Tony, Tony, Tony Has Done it Again

Yes, I know the words to the song are spelled differently, but I don't exactly want to be busted for copyright infringement. Besides, the subject of this column is Tony, spelled with a "y." He is a young, solid, up-and-coming player with whom I've logged quite a few hours. He also happens to be friendly, personable, and an all-around good guy.



In a recent $15-$30 session, he was seated to my right. A hand came up in which the action was folded to him preflop, and he raised. I was in the cutoff seat, looked down to find the Q Q, and promptly three-bet him. The button, a solid player who rarely got out of line, immediately capped it. The small blind (SB) and big blind (BB), who were both fairly loose, called the multiple raises, as did Tony and I. So, with $300 in the pot, we saw the flop fivehanded.



It came A 9 5. The blinds and Tony all checked. My immediate assumption was that with five people putting in $60 preflop, someone almost certainly had an ace, and if he did, he wasn't going anywhere. I checked, and the button checked behind me.



The turn was the 2, making a flush possible. The blinds checked, and this time Tony bet. I briefly considered my options, but decided that there wasn't too much I could do with that board with a preflop raiser betting into me and three players left to act behind me. I folded, while the button and BB both called.



The river was the 3, for a final board of A 9 5 2 3. The BB checked and Tony bet again.



"Damn!" muttered the button softly as he showed me his J J before laying it down.



"Yeah, I missed, too," said the BB as he showed the 8 7. "Take it down."



As the pot was being pushed toward Tony, he lifted his cards a little higher than usual and looked at them, and I knew what that meant. For one thing, he probably didn't mind if I caught a glimpse of them.



"Should I look?" I asked him.



Tony pushed the cards toward me in response, and I found myself looking at the 7 6 that had just won a $390 pot for him. I let out a low whistle, while a couple of the other players clamored to know what he had. I showed them the winning hand – 7 high – and gave Tony a friendly handshake before moving on to the next hand.



Our Conversation

Thinking about the bluff afterward, I realized that there were several circumstances that suggested that the bluff might work, and Tony confirmed my suspicions when I talked with him later. Indeed, his was in no way a shot-in-the-dark bluff.

Here were several of the things he correctly considered as the hand was taking place:

1. Tony knew that the button and I were both sensible players. Therefore, when we checked the flop, it was unlikely that either of us had an ace or were slow-playing a big hand. With $300 already in the pot and a flush draw on the board, we would not want to give a free card if either of us thought we had the best hand.



2. It was highly unlikely that anyone made a flush when the 2 hit on the turn. The flop contained the A, and chances were that neither the button nor I reraised preflop with two spades that did not include the ace. Meanwhile, the blinds were the type of players who likely would have bet a flush draw on the flop, and they certainly would have bet on the turn if they had completed one. Therefore, when the action was checked to Tony on the turn, he felt extremely confident that a made flush was not one of the hands he had to fear.



3. He was aware of his position relative to each of his opponents. He knew that the button and I were the two players most likely to have decent hands, having reraised and capped the action preflop. Thus, he knew that if he could get past us, his bluff might work. While we probably had decent pocket pairs, the loose players in the blinds could have called preflop with anything, and therefore might not have had the cards to keep him honest.



4. When he got called by two players on the turn, he knew that one of them definitely had a spade, if not both of them, and neither one of them would go anywhere if a fourth spade hit the river. Therefore, he was completely prepared to give up on his bluff attempt if a fourth spade came.



My Perspective
What did I like best about his bluff? I liked the way that he sold his hand, to the point where the button completely changed his attitude toward his own hand. The J J was no longer a made hand. In the button's eyes, it had become strictly a drawing hand. Once that draw didn't materialize, he didn't even seem to consider a call with his jacks. Tony had put him on the defensive, and that's what a good bluff does.



In some ways it was a shame that I folded on the turn, because when Tony bet the river, I began to suspect a bluff. He probably wasn't going to value-bet a hand like A-K or A-Q with obvious straight and flush possibilities staring him in the face. I suppose he could have decided to value-bet two pair or a set, but it was much more likely that he either made a flush or was outright bluffing. If I somehow could have made it to the river with my Q Q, then once the river was not a spade, I certainly would have paid to see what he was so proud of.



And then, once the hand was over, Tony lifted his cards higher than normal and took a look at them as he was being pushed the pot. It's a tell that no one talks about much. Watch a player who turns in his hand after winning a nice pot with no callers on the river. If he takes another look at his hand before throwing it in, he's usually either got the nuts or was on a total bluff. If it was the nuts, he looks back at his hand in regret, because no one paid him off.



If he looks at it with some pride, it's because he knows he just pulled off a sweet bluff. That's what Tony did, and I don't blame him one bit for being proud. Unfortunately, as far as I was concerned, it didn't feel good. No, it sure didn't feel good to me.

Matt Lessinger's Book of Bluffs is now available at http://www.cardplayer.com/. You can find other articles of Matt's in the Online Poker News newsletter, also at http://www.cardplayer.com/.