The Face of College Basketball in 2006

Early January always brings across-the-board conference action in college basketball. And that means handicappers must make a significant adjustment in their analysis of most college teams compared with their play in the pre-conference season.



This adjustment has never been as important as it is in the 2006 college basketball environment. There has never been as much roster turnover – nor newcomers seeing significant action – in college basketball as there is this year.



Therefore, it is important for handicappers to withhold firm judgement of the overall ability and potential of each team until all of them get a chance to play at home and on the road in conference games. There can be great variances of play in early home versus road league games by college teams loaded with youngsters. This is a time to closely monitor those differences, and especially to track the performances of each team's key newcomers, especially when they play on the road.



Allow me to briefly address some of the differences between pre-conference and conference play.



Much of the NCAA basketball action in November and December involves one or more of the following: games with huge class mismatches, games against Division II teams, lightly attended holiday tournament games when the students are out of school between semesters, made-for-TV tournaments such as the Preseason NIT, fun-for-the-players tournaments (such as those in Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Las Vegas), and a variety of select marquee intersectional games to provide TV fare when the number of football games begins to die out.



Smart college coaches realize these games are somewhat akin to the NFL preseason. They give lots of playing time to newcomers and bench players for purposes of evaluation. They experiment with different lineup combinations, offensive sets, and defensive tactics. And most coaches – because they know the NCAA title will be decided in a big, pressure-packed tournament and not in the polls – are more willing to risk losses by taking on several very tough opponents.



Conference play is a different animal, however. Holiday visits are over and the students are back in school. This makes for lots of noisy, heavily partisan, packed-house crowds, unlike the laid-back attendees at the many pre-conference neutral-site games. The regular season also means paybacks, grudge matches, and lots of familiarity with conference foes. It means less experimentation by coaches, shorter player rotations, and much more intensity. And that intensity usually is about doubled when teams play their first few games on the conference road. It takes an adjustment by the players – more poise – especially players who are new to a team and whose careers had otherwise been going quite swimmingly.



Here's what I look for early in the conference campaign: teams with a solid returning nucleus, especially in the backcourt, especially in early road games; teams with good free-throw shooters, especially on the road, because winning a close game down the stretch is going to be tougher in conference games than in preconference games; teams with solid inside power players, especially in home games (where the host usually gets a few more officials' calls), as they often have an edge early in conference play by getting younger, overeager opponents in foul trouble.



The biggest negative in my mind is a team loaded with newcomers early in the season that starts off the conference season on the road. This is not a good combination. And the tougher the opposing home team, the worse the situation. Remember, basketball in its essence is a very simple game: Five players, working in unison, move the ball, try to distort the defense, spot the open shooter in a favorable area, and get him the ball for a shot. But accomplishing those tasks with great frequency is another matter, especially in unfamiliar, noisy, hostile, rim-bouncing arenas against teams that already might know an opponent's tendencies.



It takes time for new teammates to learn each other's best moves and favorite shots, no matter how good they were in high school or junior college. And that's why you should have plenty of skepticism regarding teams with lots of newcomers in 2006, especially point guards, especially on the road. You can have less skepticism if a team with key newcomers has faced rugged opposition in pre-conference play, on the road, and especially if its new members have achieved well under fire. As the old proverb states, "Blows that don't break the back strengthen it." This concept has merit in college hoops when it comes to freshmen or juco starters, and to teams with three, four, or five new starters in their lineup.



As the season goes on, nearing the midway point of conference play, you can also lessen your skepticism as newcomers get used to the rigors of the conference road and prove their mettle by getting some road wins, making some key free throws, hitting some game-winning shots, or repeatedly getting key defensive stops. If newcomers have talent, many will acquire the poise needed to take those gifts on the road. But isn't it strange how some players never seem to acquire such poise under pressure during their entire careers? When you see players repeatedly clank their free throws, toss up off-balance shots, drive into the lane with no idea what they're going to do, or cast crucial shots from long distance early in the shot clock in the clutch, you should be taking notes to look for spots to go against their team in future games. Knowing the go-against teams is just as important as knowing the go-with teams.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at 1(800)798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at http://www.goldsheet.com/.