Peeking Into My Crystal Ball

It's 2006 and poker is booming. In the past couple of years, we've seen a tremendous increase in the popularity of poker, an online poker explosion, and an ever-increasing number of televised poker events. The questions are, "Will the poker craze continue?" and, "What's going to happen in the future?" Here's a look into my crystal ball.



Poker is popular because it has what most people are looking for. It's a game of skill and continuous decision-making, luck is a factor, and it has the elements of risk and reward.



My crystal ball says that the poker industry will continue to grow for at least several more years. People of all ages are playing more poker today, but in terms of bolstering the industry in the long term, the right people are coming into poker – and that's young people. At high schools and colleges across the country, it's considered "cool" to play poker, and more and more young people are doing it.



Ten years ago, it wasn't possible to play poker anywhere at any time of the day. Because of the Internet, now it is. Internet poker has been a huge factor in bringing new people into poker. It's a growing industry that's only going to continue to grow. Think about it. Does anyone see Internet poker getting smaller in the next 10 years?



In addition to online poker companies going public (giving them accountability and credibility, and improving the trust factor), we should recognize that nearly every kid out of high school is computer literate, they've been playing video games since they've been 6 years old, they're all watching poker on television (where they're seeing guys in their 20s becoming millionaires), online sites are advertising everywhere, and the technology of online poker is only going to continue to get better. In a few years, you'll be able to play online poker on your phone or on some type of hand-held wireless computer, anywhere you are. All of these things point to continued growth for online poker.



My crystal ball also tells me that all is not rosy on the horizon, however. There should be a legitimate concern for too many people spending too much time playing poker and losing more than they can afford. In the end, everyone is responsible for his own actions, but the message we need to get out is, "Enjoy the game, but play responsibly and within your means."



Other mild problems for the future are tournament scheduling and TV saturation. You can't put on a tournament now that doesn't fall on top of an already existing event. This creates friction for event organizers and mild confusion for the players. And here's what's pretty amazing to me: Today, there are far more entrants in a $10,000 buy-in event than a $1,000 buy-in tournament. (A word to the wise is this: Don't put on a $10,000 buy-in event if it's not going to be televised.)



My crystal ball also tells me that there are rough rapids ahead for a number of players who play in many of the big buy-in tournaments. I'm guessing that 10 percent of players who follow the tournament circuit will do well, another 10 percent to 15 percent will barely make it, and the rest won't survive.



Honestly, I don't know how players continue to find the money to play in all of the $10,000 events. It wasn't too long ago that most players struggled to find $10,000 once a year for a poker tournament. Now, there are two or three $10,000 buy-in events a month! When you total that number with travel expenses, it takes a lot of money to play the circuit. If you don't win some serious money every year, you're not going to make it.



Incredibly, you can look for even bigger buy-in tournaments in the future. There are two $100,000 buy-in events (yes, 100K!) scheduled in early 2006. The first is in Australia in January, and the next is in Las Vegas in April. I'm heading down under to play in that $100,000 buy-in event myself, and will give you all of the details in an upcoming Card Player column.



Most players dream about being seen on television and winning a million dollars. I don't blame anyone for reaching out and trying to grab the brass ring. In fact, I think it's good to reach out and "go for it" once in a while. Trying to grab too many brass rings, however, is like trying to surface with an anchor tied to your ankles or jumping out of a plane without a parachute. It's not easy to survive.



I see a number of smiling faces in my crystal ball in 2006. Unfortunately, there are many that are not. Hopefully, you'll be one of the "smilers". Good luck!

Mike Sexton is the host of PartyPoker.com, a commentator on the World Poker Tour (which can be seen every Wednesday on the Travel Channel), and the author of Shuffle Up and Deal (which was on The New York Times best-seller list and can be purchased at http://www.cardplayer.com/). His e-mail address is [email protected].