Forming a Plan

Bridge is a game that divides neatly into two areas: the bidding and the play of the hand. Once the bidding is complete, one side has "won" the contract and the declarer will now play the hand. His left-hand opponent makes the opening lead and the dummy hand is now displayed on the table. The declarer now has to play the hand and try to make the contract.



There was an excellent piece of advice that I once read in a bridge book. It suggested that when the opening lead had been made and the dummy hand turned over, the declarer should now pause, even if there was only one card he could legally play from the dummy hand. He should pause in order to plan the play of the hand. Once a plan had been put together, he could then get on with the nitty-gritty of the card play.



Limit hold'em (and, indeed, many other forms of poker) also divides into two areas: preflop and post-flop play. The distinction is not quite as clear-cut as in bridge, but, nevertheless, the arrival of the flop is a key moment. I would suggest that it is good discipline for poker players to adopt a similar technique and pause for a moment when the flop comes down. In bridge, you may pause for as much as a minute or so in order to work out what you want to do. I am not suggesting that poker players sit around for this long – as your opponents will be denied their buzz from the action and will be quick to berate you in the chat box. However, pausing for a few seconds in order to try to visualise how the hand might develop is perfectly reasonable and may give you a clearer view of the best way to play.



Let's look at a simple example. In this particular case, our hero is in the big blind, and a tight, aggressive player open-raises from under the gun. This player plays by the book and will have a very decent hand for this raise. The next eight players fold and our hero is looking at the 5 5 and decides to call. Folding is probably preferable, as the hand is difficult to play post-flop, but never mind – he calls.



The flop is a rare pretty sight: 8 5 2 Barring some horrible accident, our hero is now certain to win, and the only question is how to extract the most money from his unfortunate victim. Our hero is thrilled and knows what to do. He check-calls the flop without a second thought, and then when a blank arrives on the turn, he gets in a check-raise. The other player has a big pair and pays him off on the turn and river. Our hero collects seven small bets post-flop and is pleased with himself. He remains blissfully unaware that he actually played the hand rather badly.



Had he paused briefly when hitting his huge flop, he may well have considered that there may be better ways to handle the play. A more sophisticated player will think more about how the pot might develop in different circumstances and will play the hand in a more profitable fashion. There are several key facts about this hand that we need to keep in mind before we form a plan:



1. The under-the-gun raiser has either a big pair or just overcards.



2. He is a tight, aggressive player, so we should get some action.



3. We are almost certain to win the hand.



4. We would like to play the hand in such a way as to maximize our profit regardless of the holding of the other player.



Once we have considered this, we can run through various scenarios and see how they play out.



First, let's look at the way our hero actually played the hand. When the other player has a big pair, our hero wins seven small bets, but what if the other player has just high cards? Now when our hero checks the turn, he may take a free card to avoid the danger of the check-raise. Even if he bets, and our hero raises, he will probably fold and our hero wins three small bets. If he takes the free card, he may make a crying call on the river, and again our hero probably makes three small bets. That's not bad, but can you do better?



How about check-raising on the flop? Let's see what is likely to happen. First, let's give the other player his big pair. Now he will think he is winning, as the check-raise represents a low pair or maybe a draw. He may well three-bet or possibly just call with the intention of raising on the turn. If he does three-bet, you can cap it and then lead out on the turn. Even if he then goes into check-call mode, you will end up with eight small bets. If he plays more aggressively (raising on the turn), you will end up winning a whole load more.



So, what if he has just big cards? He is certainly not going to fold after you check-raise, and he may even three-bet, suspecting that you are on a draw or low pair and wanting to create the possibility of a free card. Aggressive players will often make this play, and against a player who is pushing a small pair or a draw and is likely to back down here, it is a good play. Now you have already gotten three small bets out of him, and there is still a lot of play left in the hand. Even if he just calls on the flop after your check-raise, he may well look you up if the turn card is not scary. So, it appears that by check-raising the flop, you can probably pick up eight small bets when your opponent has a big pair and an absolute minimum of three small bets (and very likely more) when he has high cards.



Is there any other way to play? Well, you could try leading out on the flop. How will that work out? Again, let's consider each scenario in turn.



First, the other player has his big pair. Now it will be tempting for him to trap you by just calling the flop, waiting to raise on the turn. If this is his play, you will be able to three-bet on the expensive street and could end up winning nine small bets, assuming he calls and calls the river. If, instead, he raises the flop, you can three-bet and he will still find it hard to believe he is in trouble. It looks very much like you are making a strong, aggressive heads-up play with a good drawing hand. He may cap the pot, and then if a harmless-looking card (from his point of view) arrives on the turn, you can probably trap him with a check-raise. Your payoff could now climb to as many as 10 small bets.



Now let's give the other player high cards and see how it works out. Again, you lead out on the flop. Most strong, aggressive players will now raise to maintain control of the hand, and you can three-bet. He is certainly not going to fold here, and will at least call. Now if a blank comes on the turn and you bet, he will probably fold. However, a sneaky play would be to check, instead. This will present him with a dilemma. If you really are drawing, he will not want to give a free card and may bet. This is, of course, great news, and you now check-raise, thus winning a minimum of five small bets. However, even if he checks the turn, you can then bet the river and now he will be suspicious that you missed a draw and may well call. Again, you can pick up five small bets. The check on the turn after playing the flop strongly is a tactic that is more frequently seen in tournament no-limit hold'em, but under the right circumstances it can also be a profitable play in limit cash games.



Of course, we cannot be sure how our opponent will react to these different situations, but all of the plays discussed here are quite reasonable. The main point is that the "obvious" play of check-calling the flop and playing for the check-raise on the turn is almost certainly the weakest option, and other ways to play the hand will most likely have a greater expected value.



Our hero could not be expected to work all of this out in just five seconds, but a brief pause when the flop came down might have led him to consider that the obvious way to play the hand may very well not be the best way to play it.

Byron Jacobs is the author of How Good is Your Limit Hold Em? with Jim Brier. It's available through bookstores and at http://www.dandbpoker.com/. Byron may be contacted at [email protected].