your opponent is capable of the free-card play.



By flat-calling, he is giving the caller behind him 15-1 current odds on a call, which makes calling with some mighty weak hands correct. If, instead, Mr. 10-10 three-bet the flop, it would put more pressure on that caller to lay down weaker hands, many with which he would be correct in calling one bet. Also, he may be correct in calling two bets with many hands on a board like that. Anytime you can get a player to lay down a hand with which he is getting the right price to proceed by calling, you have gained. Mr. 10-10 would have risked one more small bet to thin the field, take away the raiser's possible free-card play on the turn, and perhaps get more money in the pot with the best hand.



I also think Mr. 10-10 should have bet the river. The most likely holding of the button was 9-8, which Mr. 10-10 had just drawn out on. More importantly, the way the betting went, the button was likely to read the big blind for having an overpair and check behind him on the river.



If Mr. 10-10 led and got raised on the end, he would have to consider the possibility that he was facing a set (although the player with 9-8 likely would have raised preflop with 9-9 or 8-8, making a set a less likely holding), and would be facing a tough decision. That said, if you avoid all scenarios that will put you to tough decisions, you are undoubtedly giving up some edge, and thus some positive earn.



Having watched this game for just a couple of laps before I sat down, I had good information on several opponents. From the room's chat, I knew that the guy sitting on a $12,000 stack was a sports bettor who had hit an over/winner parlay and didn't know much about poker, but was feeling lucky. I watched one player hit it to open every chance he got from about the sixth position through the button. I saw a guy defend his big blind for two bets with 5-2 suited. I had a feel for the field before I plunked down my chips on the table.



And that increased my edge, which increased my expectation, which over time will increase my earn. That said, I still lost $300 in a two-hour session, but that's poker – and a subject for a different column.

Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for more than 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas. His books are available at http://www.conjelco.com/. His longtime collaborator, John Bond, is a freelance writer in South Florida.